This weekend’s elections in Serbia brought a sigh of relief to those all over the EU. Boris Tadic was victorious over nationalist Tomislav Nikolic. While most news outlets are emphasizing Serbia choosing Europe and pro-Western, it would behoove them to remember that with regard to Kosovo, the entire country is of one mind. Tadic, who supports Serbia’s joining the EU is just as anti-Kosovar independence as his challenger. His victory means only that Europe and America can likely expect someone a bit more levelheaded and less likely to make any sudden and dangerous moves.

Yet, Kosovo’s breaking away will present an enormous challenge for both Tadic and his party. Should they not deal with the move in a way that satisfies the general public, or rather should Serbs not be pleased with how they think the government handled it, Tadic could be out not and another dangerous “stabbed in the back” myth could be created by Serbian nationalists as happened in post WWI Germany.

Serbia remains the key to stability in the Balkans precisely because it is torn between integration and revenge. While the rest of the former Yugoslavia has come to terms with its past and is confidently moving forward, Serbia has not. Indeed, another real danger largely disregarded in the media is not only the chance for violence after Kosovar independence but the chance for civil unrest and violence within Serbia. Only time will tell. Kosovo claims to be ready to declare independence in the next few days.

While Americans ponder Pearl Harbor Day, December 7th, Europe is pondering December 10th, the day that will finally end negotiations over Kosovo and either on which, or shortly after which, Kosovo is expected to unilaterally declare independence. While around 15,000 NATO troops will remain in Kosovo to maintain peace regardless of what happens, a great deal of speculation exists as to what will happen. Large scale war has been ruled out by Serbia itself although other routes such as boycotts of countries recognizing Kosovo, shutting off services such as water and electricity and low level guerrilla fighting between Serbs and Albanians in northern Kosovo are all possibilities.

As things stand at the moment, the Contact Group has officially turned in their report stating that no compromise could be reached between the two sides. The report will be forwarded to the Security Council tomorrow and will be officially discussed on the 19th. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

In the mean time, I invite you to browse the archives on past articles related to Kosovo such as “Could Kosovo Make or Break Europe” and “But What Kind of Multilateralism.”

Almost two decades after the Cold War and with some looking to Europe to play a larger role in world affairs, a pesky little province of two million just refuses to go away. Eight years after the Kosovo War in which NATO troops largely consisting of the US and Germany intervened to protect Kosovar Albanians from genocide at the hands of the Serbs, progress on the ground moves constantly forward while political progress remains stalled.

As negotiations, if they can be called such, remain stalled on the final status of Kosovo, the December 10th deadline looms. As previously reported, talks have been moved outside of the United Nations and are currently underway in the Contact Group. The deadline for resolving Kosovo’s final status has been set for December 10th, 2007, barely a month away. While some reports in the German news claim more progress is being made than most expect, the world continues to expect independence. The little experiment called Yugoslavia will finally, finally be laid to rest.

Slovenia is gone. Croatia is gone. Bosnia is gone. Macedonia is gone. Montenegro is now gone. Only Kosovo remains and historical arguments aside, if Balkan borders were politicians, they’d be the worst flip-floppers of all time. The time of large scale violence is over. There will be no war. Serbia will be angry. There will be a nationalist backlash. Yet, the price of isolation will ultimately be too high as regional integration and development accelerates.

As the deadline looms and Prishtina has made clear it plans to declare independence with or without the world’s blessing, a more interesting and indeed more important question arises: Will Europe start deciding its own future? Or will one of the most important decisions of recent years be made by the United States?

If talk is cheap, then Europe is a low-cost-country for political idealism and empty rhetoric. Kosovo will be a test not of the UN, international law or even of one wills, one that demands action and the greater and long term assuming of responsibility. It is a line in the sand. Is Europe ready to cross it?

