Be Like Reagan, says Kaplan. More specifically:

Iran is the new Eastern Europe during the last phase of the Cold War. Like Poland during the heady days of Solidarity in the early 1980s, the protestors in the streets of Iranian cities are not crazed ethnics demonstrating on behalf of some illiberal blood-and-soil nationalism, but enlightened, technologically savvy multitudes crying out for universal values of democracy and human rights. As such, they have captured the imagination of liberal intellectuals in the West. Even as the United States is tied down with 200,000 troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran promises to be the signal issue of our time.

Rare for Kaplan, he lays out a policy prescription for the US President—well, be like Reagan, but more specifically:

Given that the regime could last another month or another decade, what is President Barack Obama to do? Throughout his first year in office, he’s attempted the Nixonian détente approach: talk, work back channels, get the two governments to negotiate on the basis of naked national interests. That approach seems to have failed—less because it doesn’t make sense than because the Iranian regime is so internally divided that it can’t adequately respond. That leaves us with the Reaganite approach: be open to far-reaching talks, as President Ronald Reagan was with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, but do nothing to legitimize the Iranian system. And, throughout any discussions, adopt the rhetoric of democracy. Make it clear that Washington is on the same side of history as the demonstrators, but also make it clear that the door is open to negotiations with those in power. And to avoid the risk of undermining the demonstrators by overt American support of them (thus catering to regime’s basest conspiracy theories), Obama should talk about democracy only in general, albeit pointed, terms, without directly referring to Iran. That is, he should get the language of universal values out over Iranian air waves as much as possible: encouraging the demonstrators without specifically backing them.

We are not in control. But something wonderful has begun: nothing less than the most positive development in the Middle East since President Anwar Sadat went to Jerusalem. And while that daring gesture led only to a cold bilateral peace between Egypt and Israel, the Green Revolution in Iran carries the potential to unleash a true Islamic Reformation.

[Fabled to be founded by Alexander the Great, the Tajik city of Khojand is a mishmash of Soviet and Islamic ideas. Dorzhiev reports from the front. (See his earlier post here) – YH]

Could the clash of civilizations be resolved by a beard growing contest?

Khujand is the capital of Tajikistan’s northern Sogd province that presides over the country’s share of the Fergana Valley. The Fergana has a reputation as a Central Asian flashpoint owing to the convergence of multiple countries, ethnicities, and ideologies that cohabitate within its gerrymandered borders. In the past months it has grabbed headlines for skirmishes between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan that escalated into violence. Additionally there have been several IMU related incidents in the nearby Uzbek cities of Khanabad and Andijan fueling speculation of the repatriation of insurgents feeling the squeeze in the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan. Elsewhere in Tajikistan the apparent return of warlord Mullo Abdullo in the Rasht Valley has sparked fears that civil war era malcontents are regrouping in the Gharm region. Fueling the trend, officials announced June 24th the arrest of 40 alleged extremists in Dushanbe. Given these recent developments one might be tempted to think of Khujand as a potential Kandahar or Peshawar. Such fears are stoked when we read that in recent months police in Khujand have rounded up at least two dozen members of Hizb Ut-Tahrir — an outlawed political party who encourages the re-establishment of the Caliphate. Read the rest of this entry »

[And now a travel dispatch from the front lines of the Fergana Valley from guest blogger code-name: Dorzhiev (seems suspicious) – YH]

Chugging up the Syr Daryo at night we look ahead to see swirls of smoke dancing amidst beams of neon light. The scene reminds me of the one in Apocalypse Now where captain Willard and his men encounter a surreal encampment on the Mekong river; an ephemeral outpost that marks the last stop before they reach Kurtz. Having read an account of Curzon and Younghusband’s forays into Central Asia just hours before the association came naturally enough. The melodrama of the scene, however, was somewhat diluted by the fact that our vehicle was not a PT gun boat or imperial caravan, but an oversized paddle duck my guide and I had rented for the half hour. We had wanted to hire the blue water bicycle, but some punk had nicked it from us by jumping in line.

The neon lights reflecting off the water emanated from a forest of technicolor palm trees, and the mingling smoke wafted from nearby barbeques on the bank. Apparently eating grilled meat under gaudy lawn furniture is somewhat of an institution in Tajikistan. At least it’s a popular activity at the fair grounds in Khujand, the capital of Tajikistan’s share of the Fergana Valley. For those whose impression of Tajikistan is either of Soviet styled bureaucracy or rural, subsistent peasantry the sights and smells of the Saturday night carnival might seem out of place. Gaggles of unattended children run between students and young families strolling along the riverside laughing, snacking, or waiting to ride the “mystery machine”.

Surveying the crowed from atop my perch on a rickety Ferris wheel I could be looking down at Perry, Georgia or Des Moines, Iowa. The only giveaway that I am in a precinct of a one time Persian province is that the ride attendant is well groomed and competent. No Carnie hailing from Dothan, Alabama could approach this level of professionalism or number of solid teeth. Granted this attendant is probably a high level bureaucrat employed by the “Ministry of Rotating Attractions” whose wages are paid from an ever shrinking public coffer instead of Barnum & Bailey’s.

