Several commentators such as John Robb have noted that the war in Iraq is in many ways similar to the Spanish Civil War, foretelling future developments in warfare. So far, we’ve seen new tactics and strategies there being exported around the world. However, perhaps more interesting than the insurgents is concentrating on the normal residents and how they and the US military are coping with security problems and what types of solutions they are coming up with. Thus it was of great interest for me to read this:

Even as the Iraqis are removing some of the concrete blast walls that divide Baghdad, authorities have quietly installed about 100 metal gates near a major Shiite shrine—a clear sign of ongoing security concerns as bombings continue. Perforated gates have been put up in the past three weeks in the heavily policed Kazimiyah district along streets and alleyways leading to the shrine of Imam Mousa al-Kazim, a much revered eighth-century Shiite saint. Security cameras are also being installed at the gates of the double-domed complex.

While it is easy to dismiss Iraq as an exception, it is important to note that such gates exist in Israel too (as this author has seen and passed through) and when Hurricane Katrina hit, residents of New Orleans quickly erected makeshift ‘gates’ of furniture and trash to protect their blocks. In fact, such gates are nothing new and are simple, basic security measures that have been taken in the past. The question is when they will come to the United States. Walls and gates are nothing new in South Africa. Will cities with bad neighborhoods opt for such measures one day in the near future? Lord knows, the US doesn’t typically deal with the root of such social problems making the use of barriers a far more likely.

As the financial crisis continues and people worry more about crime, unrest and general social order while buying record numbers of guns, we may one day be manning gates outside small towns or within cities.

The WSJ has yet another sign of the dissolution of political units into ever smaller ones. As the economy worsens and states, cities, communities and families move to, or at least explore, becoming more independent, self-sufficient and resilient, we’ll see things like this happening more often.

As the recession batters city budgets around the U.S., some municipalities are considering the once-unthinkable option of dissolving themselves through “disincorporation.”

Benefits of this move vary from state to state. In some cases, dissolution allows residents to escape local taxes. In others, it saves the cost of local salaries and pensions. And residents may get services more cheaply after consolidating with a county.

In Mesa, Wash., a town of 500 residents about 250 miles east of Portland, Ore., city leaders have initiated talks with county officials about the potential regional impact of disincorporating. Mesa has been hit by a combination of the recession and lawsuits that threaten its depleted coffers, leaving few choices other than disincorporation, said Robert Koch, commissioner of Franklin County, where Mesa is located.

With this trend devolving power and responsibility to lower and lower levels, another interesting question to consider in the long term, is whether this will lead to the division of states. Consider northern Virginia (Fairfax County), Texas and California. Perhaps it will eventually lead to statehood in places like Washington, D.C. I discussed this awhile back here. Although the financial crisis may be the primary motivator for decisions at the moment, it seems to be only reinforcing an already growing trend.

Resilient communities, and resilience as key to a new homeland security strategy and independence of foreign sources of energy, materials, and more, has been an interest of mine for some time. I just recently finished a paper for grad school arguing for it. Thus, it is good to see this new development in Germany, which seems to be spearheading a lot of these ideas (such as two-way electricity grids).

Street parking, driveways and home garages are generally forbidden in this experimental new district on the outskirts of Freiburg, near the Swiss border. Vauban’s streets are completely “car-free” — except the main thoroughfare, where the tram to downtown Freiburg runs, and a few streets on one edge of the community. Car ownership is allowed, but there are only two places to park — large garages at the edge of the development, where a car-owner buys a space, for $40,000, along with a home

[...] The stylish row houses that replaced them are buildings of four or five stories, designed to reduce heat loss and maximize energy efficiency, and trimmed with exotic woods and elaborate balconies; free-standing homes are forbidden.

While this idea will of course need to be adapted for American culture and geography (e.g. no free standing homes!?) Ideas like this will help to reduce not only obvious things like energy consumption, carbon emissions and traffic congestion but also psychological and social problems such as stress, unhealthy lifestyles and lack of family time. The next phase should include local food production (something where I can personally attest to Germany being far ahead of the US), local energy production and in places like the United States, more local security.

SIDENOTE: It’s a shame I didn’t hear about this place earlier, I used to live about 2.5 hours from it!

UPDATE: Ideas like this fit into this concept of sustainable suburbs. I love the title “Urban Chicken Movement.” For some Chirol trivia, I miss the 30 chickens I used to have.

While recently doing research on Pakistan (my least favorite country in the world), I’ve developed four short scenarios to help myself and others think about alternative futures for that country and the implications for US policy as well as the region. They are NOT meant as predictions, but rather narratives to help the reader set aside his or her personal bias and assumptions and consider different paths, their implications and to better process current developments in Pakistan to discern the direction it is going.

Your Job: Choose which scenario you find to be the most likely and why. What are the implications for US policy?

1) The Territory Formerly Known as Pakistan
As US and NATO forces increase in Afghanistan, the Taleban insurgency in Pakistan spreads and the central government is unable to resist, ceding more and more control to the Taleban.. Government control extends only to the Punjab. The FATA and NWFP remain lawless and a safe haven for international jihadists as well as Afghan and Pakistani Taleban. The economy continues to decline as FDI all but vanishes and foreign nationals leave. Waves of people try to emigrate.
As the Pakistani government moves from one crisis to the next, US support wanes while Pakistan’s government changes several times a year through shifting coalitions and coups. In addition to secret US bases, NATO establishes a series of permanent and official bases in Pakistan 15 miles across the border from Afghanistan. Serious consideration is given to seizing Pakistan’s nuclear facilities, and several covert joint US-Pakistani operations in ungoverned territories seize and relocate part of their arsenal. Kashmir remains unsolved but Pakistan’s weakness essentially seals Indian dominance and control of the region.

