Ottawa remains silent on the recognition of Kosovo’s self-declared independence. Prime Minister Harper is in a tricky position here. Canada has its own minority that could unilaterally declare its independence. Official recognition of Kosovo could set a precedent for a future Quebec-separatist campaign. The international recognition that Kosovo has received has encouraged the separatist movement which has been waning over the past few years. International recognition may now supersede the need for national referendum.

Albanians in Canada agree that Kosovo is like Quebec, but in the opposite sense. They say Kosovo’s independence shouldn’t raise fears about Quebec. Canadian Serbs say Kosovo is to Serbia as Quebec is to Canada, and cannot unilaterally separate. This dilemma is at the root of the Canadian government’s slow reaction. Liberal Party leader Stéphane Dion, a Quebecer himself, wants Canada to recognize Kosovo but dismisses the arguments of Quebec separatists.

After some deliberation and hand-wringing, Canada will likely recognize Kosovo as it did Montenegro in 2006. There are more important issues preventing Quebec from separating, such as the fact that much of Quebec is native land and they are not likely to go quietly.

As expected, Kosovo declared its independence today. Leaving political analysis for the moment, I just returned from downtown Stuttgart where a large crowd of Kosovars held an independence celebration. There was champagne, dancing and Albanian and American flags as far as the eye could see. Your trusty correspondent naturally had his camera to capture this historic day.

I met many Kosovars who repeated the joyous handshakes, hugs and praise that I’d heard while visiting last year. American flags were second only to Kosovar flags of course and several German and British flags were flown as well in recognition for their role in the NATO liberation of Kosovo.

After 9 years and many false starts, Kosovo’s day has finally come and although independence will be supervised, political problems will persist and life won’t be transformed overnight, I believe that for today at least, we should all stop to celebrate and reflect on the very good deed done by NATO and the very real, positive and long lasting effect it has had on a people and a new country. With all the conflicts and problems that we have today, and that we constantly discuss on this site, I was truly moved by the outpouring of emotion and celebration and seeing Kosovars declaring their independence today and was especially proud that my country took part in an act of good in our troubled world. Every American should be.

So here it is, Kosovar Independence as celebrated in Germany:

As of this afternoon, map makers will be forced to add yet another country to their product: Kosovo. At 15:00 today in Kosovo, the parliament will convene and vote on independence but that is merely a formality. The outcome has long been certain as I found out quickly while visiting in May.

By tonight we should expect a flurry of recognition by the US, UK and most of the EU. Cyprus and Romania will stay out. Yet, the real question isn’t as much what will become of Kosovo as the thousands of international troops there leave little to the imagination. No, the real uncertaintly is that of Russia’s reaction. Will Moscow suddenly recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both breakaway regions in Georgia?

In addition, although the massive international troop presence will contain and hopefully prevent violence within Kosovo, I worry that civil unrest could take hold in Serbia as the government is powerless to react with substantive measures. A blockade and perhaps even power cuts have been predicted. We’ll soon find out.

‘”No Negotiations. Independence!” (in Albanian) is a slogan spraypainted all over Kosovo. I’ll leave readers with some of my collection of pictures of that.

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This weekend’s elections in Serbia brought a sigh of relief to those all over the EU. Boris Tadic was victorious over nationalist Tomislav Nikolic. While most news outlets are emphasizing Serbia choosing Europe and pro-Western, it would behoove them to remember that with regard to Kosovo, the entire country is of one mind. Tadic, who supports Serbia’s joining the EU is just as anti-Kosovar independence as his challenger. His victory means only that Europe and America can likely expect someone a bit more levelheaded and less likely to make any sudden and dangerous moves.

Yet, Kosovo’s breaking away will present an enormous challenge for both Tadic and his party. Should they not deal with the move in a way that satisfies the general public, or rather should Serbs not be pleased with how they think the government handled it, Tadic could be out not and another dangerous “stabbed in the back” myth could be created by Serbian nationalists as happened in post WWI Germany.

Serbia remains the key to stability in the Balkans precisely because it is torn between integration and revenge. While the rest of the former Yugoslavia has come to terms with its past and is confidently moving forward, Serbia has not. Indeed, another real danger largely disregarded in the media is not only the chance for violence after Kosovar independence but the chance for civil unrest and violence within Serbia. Only time will tell. Kosovo claims to be ready to declare independence in the next few days.

While Americans ponder Pearl Harbor Day, December 7th, Europe is pondering December 10th, the day that will finally end negotiations over Kosovo and either on which, or shortly after which, Kosovo is expected to unilaterally declare independence. While around 15,000 NATO troops will remain in Kosovo to maintain peace regardless of what happens, a great deal of speculation exists as to what will happen. Large scale war has been ruled out by Serbia itself although other routes such as boycotts of countries recognizing Kosovo, shutting off services such as water and electricity and low level guerrilla fighting between Serbs and Albanians in northern Kosovo are all possibilities.