If there is one bummer to this surprisingly happy scene it is the knowledge of Tajikistan’s current economic woes seen in the light of the countries young demographic. Like many struggling countries, Tajikistan’s population is growing faster than its economy. What effect will this downturn have on a restless generation who in the past few years have seen their hopes of upward mobility diminish? Will the effects of inflation, failure of the cotton crop (a chief export), and the drying up of foreign remittance push them over the brink? On the whole Tajiks live subsistent enough to be fairly shock resistance. This is, however, not as true for the minority of urbanized Tajiks living in cities like Khujand and Dushanbe whose economies are more tertiary. In times of trouble these people are, paradoxically, less able to cope.

A pithy example of this phenomenon could be seen in the winter of 2007. For Tajikistan it was the coldest in 40 years, and made worse by further rationing of energy from neighboring Uzbekistan. Ironically, this had the worst effect on those living in cities who had become reliant on infrastructure for their heat. In contrast, the villagers who are accustomed to going without electricity proved more resilient. On the whole 85 years of communist rule, civil war, and poverty have toughened the Tajik people. How exactly they will weather this particular storm remains to be seen. Tonight, however, they seem more interested in cotton candy and popcorn. Like the T-shirt of the guy in front of me reads, “No money, no crisis”.

• Iranian envoy: CIA involved in Neda’s shooting? – Iran’s ambassador to Mexico has said that the death of online martyr Neda is “suspicious” and says that the US CIA may have been behind the killing. He said that the bullet was found in her head and that it was not of a type used in Iran. “I am not saying that now the CIA has done this. There are different groups. It could be the [work of another] intelligence service; it could be the CIA; it could be the terrorists. Anyway, there are people who employ these types of methods.”

• Iranian authorities arrest eight British embassy employees in Tehran – Iranian authorities arrested eight local employees of the British embassy in Tehran, accusing them of “playing major parts” in the recent unrest. All eight were members of the embassy’s political section. Britain expelled two Iranian diplomats from London last week after Tehran booted two British diplomats. Iranian authorities also ordered the BBC correspondent out of Tehran and arrested a British-Greek journalist. Iranian authorities have also targeted local staffers of the United Nations.

• Iran militia raids ‘target homes’ – Human Rights Watch has accused Iran’s volunteer Basij militia of carrying out night-time raids, destroying property in private homes and beating civilians. The New York-based group says the raids are an attempt to stop the nightly rooftop chants against the government. It also says satellite dishes are being confiscated to stop people from watching foreign news.

• Ahmadinejad blasts Obama for comments, meddling – Ahmadinejad struck back at Obama a day after the U.S. president praised protesters for showing “bravery in the face of brutality,” to which Ahmadinejad asked, “Why did he interfere and comment in a way that disregards convention and courtesy?” He said Western leaders who made “insulting and irrelevant comments will be put on a fair trial” by Iran at international gatherings. Ahmadinejad also vowed to take a tougher approach toward alleged meddling by the West during his second four-year term, which the government has said will begin this summer. “Without a doubt, Iran’s new government will have a more decisive and firmer approach toward the West,” Ahmadinejad said. “This time the Iranian nation’s reply will be harsh and more decisive” to make the West regret its “meddlesome stance,” he said.

Internet funny man Ze Frank recently got a mainstream gig at Time. His latest video talks about what it means to go green during the #iranelection. Check it out:

Also, I leave you with this amusing comic from John Cole of the Times Tribune (via laughing squid):

In my last post on the Iranian elections I asked:

[W]hat is going on in the countryside? Because it is those people that got Ahmadinejad elected in the first place. Are they rioting?

@Mutantfroginc linked to this article by Eric Hooglund, author of a recent article in MERIP entitled “Thirty Years of Islamic Revolution in Rural Iran”. He mulls over the following:

Is it possible that rural Iran, where less than 35 percent of the country’s population lives, provided Ahmadinejad the 63 percent of the vote he claims to have won? That would contradict my own research in Iran’s villages over the past 30 years, including just recently. I do not carry out research in Iran’s cities, as do foreign reporters who otherwise live in the metropolises of Europe and North America, and so I wonder how they can make such bold assertions about the allegedly extensive rural support for Ahmadinejad.

I guess I have been called out. However, the article does not provide any hard numbers, and furthermore, the scope is only around Shiraz — a city where your correspondent was once lost alone with only three American dollars to his name. But the viewpoint is based on the experience of a longtime researcher (I’ll have to read his full article in MERIP) and provides some insight into the rural perspective and the issue at the heart of the protests, which some may be surprised has nothing to do with building better relations with the West. Summed up:

[The] political elite is divided over how Iran should be governed: a transparent democracy where elected representatives enact laws to benefit the people or a ‘guided democracy’ in which a select few make all decisions because they do not trust the masses to make the right ones. This astute political insight is one that is prevalent in Iran but seems to have escaped the notice of the Western reporters who are trying to explain Iran’s political crisis with resort to simplistic stereotypes.