2) Nuclear Nightmare
Taleban insurgents infiltrate further into Pakistan proper and the NWFP and FATA remain sanctuaries for the Taleban and al-Qaeda. Suicide bombings and violence increases as an increasingly impotent civilian government fails to improve the situation. The economy falters with even Chinese FDI dramatically shrinking. As unemployment and unrest grow, the military launches a coup. Although the situation initially stabilized, overly aggressive government action against jihadist groups at the behest of NATO/US lead to an increasing split within the military – the nation’s strongest and only truly functioning institution.
As more NATO/US forces are deployed in Afghanistan, Taleban and al-Qaeda activity within Pakistan grows again pitting secular elements against religious ones. When religious factions of the military, partnered with local militia seize 60% of Pakistan’s nuclear facilities (including its nuclear arsenal), Pakistan stands on the bring of outright civil war while India and the US consider preemptive nuclear strikes against Pakistan’s nuclear facilities.

3) Peace at Home, Peace in the World
Taleban insurgents fight further into Pakistan and the NWFP and FATA remain sanctuaries for the Taleban and al-Qaeda. Violence increases and the civilian government fails stem the tide. The economy falters with even Chinese FDI dramatically shrinking. As unrest grow, the military launches a coup followed by aggressive and large scale military action. Although levels of violence go up, the military successfully defeats extremist elements while making peace with others. It establishes a satisfactory autonomy agreement with the NWFP and FATA which help to expel (but not eliminate) foreign jihadis. The Pakistan/Afghanistan border is formally recognized internationally and violence in Afghanistan is also winding down to manageable levels. The Pakistani military government reaches out to India in a series of confidence building measures and a contact group is setup over Kashmir. Pakistan’s new government makes the strategic decision to treat jihadis/insurgents as its primary national security threat instead of India.

4) Islamic Republic of Pakistan
The creeping Talebanization of Pakistan continues unabated until all but the Punjab is controlled directly or indirectly by Islamic extremists. Nearly powerless the civilian government is forced to form a coalition government with the Pakistani Taleban as the military itself remains divided between secular and religious elements. Over time, Islamists seize control instituting a drastic version of Sharia law, expelling Western diplomats and ending all military agreements and cooperation with the United States. NATO supply routes into Afghanistan are in peril as all of Pakistna becomes a base from which to fight Western troops next door. A nuclear armed Islamic Republic is declared and immediately recognized by Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt.
Although Pakistan now serves as a base for exporting Islamic revolution, it maintains basic relations with its neighbors, including India. Bangladesh eventually succums to an Islamist takeover as well. However, both China and India, wary of Pakistani interference in their own Muslim populations, begin covert action against it while China plans for a potential seizure of Pakistanis nuclear facilities and India for a large scale war. The West struggles on in Afghanistan, as the situation worsens and European allies begin to pull out. Slowly, a China-India-US axis forms against a Pakistani-Bangladeshi-Iranian one.

This is something for John Robb, proof of the ongoing trend of community resilience. Will be interesting to see how/if this pans out.

Nuclear power plants smaller than a garden shed and able to power 20,000 homes will be on sale within five years, say scientists at Los Alamos, the US government laboratory which developed the first atomic bomb. The miniature reactors will be factory-sealed, contain no weapons-grade material, have no moving parts and will be nearly impossible to steal because they will be encased in concrete and buried underground.

The US government has licensed the technology to Hyperion, a New Mexico-based company which said last week that it has taken its first firm orders and plans to start mass production within five years. ‘Our goal is to generate electricity for 10 cents a watt anywhere in the world,’ said John Deal, chief executive of Hyperion. ‘They will cost approximately $25m [£13m] each. For a community with 10,000 households, that is a very affordable $250 per home.’

Deal claims to have more than 100 firm orders, largely from the oil and electricity industries, but says the company is also targeting developing countries and isolated communities. ‘It’s leapfrog technology,’ he said.

Nice.

As readers have noticed, I haven’t been very active blogging the past few months. This is because I’ve been preparing for a major change which has involved a great deal of work, planning and preparation. What is this secret you may ask? Why, it’s a masters degree in Defense and Strategic Studies.

In order to give you some quick background, although I originally intended to attend school here in Germany, the difference between the US and German systems was ultimately too much for me. Whereas in the US a master’s would have taken two years to complete, here in Germany, the system does not allow you to have different undergraduate and graduate majors meaning I wasn’t allowed to change or I had to start from the very beginning as a freshman! Needless to say, I ultimately gave up on that option and decided to work and travel a bit longer before going to back to America with Mrs. Chirol which brings us to now.

After nearly four and a half years in Germany and having visited over a dozen countries in that time, I’ll be moving back to the U.S. tomorrow, specifically to Washington D.C. I’m excited both to live in my home country again and to move forward into a field which will soon provide me with rewarding and endlessly fascinating work. I’ll be busy finding an apartment, getting ready for school and so forth but I invite anyone in the greater D.C. to leave a comment or shoot me an email and we can meet up for a beer and geopolitics.