I noted a few days ago that Turkey was preparing for further incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan as well as anti-PKK operations at home. BBC has just reported that Turkish troops have entered Iraq

Turkish forces have crossed into Iraq to launch an operation against Kurdish rebels said to be sheltering there, the Turkish military says.The Turkish army, which has thousands of soldiers on the border, said troops had entered the north on Thursday evening and were pursuing rebels. It promised the force would “return home in the shortest time possible after its goals have been achieved”.An air and artillery campaign preceded the land operation, the military added.

[...] Suspected camps of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants were targeted between 1000 (0800 GMT) and 1800 (1600 GMT) on Thursday, according to a statement on the general staff website.”Following this successful offensive, a cross-border ground operation backed by the Air Force was launched at 1900 [1700 GMT],” said the statement.Turkey has carried out at least one, smaller ground incursion, as well as frequent air and artillery strikes, against suspected PKK targets in Iraq since parliament authorised the army to act in October 2007.

This is what is typically called a hot-pursuit operation which is permitted under existing agreements, though one still wonders about the timing. On the other hand, this author is asking himself hte question now whether the PKK would have anything to gain by tying up such a large amount of the Turkish army on the border. Just as al-Qaeda and the Taleban hope to string us along in Iraq and Afghanistan and slowly bleed us, what would keep the PKK from trying the same? A small incursion once or twice a month would be enough to keep the Turkish Army on the border, raise costs and distract the country and prevent domestic progress and reform. Indeed, it would empower the military and secularists who at the moment have become a very vocal and concerned minority.

FP Passport notes an article in the Turkish news regarding military preparations for further strikes within both Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkish Kurdistan.

The TSK is currently developing its strategy for the operation, which will most likely be launched in the middle of March. The ground operation is planned to be the final strike against the terrorist organization. It will follow upon a series of aerial attacks that have seriously disrupted the organization, bringing it to the brink of collapse. Reports indicate that communications between PKK leaders was seriously disrupted by the operations and that the distrust that emerged following the severing of communications has brought the organization to the edge of dissolution. The TSK has set up military bases at high elevations in the Cudi, Gabar, Küpeli, Tanin and Kato mountains, strategic points used by the PKK militants for infiltration into Turkey. The bases will include helicopter landing facilities, thermal cameras and artillery equipment.

What FP Passport fails to ask is why after numerous air strikes and incursions is Turkey moving against against northern Iraq? The official line is of course that it is aiming a final blow at the PKK (sounds like an Israeli phrase these days), which could very well be true. Information is sketchy regarding how much damage was actually inflicted on the PKK. The second possibility is that Turkey’s initial strikes were not successful and they are moving to correct past mistakes and keep the PKK on the defense. Lastly, the move may come as a “Wag the Dog” style national security diversion from domestic issues such as the headscarf. Indeed, the only think that could distract the Turkish military from the evils of covered hair is the Kurdish independence movement. I’ll continue to follow the issue and watch for signs as to the nature and reasoning behind the preparations.

As as a follow up on my previous post on rumors that the PKK is moving to Nagorno-Karabagh, Jamestown has a new article on the same subject that is well worth reading.

Reviving a Forgotten Threat: The PKK in Nagorno-Karabakh

By Anar Valiyev

The decades-long war between the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Turkish army has had a significant impact on Azerbaijani politics. Being a staunch ally of Turkey and suffering from problems of separatism and terrorism itself, Azerbaijan has always expressed its full support for the counter-terrorist actions of its neighbor and has even offered its assistance. The recent escalation of the conflict in southeastern Turkey and northern Iraq has not left the Azerbaijani establishment passive. This time, however, the conflict has directly affected the interests of Azerbaijan. The reason is the alleged decision of the PKK’s leadership to move its bases from the Qandil mountain range in Iraqi Kurdistan to the Armenian-occupied regions of Nagorno-Karabakh (Azeri Press Agency, December 18; UPI, November 30; Today’s Zaman, November 30). Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani press has carried reports about the possible creation of a Kurdish autonomous district in the Armenian-occupied Lachin and Kelbajar regions (Day.az, December 3). While some analysts consider the prospect of establishing a new Kurdish state in the Caucasus as mere fiction, other experts do not deny the possibility of such a scenario developing. Before moving to an analysis of the current situation, it is worthwhile to look at the historical aspects of the problem.

Read the full article at Jamestown.

Today’s German Tagesschau hints at something (German link) I’ve also been wondering, namely, why the Turks are claiming such wild success having deal “strong blows” and stood up against terrorists when almost nobody has been killed and no proof has been given that anything of value was hit.

It is one thing for the Kurds to deny much has been hit but even the Turks have said little about the concrete accomplishments of the mission. Their public statements’ focus has been on taking action, doing whatever is necessary and saving face. Has the reams of intelligence the US is giving Turkey been bad? Have the PKK simply moved, having had weeks of warning from Turkey? Has the US tipped off the Kurds in order to keep both sides happy and find a face saving solution? At the moment it is hard to say. It is exceedingly unlikely that the PKK did not disperse from the Qandil mountains. Having little infrastructure in the first place, there was little to pack up and move and as a successful guerrilla group, melting back into the environment is what they do best.