Reading the news daily can often be as funny as the comics section. Today was no exception when I came across the following article in Der Speigel’s English edition:

Serbia Says Use of Force Is an Option in Kosovo

Kosovo’s Albanian-dominated government seems set to declare its independence from Serbia. Some Western governments appear to back this move, but now Serbia is weighing its options—and military options—in such an event. Serbia is prepared to use force to prevent Kosovo gaining independence. Serbia is ready to use force to prevent Western states from recognizing Kosovo as an independent state, a senior Serbian official warned on Wednesday.

Dusan Prorokovic, Serbia’s state secretary for Kosovo, outlined an array of tough measures to squeeze Kosovo that he said Serbia was ready to take in the event that Kosovo’s Albanian-dominated government declared independence and was recognized by Western governments. These included the possible deployment of Serbian forces to the province, the sealing of its borders, and a trade embargo.

Any military action against Kosovo would naturally involve both Kosovar and foreign forces there including the French, Germans, Italians and Americans. So setting aside the absurdity of a poor and already badly beaten Serbia starting a war it has no chance of winning, what in the world are politicians thinking?

Serbia must on one hand, continue to act tough not only to save face but to appease its population and maintain support for the government. On the other hand, although Serbia has a less than 0% chance of winning, the threat of force may be enough to make some European states back down or rethink their options. The last thing most EU states want is another mess in Balkans and a violent one at that and could be willing to compromise as both governments and their citizens have little stomach for foreign deployments and war given the ongoing hostilities in Iraq.

As absurd and hollow as the threat seems, counting on European cowardice isn’t necessarily a bad bet.

An interesting development in the forever-stalled final status of Kosovo. Back in July, RFERL reported that the issue may be moved from the UN to the Contact Group for the Balkans, formed back during the war in Bosnia.

However, the move to turn to the Contact Group may be inspired less by the hope of reviving talks between Serbia and Kosovo, than an attempt to outmaneuver Russia. Unlike in the UN Security Council, Russia has no veto power in the Contact Group.

Alain Deletroz, a vice president of the International Crisis Group, an influential think tank, says that resorting to the Contact Group may also help the EU to circumvent its own internal divisions on Kosovo. Several EU member states are thought to harbor doubts on Kosovo’s independence, although a tenuous consensus exists at the EU level to support it.

Deletroz said in a briefing in Brussels on July 17 that the “key EU member states” in the group—Britain, Germany, France, and Italy—could assume the responsibility for an EU decision, allowing skeptics to lie low.

A few days ago, RFERL sat down with the US envoy to the Contact Group who made it clear that this is the final step as far as the United States is concerned.

US and EU recognition of an independent Kosovo is essentially all that UN approval is, minus Russia. The UN will continue to be the primary forum of debate and discussion, however ad hoc groups of like minded (i.e. Western) powers will continue to be the real engine of decision making (NATO, EU, G8). Evoking TS Eliot, this is the way the UN ends, not with a bang but a whimper.

1389 still casts a long shadow over the Balkans from Belgrade to Prishtina. Today, The Battle of Kosovo is commemorated in Serbia and to give away the ending, the Serbs lose. Yet, what is the importance of a major loss in a seemingly obscure place and time? After all, Americans celebrate July 4th and not losing Vietnam. Germans celebrate reunification and not their defeat in WWII. Similarly though, the Serb loss in 1389 has left a long lasting imprint on Serbian culture, history and their perspective. This still shapes the way Serbs view Kosovo, which is radically different from the seemingly “logical” way in which the West tends to see it.