As things stand at the moment, the Contact Group has officially turned in their report stating that no compromise could be reached between the two sides. The report will be forwarded to the Security Council tomorrow and will be officially discussed on the 19th. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

In the mean time, I invite you to browse the archives on past articles related to Kosovo such as “Could Kosovo Make or Break Europe” and “But What Kind of Multilateralism.”

Almost two decades after the Cold War and with some looking to Europe to play a larger role in world affairs, a pesky little province of two million just refuses to go away. Eight years after the Kosovo War in which NATO troops largely consisting of the US and Germany intervened to protect Kosovar Albanians from genocide at the hands of the Serbs, progress on the ground moves constantly forward while political progress remains stalled.

As negotiations, if they can be called such, remain stalled on the final status of Kosovo, the December 10th deadline looms. As previously reported, talks have been moved outside of the United Nations and are currently underway in the Contact Group. The deadline for resolving Kosovo’s final status has been set for December 10th, 2007, barely a month away. While some reports in the German news claim more progress is being made than most expect, the world continues to expect independence. The little experiment called Yugoslavia will finally, finally be laid to rest.

Slovenia is gone. Croatia is gone. Bosnia is gone. Macedonia is gone. Montenegro is now gone. Only Kosovo remains and historical arguments aside, if Balkan borders were politicians, they’d be the worst flip-floppers of all time. The time of large scale violence is over. There will be no war. Serbia will be angry. There will be a nationalist backlash. Yet, the price of isolation will ultimately be too high as regional integration and development accelerates.

As the deadline looms and Prishtina has made clear it plans to declare independence with or without the world’s blessing, a more interesting and indeed more important question arises: Will Europe start deciding its own future? Or will one of the most important decisions of recent years be made by the United States?

If talk is cheap, then Europe is a low-cost-country for political idealism and empty rhetoric. Kosovo will be a test not of the UN, international law or even of one wills, one that demands action and the greater and long term assuming of responsibility. It is a line in the sand. Is Europe ready to cross it?

Reading the news daily can often be as funny as the comics section. Today was no exception when I came across the following article in Der Speigel’s English edition:

Serbia Says Use of Force Is an Option in Kosovo

Kosovo’s Albanian-dominated government seems set to declare its independence from Serbia. Some Western governments appear to back this move, but now Serbia is weighing its options—and military options—in such an event. Serbia is prepared to use force to prevent Kosovo gaining independence. Serbia is ready to use force to prevent Western states from recognizing Kosovo as an independent state, a senior Serbian official warned on Wednesday.

Dusan Prorokovic, Serbia’s state secretary for Kosovo, outlined an array of tough measures to squeeze Kosovo that he said Serbia was ready to take in the event that Kosovo’s Albanian-dominated government declared independence and was recognized by Western governments. These included the possible deployment of Serbian forces to the province, the sealing of its borders, and a trade embargo.

Any military action against Kosovo would naturally involve both Kosovar and foreign forces there including the French, Germans, Italians and Americans. So setting aside the absurdity of a poor and already badly beaten Serbia starting a war it has no chance of winning, what in the world are politicians thinking?

Serbia must on one hand, continue to act tough not only to save face but to appease its population and maintain support for the government. On the other hand, although Serbia has a less than 0% chance of winning, the threat of force may be enough to make some European states back down or rethink their options. The last thing most EU states want is another mess in Balkans and a violent one at that and could be willing to compromise as both governments and their citizens have little stomach for foreign deployments and war given the ongoing hostilities in Iraq.

As absurd and hollow as the threat seems, counting on European cowardice isn’t necessarily a bad bet.

An interesting development in the forever-stalled final status of Kosovo. Back in July, RFERL reported that the issue may be moved from the UN to the Contact Group for the Balkans, formed back during the war in Bosnia.

However, the move to turn to the Contact Group may be inspired less by the hope of reviving talks between Serbia and Kosovo, than an attempt to outmaneuver Russia. Unlike in the UN Security Council, Russia has no veto power in the Contact Group.

Alain Deletroz, a vice president of the International Crisis Group, an influential think tank, says that resorting to the Contact Group may also help the EU to circumvent its own internal divisions on Kosovo. Several EU member states are thought to harbor doubts on Kosovo’s independence, although a tenuous consensus exists at the EU level to support it.

Deletroz said in a briefing in Brussels on July 17 that the “key EU member states” in the group—Britain, Germany, France, and Italy—could assume the responsibility for an EU decision, allowing skeptics to lie low.

A few days ago, RFERL sat down with the US envoy to the Contact Group who made it clear that this is the final step as far as the United States is concerned.

US and EU recognition of an independent Kosovo is essentially all that UN approval is, minus Russia. The UN will continue to be the primary forum of debate and discussion, however ad hoc groups of like minded (i.e. Western) powers will continue to be the real engine of decision making (NATO, EU, G8). Evoking TS Eliot, this is the way the UN ends, not with a bang but a whimper.