As Turkey’s limited raids and air strikes continue, it will be interesting to see the ratio of rhetoric to actual success. At the moment, it would seem the former is far greater than the latter.

Via The Memri Blog

The text says “Northern Iraq”

Disappointed with the weak show of support from America and Europe, Turkey is now looking further east for support for its planned operations in Iraq. And they need look no further than Iran, also battling its own Kurdish independence movement. Al Jazeera reports that the foreign ministers of Iran and Turkey are increasingly expressing their mutual interest in solving the problem:

In Iran, Babacan reiterated that threat, after his meeting with Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian foreign minister, but said it was one of many options. “We have different instruments. We can use diplomacy or we can resort to military means,” he said following talks with Mottaki. “All of these are on the table.”

“The Turkish people have lost their patience… We are asking all our friends to support us in this endeavour, our fight against terror.” Iran has in recent weeks been echoing Turkey’s frustration over the failure of the authorities in the north of Iraq to crack down on the PKK, though it has drawn short of backing an incursion.

Another Kurdish group, Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), which is affiliated with the PKK, has been responsible for deadly attacks on security forces in northwestern Iran in recent months. “I think that we will be able to overcome these small grouplets,” Mottaki said. “There are various ways of going about this. We hope our co-operation will allow us to solve this as soon as possible.” Babacan thanked Iran for its help in fighting the PKK and said both foreign ministers had discussed continuing the co-operation during their meeting.

Failing to find Western support for an issue which is anyway a regional one, it is only natural Turkey has turned to a neighbor and one which also has a sizable Kurdish minority. Some may see this as continued proof of Turkey’s move eastwards and its subversion by Islamists. Turkey has been an integral part of the Middle East since the beginning of the Ottoman empire in the 1400s. The danger, however, is that if the West continues to fail to provide Ankara with support and reassure it about future support, Turkey may start forging more serious diplomatic ties with less than savory neighbors like Syria and Iran, both of whom are hostile to European and American interests.

The Turkish government is currently hoping to help quench its public’s thirst for action and to protect its regional interests. Though the situation is somewhat suspect and some of the current attacks have been nowhere near Iraq (often in the Tunceli region far away) and Turkey is likely pursuing ulterior motives, the Kurdish and PKK issue is nevertheless a top national concern. While the US and Iraq are unlikely to launch any large scale operation against the PKK for a number of reasons, publicly exhausting realistic options is vital for maintaining ties with Turkey and helping reassure her that a successful Kurdish region in Iraq is not a threat but potentially a positive external influence. Otherwise, though economically integrated in the West, we may indeed see a slow political drift eastwards should the West be chronically unable to fulfill Turkey’s needs.

As the Turkish-Iraqi tensions rise and small scale cross border operations begin, let’s examine Turkey’s situation and options at the moment.

First of all, much fuss was made about the recent weak agreement between Iraq and Turkey which did not include an allowance for Turkish troops to cross into Iraq in so-called “hot pursuit” operations against the PKK. Indeed, Turkey has gone to great lengths to secure some kind of international understanding for intended operations. Behind the rhetoric and seeming belligerence, lies the fear of the government that this could further isolate Turkey from the EU and US and that it may one day have to recognize the PKK or autonomous Kurds in Iraqi Kurdistan in some form of official negotiations or through official agreements. While fully in its rights to engage in military operations in Iraq, it nevertheless is seeking some kind of official blessing.

Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Çiçek said today that “We have to explain to the rest of the world that we are right. If we don’t, we might be in a position where we are wrong. At the moment, we are working to conduct good diplomacy—or the price we’ll have to pay will be dear.” Meanwhile, the Turkish public is becoming increasingly angry and feels action is long overdue.

Yet for all the talk of a coming attack, bullets and bombs are already flying. According to the Turkish news:

Turkish warplanes flew as deep as 20 kilometers into Iraqi territory and some 300 ground troops advanced about 10 kilometers, killing 34 PKK terrorists right after a deadly attack on a military unit on Sunday, which claimed the lives of 12 soldiers. [...] yesterday that F-16 jets flew sorties up to 50 kilometers inside Iraq. Heavy artillery also pounded positions inside the Kurdish-administered north, he said.

Turkey has regularly launched small attacks inside Iraqi territory and moreover maintains small forward outposts there as well. The real question, not noted in the news, is of scale. Driving this point home are the nearly 100,000 Turkish soldiers now on the border. In addition to determining the scale of an attack, the increasing Turkish threats and pressure are meant to help internationalize the conflict and gain support for its operations at home and abroad. At the moment, both the US and EU are unofficially sympathetic to the Kurdish cause.

