Yet another post by occasional guest contributor on topics of theology and history, Alfred Russel Wallace.

The western world played a central role in developing today’s modern political and philosophical scholarship from the 17th through 19th centuries. Many of these influential thinkers were ordained as priests. One of them was the Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834).

The youngest son of eight children, Malthus grew up in comfortable circumstances, and was educated at the Presbyterian Warrington Academy before attending Jesus College, Cambridge. He received his MA in 1791, and became an Anglican country curate near Guilford in Surrey in 1797. He married his cousin Harriet in 1804, and in 1805 became Professor of History and Political Economy at the East India Company College. He had three children.

Malthus was an early advocate of assessing the value of labor, and took issue with other economists such as Adam Smith (1723-1790) and David Hume (1711-1776) in viewing the true and only generation of wealth as the production of food. He believed that a country’s population was limited by the amount of food available, especially for the poor.

Malthus also theorized that food production could at best increase only linearly, while populations could increase exponentially without constraint. His book published on this topic was initially anonymous, but he was acknowledged in a major revision and four subsequent editions. The last edition, in 1828, bore title that was typically, like many written its time, exhaustively descriptive: “An Essay on the Principle of Population; or a view of its past and present effects on human happiness; with an inquiry into our prospects respecting the future removal or mitigation of the evils which it occasions.”

Many at the time, including Karl Marx, disagreed and expected technology to come to the rescue. Today, the success of Norman Borlaug’s (1914-2009) wonderful wheat and the ‘Green Revolution’ has temporarily blunted Malthus’ arguments. The critics have been correct. So far.

But as Malthus predicted, populations in many countries have increased to match the food supply, and the specter of perennial starvation and other Malthusian consequences is always near at hand.

Some see Malthus’ views as heartless, but he believed that “Evil exists in the world not to create despair, but activity” and spent much time and effort in proposing ways to mitigate the potentially appalling consequences of the truth of his observations. He believed that delaying marriage would keep populations in check, and felt strongly that education was a far better investment for society than charity, saying, “It is surely a great national disgrace that the education of the lower classes of people… should be left merely to a few Sunday schools…”

Both Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace were strongly influenced by Malthus’ recognition of the “constant struggle for existence” caused by a shortage of food supplies. They independently generalized it to all living things, and came to recognize that subtle random differences in individuals could lead to their improved survival, and thus eventually to new species. So in a very real sense the Church, in the form of the Rev. Malthus, helped lay the foundation for the discovery of the principle of Natural Selection that underlies all biology.

[A Ferghana Valley dispatch from serial guest-blogger Dorzhiev. — YH]

Driving through the Tajik portion of the Ferghana Valley at dusk our taxi comes to halt. The man riding shotgun hops out to orient himself towards Mecca and perform his Namuz. While we wait a newly wedded man holding a bouquet of flowers for his wife asks the driver to take a detour to his village.

“How many kilometers is it?”
“Only twelve. I live at the border.”

After some grumbling our driver agrees and we turn down a side road. Ten minutes later we arrive in a small village.

“This is it,” the passenger indicates.
“Which side of the border do you live on. Tajik or Uzbek?” the driver asks.
“This is the Kyrgyz border, and I live on the Tajik side.”

To my foreign ears this conversation sounds the sort of Vaudevillian act that leaves you asking “Who’s on first.”

The confusion, however, is understandable in a region famous for it’s bizarre borders. From our point on the highway roughly 20 kilometers in either direction would put you in a different country. A holdover from Soviet times, today the borders of the Ferghana Valley resemble a jigsaw puzzle that has been cut out without consideration to geographic or ethnic realities. The post-Soviet division of the valley has been a bone of contention between the three states that share it. Arguments over water rights, resources, and enclaves continue to stir the ire of the governments of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The borders also present a challenge to security forces hunting insurgents.

On October 14th a group of armed men reportedly forced their way across the Tajik-Kyrgyz border. The group of roughly a dozen crossed from the Isfara district of Tajikistan to Batken province in Kyrgyzstan. It is currently believed that they are held up in the area around the Tajik enclave of Vorukh surrounded by Kyrgyzstan’s Batken Province. Batken consists of the southern most portion of Kyrgyzstan’s slice of the Ferghana Valley and has a history of unrest. Most notably in 1999 when a large contingent of insurgents linked to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan were responsible for shootings and a spate of kidnappings including the abduction of three American mountain climbers.

Last month another border crossing in the Batken region was the scene of another shootout prompting the Kyrgyz to tighten their borders. Additionally last month Saidumar Saidov, chief of police of Isfara district in Tajikistan was assassinated, however no one has yet been implicated in the killing. As of yet there is no evidence to suggest that these incidents are related, but their proximity and timing fuel the fears relating to the repatriation of insurgents feeling the heat in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In August Tahir Yuldashev the leader of IMU was killed in Waziristan by a US drone although the implications of his death for his followers is not yet clear.

