France, unlike other European countries, seems to be willing to draw clear lines regarding what citizenship and French values mean, and to deny it without concern over leftist or politically correct criticism. A recent case:

The French government has refused to grant citizenship to a foreign national on the grounds that he forced his wife to wear the full Islamic veil. The man, whose current nationality was not given, needed citizenship to settle in the country with his French wife.

But Immigration Minister Eric Besson said this was being refused because he was depriving his wife of the liberty to come and go with her face uncovered. Last week, a parliamentary committee proposed a partial ban on full veils. It also recommended that anyone showing visible signs of “radical religious practice” be refused residence permits and citizenship.

I salute France in standing up for its values. No foreigner has a right to citizenship or even residence and twisted ideas of about fairness, political correctness and tolerance have led countries to act against their own interest by allowing in those who do not share even the most fundamental values of the land. For particularly sick examples see the Netherlands and Great Britain.

As immigration from the developing countries to industrialized countries continues to grow, and communication and transportation technology increases the movement of people across national borders, the question of the value and meaning of citizenship is something that must be raised again. If citizenship boils down to birth location or having the correct paperwork, then it is meaningless. Readers, what does citizenship mean today, particularly in a time of multiple loyalties?

I have long felt that mapping political cultural geography by using election results is a key element of political science that has long been ignored. Academia seems to dismiss it as too simple, and pundits tend to rely on it as the holy grail in explaining everything (remember the nonsense about “Red” states v.s. “Blue” states in the United States over the past decade?) That means that bloggers get to do most of the real analysis, and perhaps the best work on this has been done by Strange Maps—the entire set of their geographic reviews are worth noting once again, what with a recent map showing the regional breakdown of election results in Denmark.

• The 2007 presidential election in France saw votes for the Socialist candidate in the west, particularly the southwest, and it was suggested that this reflected the region’s long tradition of dissent previously seen as the Cathar heresy in the Middle Ages, Huguenot protestantism thereafter, and anticlericalism, antimonarchism and eventually modern socialism.
• The 2004 election in Ukraine saw a very stark divide between the pro-European western half of the country voted for Yushchenko, the pro-Russian eastern half for Yanukovich, along dividing lines that closely reflected the borders of the Kievan Rus, the medieval Slavic ancestors of Russia and Ukraine.
• The 2007 legislative elections in Poland showed that, despite massive displacements of Poles, Germans and others peoples in the 20th century, the electoral results nevertheless eerily correspond with an old imperial border that has been erased from history since 1918.
• Recent local elections in Denmark suggest that, despite the harmonization of historic linguistic divides in Denmark, a cultural divide remains that is reflected in election results.
• In the American South, there remains a strong correlation between areas with high cotton production in the 1860s to the counties that voted for Obama in the 2008 presidential election—or as the author notes, they went from picking cotton to picking presidents!

Kaplan argues that NATO’s 7000 troop contribution to the Afghan surge should not be considered an end, but a beginning:

Consider: China is rising as a great power, particularly in the naval sphere. The U.S. will not fight a war with China, but it will leverage like-minded, democratic others such as India, Indonesia, Australia, South Korea, and Japan to help manage Chinese ascendancy in the maritime rimland of Eurasia. This will take a lot of work, and a lot of ships. And with the U.S. increasingly tied up in the Indian and Pacific oceans as the years and decades march on, it will help to rely increasingly on European forces to cover the the Atlantic and Africa for them.

Although Kaplan continues to be pushing Europe towards a more warlike nature, there seems to be a slight change in tone. Take this quote from the Dispatch:

At home, Europe’s social safety net is estimable. But what will the European Union, now with its own president and foreign minister, work toward abroad?

Now, remember this?

What does the European Union truly stand for besides a cradle-to-grave social welfare system? For without something to struggle for, there can be no civil society—only decadence.

Anyways, read the whole Dispatch at The Atlantic: Let’s Go, Europe.

Despite years abroad and a love and appreciation of Europe, there are some freedoms that are simply broader in the United States, specifically the first and second amendments. It is therefore with no surprise yet considerable disappointment that I read about the latest cartoon controversy in Europe, this time in reverse.

