Dive into the archives.


  • To Annex or Annoy?

    A question to readers:

    I recently predicted that hostilities between Georgia and Russia will increase through the end of the year. This is due primarily to Kosovar independence now being used as an ostensible reason to ramp up aggression against Tbilisi. However, although official annexation is a possibility, using the alleged Kosovo precent (more here), it [...]

  • Hot Gets Hotter in the Caucasus

    Yesterday I mentioned the increasing belligerence of Russia and its aggression towards Georgia. Today, Moscow has threated force should Georgia attempt to retake its own territory militarily. The first assumption here, is that Georgia is somehow preparing for war, a charge which Moscow has almost certainly invented to buy a short term advantage. In doing [...]

  • The Wine or the Sword?

    Last year, while talking with several Georgian students outside an Orthodox church, they pointed at the large statue of a woman which towered over Tbilisi. It was “Mother Georgia” they said and in her hands were a bowl (for wine) and a sword. “We greet our friends with wine and our enemies with the sword” [...]

  • Deterence And the Missile Shield

    As is common with most things dominating the news cycle, important background explanations and underlying principles are often if not always left inadequately answered or not touched on at all. One such example is the US missile shield which now has the official backing of NATO and the issue of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. [...]

  • Russia shows its hand

    With the independence of Kosovo, it seemed that Russia had backed down on its threats to recognize other separatist regions and indeed it did. But it was unlikely there would be no reaction which left analysts wondering when the second shoe would fall. It has:

    The breakaway Abkhazia region in Georgia has called on the UN [...]

  • The Geography of Russia Through History

    And now with my latest post in the CA series on the historical borders of nations through history, I’d like to tackle the growth and recent waning of Russia’s territorial might over the last one thousand years.

    Similar Posts: Ethiopia – Poland – Armenia – Persia.

    NOTE: As always, these borders shifted over the years, [...]

  • It had to start sometime Despite beheading videos having gone out of style for Jihadis in Iraq, it seems that one Russian extremist group is starting to copy the tactic. According to Radio Free Europe,

    A Russian ultranationalist group has posted a video on its websites that appears to show the execution-style killing of two men from Central Asia and [...]

  • Managing State Failure

    In Brave New War, John Robb poses the question: “Will global guerrillas strive for a complete shutdown of Iraq’s infrastructure, or do they achieve more through a partial shutdown?”

    Previously, I argued that Russia was intentionally creating a seam-state curtain around it. This includes the conflicts in Transdniester, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Kosovo and Nagorno-Karabagh as well [...]

  • The Cost of Kosovo

    To the casual visitor in Kosovo, independence is everywhere. Shop owners and taxi drivers wax on about freedom and independence. Every third building is spray painted with Kosovo’s semi-official graffiti saying “Jo Negociata! Vetëvendosje!” meaning “No negotiations! Independence!” On the ground, the province has been operating as a de facto independent state since NATO’s intervention [...]

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