The governments of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are understandably concerned about the flow of militants across their porous borders. The governments of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan especially lack the resources to adequately patrol them. This summer at a Tajik-Kyrgyz check point consisting only of a card table I watched as a lone soldier waived bus after bus through without bothering to stop them. Tonight as we return to the main road I take a glance down the dusty track that continues into Kyrgyzstan. There are no card tables and no soldiers. Only a herd of goats.

[Serial guest-blogger Dorzhiev tries his hand at satire. — YH]

The year is 2012. Against all odds a Pat Buchanan/Ron Paul administration has taken control of the White House. Unhappy with the adventurism of past administrations President Buchanan drafts an isolationist foreign policy that is closer in line with his nuanced understanding of global politics. Here is a copy of his first daily security briefing.

National Security Briefing: Top Secret

Terrorism: We have reliable reports that a trireme full of fundamentalist Mohammedans have disembarked from Mesopotamia and are heading to the New World with the intention of fomenting religious fervour. While it is clear that their intentions are insidious there is little cause for alarm. To reach our shores they would first have to negotiate a gauntlet of obstacles including the Cyclopes of Polyphemus, the piratical waters of Tripoli, and the dragon infested doldrums of the mid-Atlantic. Threat level: one lantern. (For more information please read attached report on Homer’s Odyssey.)

Policy Planning: A forward policy of containment has been drafted regarding the Middle Kingdom’s recent economic advancement. So as not to awaken the slumbering giant we currently recommend a rethinking of our military alliance with the prince of Siam. We also recommend protecting our domestic interest by a) implementing tariffs on imported opium, spices, and jade and b) immediately deporting all Chinamen currently working on the transcontinental railway so as to provide more jobs for God-fearing Americans.

Counterintelligence: After a harrowing counterintelligence operation it has been discovered that previous reports relating to Persia were merely the fabrications of a shadowy cabal of Hebrews who were engaged in a plan for world domination. Upon further review we find no evidence of a threat from Persia and recommend sending emissaries to the Proconsul of Persepolis to express our sincerest apologies for our errant sabre-rattling. Appropriate gifts should also be sent including: assorted hunting fowl, a nickelodeon, wildlife etchings, and a jewel encrusted ear horn for his majesty’s hard of hearing mother. We also recommend a purge of all Benjamites from government office so they cannot continue with their campaign of subterfuge. For more information please consult the attached report on The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

Weapons Proliferation: Our surveillance telescope Monocle 2 has picked up images of the Tsar’s latest long-range catapults stationed in the Crimea. While more sophisticated than previous designs it is our finding that these war machines do not yet have intercontinental capability and as such do not threaten our national security. They are more likely to be used as a deterrent against Prussian rearmament or for suppressing local uprisings of scheming Jews.

Homeland Security: The FBI should be applauded for its recent infiltration of a Masonic order, a coven of witches, and a dangerous network of intelligentsia who propagate the heretical belief that the world is round.

[Another letter from Central Asia from serial guest-blogger Dorzhiev. — YH]

Russia — Uzbekistan continues to snub Russia in a bid to strengthen its regional dominance (see below). After Kyrgyzstan decided to extend the U.S. lease in Manas airbase, Russia responded by pushing for the opening of a second military complex in the Fergana Valley; ostensibly for terrorism related contingencies. Uzbekistan is not buying the pretense and is purportedly building their own base in Khanabad. A military buildup around the Fergana appears to be underway.

On a more symbolic note Tajikistan is toying with the idea of a banning the use of Russian in government affairs in an attempt to both ‘’strengthen its sovereignty” and destroy its fledgling economy.

U.S. — After Uzbek/U.S. relations chilled in 2005 over human rights issues, the two counties are once again getting cozy.This month General David Petraus paid a visit to Tashkent to discuss strengthening mutual ties. Concerns over Afghanistan, increasing radicalization in Central Asia, and the creeping influence of Moscow have pushed Karimov to once again look West. To the south the U.S. faces an uphill battle in Afghanistan as domestic support for the war continues to erode.

China — China continues its large scale investment in the Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. From construction of roads in Tajikistan to the energy acquisitions in Kazakhstan Chinese plans for its western frontier proceed apace. For background see here.

Turkmenistan — An interesting overview in Foreign Policy about the courtship of strategically located and energy rich Turkmenistan. The establishment of the Nabucco pipeline threatens to free Europe the from the stranglehold of Russian supply. Gazprom is not too happy about the prospect.

Global Jihad — In Afghanistan the Taliban has made inroads into the traditionally stable (ish) northern provinces of Baghlan and Kunduz. With U.S. and British forces stretched in the south and east, it is up to the European lead NATO contingent to stymie them. It will be interesting to see the effect on local Tajik and Uzbek sympathies.

The Beleaguered Masses — The prospects don’t look good.

[Fabled to be founded by Alexander the Great, the Tajik city of Khojand is a mishmash of Soviet and Islamic ideas. Dorzhiev reports from the front. (See his earlier post here) – YH]

Could the clash of civilizations be resolved by a beard growing contest?