By 1389, the Ottoman Turks had become a formidable power and were continuing their expanasion into the Balkans. Frequent raids and skirmishes came ever closer to the then Kingdom of Serbia. Although previously, the Serbs has tried to push the Turks out of the Balkans, by now they were on the offensive. Prince Lazar of Serbia took on Ottoman Sultan Murad I and although both rulers didn’t live through the battle, Ottoman forces defeated the Serbs. Despite being subjugated and made part of the Ottoman Empire for five centuries, the battle of Kosovo slowly took on mythical proportions becoming a central theme in Serbian culture and history. But why? As Mark Gottfried wrote,

What then is the importance of the Battle of Kosovo? It was a cultural defeat, a religious defeat. It became the symbol of Turkish power and Serbian defeat, not to be forgotten . . . revenge was always over the horizon. The grand Serbian culture, which flourished under Tzar’s Dushan and Milutin, was only a memory, after Serbia’s knights, armies and hopes died at the field of Kosovo.

Indeed, it seems a strange event to celebrate or even reenact as is done every year. But, it provided and still provides the basic foundations of nationalism. Nationalism at its core, like religion, needs a myth of better times, whether it be a lost golden age or a bright future, it provides those in need with identity and purpose. The Battle of Kosovo in the Serbian mind, represents

the glory of pre-Kosovo Serbia; the necessity of struggle against tyranny; and the essential link between the Kosovo ethic and Christianity, which was expressed most clearly in the heroic ideal of self-sacrifice for the faith and for Serbia, the futility of betrayal, and the assuredness of resurrection.

Robert Kaplan, in Balkan Ghosts, notes that the Balkan peoples tend to see history as circular, always expecting their time to come again (i.e. Greater Serbia, Greater Croatia, Greater Albania etc.) whereas we in the West see it as more linear. The Battle of Kosovo is one symptom of that phenomenon and regardless of how much Americans or Europeans can sympathize with the Serbs or understand the significance of this cultural myth, it is very much a factor in today’s ongoing conflict over Kosovo.

For the United States and Europe, Kosovo is fairly straightforward. The Serbs, in the culmination of ongoing crackdowns and oppression of the Albanian Kosovars, initiated a deliberate campaign of ethnic cleansing in the region to demographically retake the province. Today everyone (minus the Serb minority) wants independence. Conclusion: You don’t get to commit mass murder and ethnic cleansing and then lay claim to an area. Serbia loses.

Yet, from Serbia’s perspective, no matter how heinous their crimes (which many do not admit or see as such), the war in Kosovo was very much the same as their famous battle in 1389 which pitted the brave Serbs against the Muslim hordes. As it is human nature to fall prey to the confirmation bias, i.e. seeking out information that confirms the conclusion you want to find, the Serbs see NATO and the West as colluding with Muslims to steal Serbian land. No matter that Serbia’s actions were condemned by Christans and Muslims alike, and that the West has no interest in Kosovo, Serbs see their worst historical fears as being confirmed.

An independent Kosovo is far more than a territorial loss, but a cultural and historical attack. Although there will probably never be any meeting of the minds regarding the future status of Kosovo, it would behoove the West to take the underlying concerns, fears and emotions of Serbia very seriously when considering how to console them. Serbia is in need of a new myth, a new alternative future. The rest of Yugoslavia found it in the breakup and the promise of EU membership. Kosovo has now has its own myth, the struggle against Serbia all while Serbia is left looking backwards. It’s time to help them turn around.

Similar to Russia, Serbia has little attractive power and although weak, is always able to play the spoiler in the Balkans. Kosovo is an especially thorny issue which threatens to leave relations between Balkan states poor for years to come. However, in a change of course, Serbia, which has refused to cooperate with the Hague by arresting war criminals, seems to have changed its mind.

BELGRADE, Serbia, June 17 (Reuters) — A Serbian police general indicted on charges of crimes against humanity after being accused of ordering the killings of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo in 1998 and 1999, was arrested Sunday and sent to face the charges at the war crimes tribunal in The Hague. The general, Vlastimir Djordjevic, is the second Serbian fugitive to be arrested in three weeks, a change of course by Serbia’s new government after a previous record of inaction and defiance.

The arrest further raises the possibility that the tribunal’s most wanted fugitive, Gen. Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serbs’ wartime military leader, might at some point be taken into custody.