Meanwhile, Turkey is pushing hard for a political settlement meeting with Iraqi and American officials in a last ditch effort to keep the peace. A large scale invasion would almost certainly be a disaster. The Turks would not only face experienced guerrillas on their home turf, but potentially the approximately 100,000 strong Peshmerga who are also battle hardened and have decades of experience fighting Saddam in the same area. The Turks are just as afraid of a large scale invasion as everyone else. RFERL deails what the Iraqi Kurds may be after in letting the situation escalate:

The observers say the recognition demands would at a minimum include accepting the KRG’s representatives as officials. They might also include withdrawing Turkish opposition to including oil-rich Kirkuk as part of the Kurdish self-rule region.

On top of all this, Forward Deployed notes that the whole situation doesn’t make much sense in the first place from the Turkish side.

Many Iraqi Kurds also believe that the Turkish government overplays the attention they give to how many PKK units are operating in northern Iraq in order to deflect attention away from the fact that the vast majority of PKK members operate freely in eastern Turkey and is where most of the attacks are launched from.

I think this fact is obvious considering the fact the PKK is launching these attacks on the Turkish military and killing so many soldiers because the Iraqi Turkish border is very open. The Turks supposedly have around 60,000 soldiers deployed on their border with Iraq and yet PKK terrorists are walking through open territory and sneaking up and killing well armed and trained Turkish soldiers? It doesn’t make sense which leads me to believe these attacks are actually being launched against the military from within Turkey itself and then the fighters are fleeing across the border after the attack.

So what are Turkey’s options?

1) Small scale attacks, air raids and special ops
2) Sanctions including closing the Habur border which would severely damage southeast Turkey as well.
3) Large scale ground offensive
4) Establishment of some kind of buffer zone inside Iraq
5) Secure a political agreement with Iraq (and the US) whereby PKK bases are attacked or a few token fighters captured and extradited for public trial in Turkey to satiate people’s thirst for revenge.

With America reluctant to help, Europe unlikely to give its blessing and Turkey refusing direct talks with the Kurdish Regional Government, vital communication seems to be lacking and the less of it, the more chance there is of war.

While pundits, bloggers, politicians and hacks conjecture as to the contents of the Petraeus Report coming out tomorrow, I’m confident about what you won’t find. While progress has been made in al-Anbar which is sure to be the focus of the report (as President Bush’s recent visit to the region assured), the unsung success is that of the Kurds. After all, how many readers are familiar with the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) official tourism site?

Also, of all the 55 million dollar 5 star hotels going up in the world, would it surprise you to hear about one going up in Erbil funded by Lebanese investors? That’s on top of the massive new mall with thousands of shops this blogger visited during his visit in March. What about the American University of as-Suleymaniyah? How about the flights from Vienna, Frankfurt, Dubai, Istanbul, Amman, Beirut, Tehran, Damascus to Iraqi Kurdistan?

Here are a few pictures from my visit in March (yes yes, the official travelogue is coming…one of these days). The real question is: Why is the great success in Iraq the country’s biggest secret? Why hasn’t the US trumpeted it more?

Sidenote: The Economist has a fantastically thorough and well balanced article on Iraqi Kurdistan. Thanks to Chief Wiggum for the head’s up.

According to American Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, the referendum on the status of Kirkuk will likely be delayed.

“There is a general realization out there that, as a practical matter, it is going to be very hard to stick to the original timetable,” US Ambassador Ryan Crocker told Reuters in Baghdad late on Thursday.”The timetable for the end of the year was set with an expectation that the preparations would move ahead in a way (that) they haven’t,” he said.

This doesn’t bode well. The Kurds have been waiting patiently not just for Kirkuk but for the rest of the country to get its act together. As the violence that affects mostly Baghdad and environs heads north, this area will clearly have more to gain by joining the safety of Kurdistan than remaining part of the rest of Iraq. If the vote is indeed delayed and violence escalates, we could see the people themselves demand it, which would of course be a demand not just to join Kurdistan but to increase their safety. On the other hand, that would provide excellent political cover as well. Time will tell.

From July 3rd’s NYT, Thomas Friedman writes:

If the surge fails to pave the way for a Sunni-Shiite power-sharing agreement in Iraq, then we have to remove our troops from their areas and relocate them to the border to contain their civil war. But we should also talk to the Kurds about setting up a base in Kurdistan and buttressing its development. Kurdistan is not Switzerland (still too much corruption). But it does have the cultural and institutional foundations — including an active Parliament, vibrant newspapers, open universities and free markets — for a decent democratizing example in the heart of the Arab-Muslim world. Many Iraqis have already fled to Kurdistan to find safety or even vacation in its thriving hotels. A U.S. base in Kurdistan would protect it from invasion by Turkey, and assure Turkey that an autonomous Kurdistan will not be a problem for it.

Nothing could justify the staggering cost of the Iraq war anymore, but if we could get one decent example implanted in the neighborhood, even a small one, at least it wouldn’t be a total loss. The example set by little, progressive, modernizing, globalizing Dubai has had a big impact on other countries in the Gulf. A thriving, progressive Kurdistan could do the same. If such an example doesn’t make Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites come to their senses, it will at least be a mirror that shows them every day how utterly wasteful, senseless and self-destructive their civil war is.

Sounds awfully familiar.