Dutch to prosecute Arabs over Holocaust cartoon

AMSTERDAM – Dutch prosecutors said Wednesday they will charge an Arab cultural group under hate speech laws for publishing a cartoon that suggests the death of 6 million Jews during World War II is a fabrication.The public prosecutor’s office in the city of Utrecht said the cartoon insults Jews as a group and is therefore an illegal form of discrimination. Prosecutors plan to press charges for “insulting a group and distributing an insulting image.” Spokeswoman Mary Hallebeek said the maximum punishment is a year in jail, but a fine of up to euro4,700 ($6,700) is more likely, given that the charges are against the group. The Dutch arm of the Arab European League said it doesn’t deny the reality of the Holocaust, but published the cartoon on its Web site as an “act of civil disobedience” to highlight a double standard.

[...] The cartoon shows two apparently Jewish men standing near a pile of skeletons with a sign that says “Auswitch,” presumably representing the largest Nazi concentration camp, Auschwitz. One pokes a bone with a stick and says “I don’t think they’re Jews” and the other answers, “We have to get to the six million somehow.”

As ignorant and distasteful as such a cartoon is, there’s clearly nothing illegal about it, at least in a country that truly values freedom of speech such as the United States. It will be interesting to see the unfolding public reaction in the Netherlands, the rest of Europe and from Jewish groups. If anything, having this case thrown out would at least set a good example of tolerating the free speech Europeans claim to cherish.

As the economic downturn continues, might we see things like this increasing, and perhaps one day even occurring in the US? We already saw the recent spate of bossnappings.

Workers at a failed French car parts supplier are threatening to blow up their factory unless the company’s two biggest clients – Renault and PSA Peugeot Citroen – stump up extra compensation. Employees of the engine parts maker New Fabris have rigged up a series of gas canisters inside a factory workshop which they say will be detonated on July 31 if the two carmakers fail to pay €30,000 to each of the 366 workers facing unemployment.

Anyone worried about their job should try to find something more locally oriented and not vulnerable to global disruption. Easier said than done of course. Will actions like these further push jobs overseas? If the financial crisis worsens or drags on too long, it makes one wonder what such desperation would lead to in those circumstances.

Building on one of my favorite subjects, devolution, the decline of the state and the proliferation of microstates, I’ve put together a map of the future of Europe in 2020. It is purely speculative and in no way a firm prediction, but rather a sketch of the possibilities and list of the most likely cases. It is by no means exhaustive and you’ll notice seemingly obvious states such as Wales, Sicily, Crete and others are not listed. This is in part because I will argue that two local conditions are necessary for a viable movement and successful independence.

First, the state must be well off economically and able to hold it’s own, i.e. it must have more to gain than lose. Hence, states like Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria are the two richest in Germany, essentially subsidizing the rest would have more motivation than the poor underdeveloped east German states which feed off the rest. The second condition is that the region must have a well developed and unique identity which comes in the form of a strong dialect or different language, history of independence or autonomy and other characteristics that go into defining a culture. Thus, Bavaria (which is actually what most people think about when they think of Germany) is both rich and has a long cultural past and different identity. It has its own dialect, a history of independence and a host of other unique traits including traditional song, dance, clothes etc that other regions lack.

Given that Europe already has a number of microstates – Andorra, Liechtenstein, Malta, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City – and growing list of independence movements (Scotland, Flanders, Catalonia, North Italy, Bavaria), I find the map a reasonably accurate picture of what Europe would look like should this trend continue. Click on the picture below for a full size version of the map.

Effects in Europe

Even if only a few of these microstates were to be born, it could have serious consequences regionally, transatlantically and globally. In Europe, it would suddenly create a host of rich and poor states, which their previous host states balanced out. Northern Germany will get poorer and the two southern states stay very rich for example. Over time, the lack of wealth transfer from southern to northern Germany, or from northern to southern Italy will likely create less developed and poorer states within Europe no longer able to stay afloat. As an Italian friend once joked, without the north, southern Italy would turn into a Catholic Pakistan. As reader DJ noted, now more than ever, regions of today’s states are trying to maximize the economic benefits of globalization while minimizing the social costs, leading to richer regions breaking from poorer ones.

So what will independence look like? It won’t have the same meaning that we think of today. At the local level, these newly minted states will enjoy previously unparalleled independence, flexibility and likely prosperity. However, at the same time, they will be subservient to the European Union on international matters such as defense, some foreign policy, trade agreements, transportation and environmental issues. Also and perhaps most importantly, a credible Europe wide defense would have to exist to make the creation of new states viable.