1389 still casts a long shadow over the Balkans from Belgrade to Prishtina. Today, The Battle of Kosovo is commemorated in Serbia and to give away the ending, the Serbs lose. Yet, what is the importance of a major loss in a seemingly obscure place and time? After all, Americans celebrate July 4th and not losing Vietnam. Germans celebrate reunification and not their defeat in WWII. Similarly though, the Serb loss in 1389 has left a long lasting imprint on Serbian culture, history and their perspective. This still shapes the way Serbs view Kosovo, which is radically different from the seemingly “logical” way in which the West tends to see it.

By 1389, the Ottoman Turks had become a formidable power and were continuing their expanasion into the Balkans. Frequent raids and skirmishes came ever closer to the then Kingdom of Serbia. Although previously, the Serbs has tried to push the Turks out of the Balkans, by now they were on the offensive. Prince Lazar of Serbia took on Ottoman Sultan Murad I and although both rulers didn’t live through the battle, Ottoman forces defeated the Serbs. Despite being subjugated and made part of the Ottoman Empire for five centuries, the battle of Kosovo slowly took on mythical proportions becoming a central theme in Serbian culture and history. But why? As Mark Gottfried wrote,

What then is the importance of the Battle of Kosovo? It was a cultural defeat, a religious defeat. It became the symbol of Turkish power and Serbian defeat, not to be forgotten . . . revenge was always over the horizon. The grand Serbian culture, which flourished under Tzar’s Dushan and Milutin, was only a memory, after Serbia’s knights, armies and hopes died at the field of Kosovo.

Indeed, it seems a strange event to celebrate or even reenact as is done every year. But, it provided and still provides the basic foundations of nationalism. Nationalism at its core, like religion, needs a myth of better times, whether it be a lost golden age or a bright future, it provides those in need with identity and purpose. The Battle of Kosovo in the Serbian mind, represents

the glory of pre-Kosovo Serbia; the necessity of struggle against tyranny; and the essential link between the Kosovo ethic and Christianity, which was expressed most clearly in the heroic ideal of self-sacrifice for the faith and for Serbia, the futility of betrayal, and the assuredness of resurrection.

Robert Kaplan, in Balkan Ghosts, notes that the Balkan peoples tend to see history as circular, always expecting their time to come again (i.e. Greater Serbia, Greater Croatia, Greater Albania etc.) whereas we in the West see it as more linear. The Battle of Kosovo is one symptom of that phenomenon and regardless of how much Americans or Europeans can sympathize with the Serbs or understand the significance of this cultural myth, it is very much a factor in today’s ongoing conflict over Kosovo.

For the United States and Europe, Kosovo is fairly straightforward. The Serbs, in the culmination of ongoing crackdowns and oppression of the Albanian Kosovars, initiated a deliberate campaign of ethnic cleansing in the region to demographically retake the province. Today everyone (minus the Serb minority) wants independence. Conclusion: You don’t get to commit mass murder and ethnic cleansing and then lay claim to an area. Serbia loses.

Yet, from Serbia’s perspective, no matter how heinous their crimes (which many do not admit or see as such), the war in Kosovo was very much the same as their famous battle in 1389 which pitted the brave Serbs against the Muslim hordes. As it is human nature to fall prey to the confirmation bias, i.e. seeking out information that confirms the conclusion you want to find, the Serbs see NATO and the West as colluding with Muslims to steal Serbian land. No matter that Serbia’s actions were condemned by Christans and Muslims alike, and that the West has no interest in Kosovo, Serbs see their worst historical fears as being confirmed.

An independent Kosovo is far more than a territorial loss, but a cultural and historical attack. Although there will probably never be any meeting of the minds regarding the future status of Kosovo, it would behoove the West to take the underlying concerns, fears and emotions of Serbia very seriously when considering how to console them. Serbia is in need of a new myth, a new alternative future. The rest of Yugoslavia found it in the breakup and the promise of EU membership. Kosovo has now has its own myth, the struggle against Serbia all while Serbia is left looking backwards. It’s time to help them turn around.

Similar to Russia, Serbia has little attractive power and although weak, is always able to play the spoiler in the Balkans. Kosovo is an especially thorny issue which threatens to leave relations between Balkan states poor for years to come. However, in a change of course, Serbia, which has refused to cooperate with the Hague by arresting war criminals, seems to have changed its mind.

BELGRADE, Serbia, June 17 (Reuters) — A Serbian police general indicted on charges of crimes against humanity after being accused of ordering the killings of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo in 1998 and 1999, was arrested Sunday and sent to face the charges at the war crimes tribunal in The Hague. The general, Vlastimir Djordjevic, is the second Serbian fugitive to be arrested in three weeks, a change of course by Serbia’s new government after a previous record of inaction and defiance.

The arrest further raises the possibility that the tribunal’s most wanted fugitive, Gen. Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serbs’ wartime military leader, might at some point be taken into custody.

As pressure mounts to recognize Kosovo, whether through the UN or outside of it, Serbia may be looking to score a few last minute points. But, is it too little too late?