This via shloky on Twitter. I have been following it closely for the past couple of days. There is lots going on under the #iranelection hashtag. I am glad Twitter rescheduled its maintenance so as not to stifle news coming out of Iran.

I am still waiting for some solid evidence of election thievery. Speculation based on feelings in the urban centers of Iran have failed western analysts so many times over the past 30 years. Tehran would have erupted even if Ahmadinejad’s results were the same. It is a positive sign that protests have made it out to other places such as Esfahan and Masshad. But I have to ask: what is going on in the countryside? Because it is those people that got Ahmadinejad elected in the first place. Are they rioting?

Nothing seems to have come from the leaked memo showing Ahmadinejad coming in third place. However, we are beyond that now. I think the protests have taken on a different theme. This is no longer about elections and has become about repression. The protests have become a reaction to a police-state crackdown.

Enough rambling. Just would like to say I hope my friends in Tehran and up north are doing well.

Addendum: (2009-06-16 18:14 PM) The BBC reports that Iran’s Guardian Council says it is ready to recount disputed votes.

Addendum 2: (2009-06-16 21:12 PM) fivethirtyeight.com has loads of indepth analysis of Iranian election numbers throughout the past. Nate Silver reflects my skepticism in an interview with Threat Level:

I would characterize the statistics as ambiguous. But there certainly is not a smoking gun as far as what I’ve found.

So I happened across this article and was prepared to post it with a comment on how barbarous this Saudi proposal appeared:

A Saudi inventor’s proposal to insert semiconductors subcutaneously in visitors and remotely kill them if they misbehave will not be patented in Germany.

On Wednesday, a German Patent Office spokeswoman said the application was received on October 30, 2007 and published 18 months later, as required by law, in a patents database. But inventions that are unethical or a danger to the public are not recognized.

Reporters said the document proposed that tiny semiconductors be implanted or placed by injection under the skin of people so their whereabouts could be tracked by global-positioning satellites. This could be used to prevent immigrants overstaying.

A model B of the system would contain a poison such as cyanide, which could be released by remote control to “eliminate” people if they became a security risk. The document said this could be used against terrorists or criminals.

a) Saudi Arabia hardly patents anything;
b) to make such a chip that cannot be readily removed would be a real challenge (see: James Bond in Casino Royale);
c) to have enough power to deliver a lethal dose of anything in such a device would be a real challenge; and
d) to have an antenna that could pick up a signal remotely seem highly unlikely.

Of course, such tracking chips exist in pets, but you have to get REAL close to detect them.

But that’s just the common sense test. I did a patent search, and there it is no sign of such a device. Note that EU and WO Patents get a published review, and if a Patent has a review it will have an A1 or A3 at the end.

As this is an Iranian news site making the Saudis out to look like barbarians, maybe that’s what’s behind the story…?

After revealing some cloak and dagger tales of American covert ops in Iran in recent years, New York Times Washington bureau chief David Sanger asks a great question: Will President Obama stop covert ops in Iran? Or will the weight of history push him to continue Bush’s legacy?

Is “legacy” an important factor in the calculus of being the POTUS? People said Bush was particularly conscious of his legacy. Can anyone provide historical examples of presidents choosing legacy over national interest that will let us gauge what President Obama will do?

By the way, the clip resides on fora.tv, an online community that collects smart and provocative videos from across the interwebs for discussion and debate. It is a kind of an open source TED, or a thinking man’s YouTube. Check it out.

The increasing likelihood that Iran will successfully acquire a nuclear weapon cannot be avoided. While this author does not predict with certainty that it will happen, nor believe the US and EU shouldn’t do everything in its power to stop it, it is a real possibility. Therefore, policy discussions should also begin to think about the potential implications of a nuclear Iran and consider how the US and others can mitigate the effects thereof.

North Korea has not yet set off a cascade of proliferation, largely because the potential new nuclear states are all US allies (South Korea, Japan, perhaps Taiwan). The same is not true of all the Middle East. In addition, states may react not only to Iran, but to their perceived reaction of others, i.e. Egypt reacting to Iran directly as well as to its belief Saudi Arabia will respond with its own program. Below is a regional map of what a nuclear Iran could lead to:

And to give readers something else to think about, the following countries are currently giving serious consideration to nuclear energy in the near term (within 10 years): Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Turkey, Vietnam.

As if that were not troubling enough, the following countries have long term plans or studies underway: Algeria, Australia, Chile, Georgia, Ghana, Jordan, Libya, Malaysia, Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen.

This is not to say that all or even most will move forward. Nuclear energy (even for peaceful purposes) requires a massive financial investments in infrastructure, technology, training and more. Additionally, some states may decide against it at various states of their programs, as has happened many times in the past.

Therefore, in the event that Iran does indeed acquire a nuclear weapons capability, which we’ll define as the generally agreed perception that Iran does (whether or not it has tested), the United States and Europe need to think long and hard about instruments of state power which can be applied to prevent a cascade of nuclear weapons states and/or to ensure that peaceful nuclear energy (a legal right of every NPT signatory) stays peaceful and secure.