Conclusion

Naturally, this is an exercise in conjecture and the implications of such events would be far reaching indeed. For example, what would become of US bases in Germany and Italy? And to take the trend even further, could we one day see old school “Greek” leagues of states, perhaps a constellation of conservative states and more liberal ones (or rather rich vs poor), or Germanic vs Romance? Only time will tell.

From tribes to city states to states, humans have always sought security, and used familial ties (constantly redefined) as the links to achieve that. Similarly, humans have an innate need to differentiate themselves whether by family, race, region, culture, religion etc. Globalization is confronting people with more and more differences (other countries, cultures, civilizations, religions and more) at an unparalleled pace. This is leading to individuals worldwide to redefine their identity and their loyalty creating both upward and downward trends. This recent telegraph article on an independence party for Flanders, the Dutch speaking part of Belgium, has a quote by a party spokesman on exactly this trend:

“The EU makes it possible for countries such as this one to split up. We believe we are experiencing both globalisation and localisation. Some problems are global, like defence or the environment, and these need to be dealt with by the EU. But at the same time democracy needs to be closer to the people, and that is why we are a regionalist party. The two trends go hand in hand.”

Couldn’t have said it better myself. More on this topic within the next week or so.

The results are in, and the outcome is clear—Center-Right parties across Europe made solid gains in elections that finished up yesterday. But beyond that, far-right fringe parties in many EU members states came out with sizable margins. Part of this may show the effect that an economic recession can have on the body politic.

Some examples of the far-right gains:

• The anti-Islam campaigner Geert Wilders came in second in the Netherlands with 17% in the Netherlands on Thursday.
• The Hungarian anti-Gypsy extremist party Jobbik took three of the country’s 22 seats.
• In Austria two far-right parties mustered 18%.
• Extreme Slovak nationalists gained their first seat in the European parliament.
• “Eurosceptic” parties won more seats in Denmark, Finland, Austria, and the Czech Republic.

Comments made by observers:

• The leaders in France and Italy benefited from tough anti-immigration and law-and-order stances, despite the tabloid scandals of the private lives of both.
• Turnout was the lowest in 30 years, estimated at around 43%, compared with 45% last time and 62% in Europe’s first election in 1979.
• Despite jobless numbers soaring amid the worst economic crisis, center-leftist and socialist parties are not benefiting from the political fallout.

As awful as this current recession is for many, consider how good life is compared to how bad it could be. Food prices could be crippilingly high; inflation could be dehabilitating; unemployment figures could be double what they are now. Suddenly, the context in which Hitler won election, and in which America almost elected William Jennings Bryan, doesn’t seem so far-fetched, or so much like outdated history.

Shrinking glaciers are not only heating up relations in the Arctic, with countries competing for control over maritime passageways or undersea natural resources, these victims of global warming are also kindling tension on land by forcing Europe to redraw its borders. The line of demarcation between Italy and Switzerland has been defined by the ridge crest of glaciers in the Alps by convention since 1941. This crest is changing, requiring a new criterion for demarcation.

Luckily this is not likely to cause conflict — diplomatic or otherwise — between these two European countries. However, one might not be so confidant that a peaceful resolution lies under the ice for less friendly nations. The border between Pakistan and China is already a vague, frozen zone. What about the snowy boundaries of Kashmir or Nepal? Fortunately we have GPS technology which can solidify border agreements between nations without relying on “patriotic rocks”. Countries whose borders may be afflicted by the effects of climate change should deploy these solutions soon in joint operations with their neighbours. There is likely to be a bit of cheating if any new resources are found under the ice. Thus, for the sake of peaceful co-existence, GPS demarcation should be established where current borders lie.

[Diagram from Wikipedia]

Lately, Kaplan must be in his bunker writing furiously. Here’s another dispatch, this time on Those Greek Riots. The thesis is:

It’s tempting to dismiss this as a purely Greek affair that carries little significance to the outside world. But the global economic crisis will take different forms in different places in the way that it ignites political unrest. … Pay close attention to Greece; at a time of world-wide economic upheaval, it might eerily presage disturbances elsewhere in 2009.

Kaplan looks to be contributing lots to The Atlantic Dispatches. He should write a blog. He should join us.