As pressure mounts to recognize Kosovo, whether through the UN or outside of it, Serbia may be looking to score a few last minute points. But, is it too little too late?

To the casual visitor in Kosovo, independence is everywhere. Shop owners and taxi drivers wax on about freedom and independence. Every third building is spray painted with Kosovo’s semi-official graffiti saying “Jo Negociata! Vetëvendosje!” meaning “No negotiations! Independence!” On the ground, the province has been operating as a de facto independent state since NATO’s intervention in 1999, yet politically the further Kosovo comes, the further off independence seems. Why is this?

Although technically an internationally recognized part of Serbia, only Serbia and its Russian ally believe this. Since being unofficially separated from Serbia, the United Nations has taken over the governing. KFOR soldiers patrol the streets in areas prone to ethnic strife and western trained Kosovar police walk the streets with new uniforms and weapons. But despite Kosovo’s the remote and war-torn impression many have from the media, a stroll through Prishtina, Peja or Prizren could almost be mistaken for one in the European Union. With fashionably dressed youth, more and more Western chains and a multilingual population, Kosovo looks closer to Europe than it sounds.

While in Kosovo last month, independence seemed not only like a foregone conclusion, but one soon in coming. Word was that a final decision would be reached by the UN Security Council, soon to meet, and that the issue would be settled once and for all. Yet, over a month later, nothing has changed. Russia continues to threaten to veto such a measure and Serbia remains intransigent while the West continues to push forward. The G8’s recent meeting yielded similar results. Yes, nothing has changed.

Many observers have noted that the current political constellation in Europe, now aligned more with the United States, has given rise to many opportunities. One of those, not often noted is that of Kosovar independence. On President Bush’s recent visit to Albania, he remarked that “Enough is enough, Kosovo is independent.” However, although it at times seemed Russia was bluffing with regard to Kosovo, it’s continued hardline stance leaves little room to doubt. With a UN resolution unlikely and any agreement between Serbia and Kosovo quite impossible, unilateral recognition will likely be the only way.

Yet, there will be significant political costs for both the United States and Europe. Russia continues to use it as a bargaining chip. Since Kosovar independence is already a given for the West, this gives Moscow a significant advantage. Already being squeezed out of Eastern Europe, Russia’s last bastions of influence are Belarus, eastern Ukraine, Transdniester and Serbia. Is Russia pursuing a kind of scorched earth policy, creating failed states in Eastern Europe or does it have some constructive interest there?

The most cited significance of Kosovar independence is its effect on the so-called frozen conflicts in the Caucasus as well as Moldova. Yet, although the conflicts in Kosovo, Trandniester, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabagh are vastly different, the precedent that could be set is relevant, namely, that it would be the first time a country is broken up by the UN, or at least NATO against that country’s will. Indeed a dangerous precedent. But how much so?

As American and European support for an independent Kosovo is a given, a Russian refusual to recognize an independent Kosovo, even if declared so outside the UN, would amount to little. Yet, Russian recognition of breakaway territories like Abkhazia and South Ossetia would change little since they already do so in practice. Even Nagorno-Karabakh couldn’t gain much from pushing for recognition as it has no real political support outside Armenia. At best Russia may recognize it though American aid money to Armenia could be a good card to play in such a situation.

While it seems Washington is pushing hard to get the Kosovo question settled this year, Russia is intent on holding out for the highest price it can exact. Russia still has adequate pull in Eastern Europe making Serbia far from a vital interest. Indeed, Serbia is rather a convenient bargaining tool on other fronts and should be seen as such. As Europe and the US grow impatient with the needlessly drawn out issue, it is time to find Russia’s real price and decide. With Moscow’s continued blackmail of the West over Kosovo, it’s time to ask ourselves whether inaction costs more than action..

Peja, Kosovo

I decided to stay in Peja overnight and take a morning bus to Podgorica, Montenegro where I’ll connect going on to Kotor. Here are a few pics from Kosovo:

Day 73 in Pristina, Kosovo

Yesterday I woke up early and headed out to the bus station to catch one of the many buses going southwest towards Prizren. It lies in the German KFOR zone which becomes rather obvious by the many German armored vehicles along the roads, German flags and the big KFOR base outside of the city.

Prizren immediately jumps out at you being far far more pretty than Pristina which is maybe worth a day’s time traveling. It holds the most Ottoman-era architecture of any city in Kosovo and is pleasantly situated on a small river surrounded by green hills. It’s a city of just over 100,000 and thus easy to manage and a relaxing place to visit. On arrival, with no map, I asked at a local kiosk how to get to the center. As is usually the case when the person asked doesn’t speak English, I was taken by the arm to nearby cab drivers who sputtered out a few phrases.

“This street, you go gerade, then left”Â?

Spotting the German word for straight, I switched into German which immediately got the entire group talking in decent enough Deutsch. Turns out many had lived in Germany at some point and we exchanged the usual info about who lived where and why and I listened to a chorus of praise for America. They added they liked Germany and the UK too but the rest of Europe was unreliable. After about ten minutes of friendly chatting, they told me how to get there and I set off. German has been very very handy in Kosovo and after English is by far the most useful.

I found my way to the river and followed it up to the main square which was filled with throngs of young people. School must have just gotten out I thought. The day before in a cafe, a 15 year old had told me school only goes until noon when I asked him why he wasn’t in school at this time.

I sat down for lunch at a small cafe on the corner and had a 2 Euro meal of meatballs and salad. From there I headed towards the nearest hill which the remnants of an old castle sat atop. Leading up was a slew of burned out houses and a few burned out Orthodox churches. In both 1999 and 2004, Albanians took revenge on the Serbian minority there killing some and burning their houses and churches. The 2004 incident was set off by the alleged drowning of 2 Albanian children who were being chased by Serbs, though what actually happened remains unclear. The Germans could have prevented much of the violence but failed to do so which caused controversy both in Germany and abroad as the reliability of the foreign troops was called into question.

People came and went, some stopping to drink from a fountain in the center of the square. A dirty middle aged man stopped and began taking colored plastic squirt guns out of a plastic bag and laying them on top of a cardboard box he’d brought. It was hot out and the sun unforgiving. His entrepreneurial instinct was good and dozens and dozens were sold immediately as teenagers began chasing each other around with them.

I hopped up and went up the hill watching normal brick houses turning into shells, some fenced off by barbed wire. I passed what had seemed to be a pretty orthodox church perched among wonderful green trees up on the hill. As I came up to it, it too was fenced off with razor wire and I noticed two German KFOR soldiers inside guarding it. As I found out, most Serbian churches were being guarded these days. The Albanians revenge could be as vicious as what Serbs had done to them.

I reached the castle and found a Kosovar family heading up too. Their two young children ran around playing on the road up and immediately took an interest in the foreigner who greeted them in an unfamiliar language. We walked up and I inspected what was left of hte castle walls though there was little to see overall. The views were incredible. Unlike Macedonia where the Orthodox domes and minarets signaled peaceful coexistence, here it had meant only violence.

Later after resting from the heat in a neaby cafe, I paid and walked up to three German soldiers on patrol. They were all armed and I was curious whether they were really on patrol or just heading somewhere.

I walked up and introduced myself in German and explained I was a tourist interested in the developments in Kosovo and the security stiuation. Were they on patrol? Yes. I asked whether it was necessary to be armed and they said only because they were working. Day to day things were fine. In fact, standing there watching people go by, the busy cafes, the designer shops and pop music, we could have almost been in Western Europe. There were no law and order problems and not much crime to speak of. However, they explained, as 2004 showed, ethnic violence could break out very suddenly and unexpected. It was that they wanted to prevent.
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