Khujand is the capital of Tajikistan’s northern Sogd province that presides over the country’s share of the Fergana Valley. The Fergana has a reputation as a Central Asian flashpoint owing to the convergence of multiple countries, ethnicities, and ideologies that cohabitate within its gerrymandered borders. In the past months it has grabbed headlines for skirmishes between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan that escalated into violence. Additionally there have been several IMU related incidents in the nearby Uzbek cities of Khanabad and Andijan fueling speculation of the repatriation of insurgents feeling the squeeze in the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan. Elsewhere in Tajikistan the apparent return of warlord Mullo Abdullo in the Rasht Valley has sparked fears that civil war era malcontents are regrouping in the Gharm region. Fueling the trend, officials announced June 24th the arrest of 40 alleged extremists in Dushanbe. Given these recent developments one might be tempted to think of Khujand as a potential Kandahar or Peshawar. Such fears are stoked when we read that in recent months police in Khujand have rounded up at least two dozen members of Hizb Ut-Tahrir — an outlawed political party who encourages the re-establishment of the Caliphate. Read the rest of this entry »

[And now a travel dispatch from the front lines of the Fergana Valley from guest blogger code-name: Dorzhiev (seems suspicious) – YH]

Chugging up the Syr Daryo at night we look ahead to see swirls of smoke dancing amidst beams of neon light. The scene reminds me of the one in Apocalypse Now where captain Willard and his men encounter a surreal encampment on the Mekong river; an ephemeral outpost that marks the last stop before they reach Kurtz. Having read an account of Curzon and Younghusband’s forays into Central Asia just hours before the association came naturally enough. The melodrama of the scene, however, was somewhat diluted by the fact that our vehicle was not a PT gun boat or imperial caravan, but an oversized paddle duck my guide and I had rented for the half hour. We had wanted to hire the blue water bicycle, but some punk had nicked it from us by jumping in line.

The neon lights reflecting off the water emanated from a forest of technicolor palm trees, and the mingling smoke wafted from nearby barbeques on the bank. Apparently eating grilled meat under gaudy lawn furniture is somewhat of an institution in Tajikistan. At least it’s a popular activity at the fair grounds in Khujand, the capital of Tajikistan’s share of the Fergana Valley. For those whose impression of Tajikistan is either of Soviet styled bureaucracy or rural, subsistent peasantry the sights and smells of the Saturday night carnival might seem out of place. Gaggles of unattended children run between students and young families strolling along the riverside laughing, snacking, or waiting to ride the “mystery machine”.

Surveying the crowed from atop my perch on a rickety Ferris wheel I could be looking down at Perry, Georgia or Des Moines, Iowa. The only giveaway that I am in a precinct of a one time Persian province is that the ride attendant is well groomed and competent. No Carnie hailing from Dothan, Alabama could approach this level of professionalism or number of solid teeth. Granted this attendant is probably a high level bureaucrat employed by the “Ministry of Rotating Attractions” whose wages are paid from an ever shrinking public coffer instead of Barnum & Bailey’s.

If there is one bummer to this surprisingly happy scene it is the knowledge of Tajikistan’s current economic woes seen in the light of the countries young demographic. Like many struggling countries, Tajikistan’s population is growing faster than its economy. What effect will this downturn have on a restless generation who in the past few years have seen their hopes of upward mobility diminish? Will the effects of inflation, failure of the cotton crop (a chief export), and the drying up of foreign remittance push them over the brink? On the whole Tajiks live subsistent enough to be fairly shock resistance. This is, however, not as true for the minority of urbanized Tajiks living in cities like Khujand and Dushanbe whose economies are more tertiary. In times of trouble these people are, paradoxically, less able to cope.

A pithy example of this phenomenon could be seen in the winter of 2007. For Tajikistan it was the coldest in 40 years, and made worse by further rationing of energy from neighboring Uzbekistan. Ironically, this had the worst effect on those living in cities who had become reliant on infrastructure for their heat. In contrast, the villagers who are accustomed to going without electricity proved more resilient. On the whole 85 years of communist rule, civil war, and poverty have toughened the Tajik people. How exactly they will weather this particular storm remains to be seen. Tonight, however, they seem more interested in cotton candy and popcorn. Like the T-shirt of the guy in front of me reads, “No money, no crisis”.

Guest post by regular commenter and reader Aceface, who has extensive professional and personal experience in Mongolia.

Georgia and Mongolia have many similarities, especially in the context of US foreign relations. Both are former communist states. Both were dominated by Russia through the 20th century even before the Communist revolution. This influence waned when the Soviet Union collapsed, but Russia remains a powerful neighbor, part of the reason that both now enjoy close ties with the United States, which led to troops being sent to Iraq. (They are both also homes of tyrants—Georgia gave the world Stalin, Mongolia brought us Genghis Khan.)

But the differences are greater than the similarities. Georgia is a mountaineous country which is geographically small yet home to a basket of ethnicities that complicate its political existence. By contrast, Mongolia is a country of steppes and deserts and has simple borders with only small and quiet Kazakh minority. The archenemy of Georgian nationalism is Russia, which it sees as its primary, and indeed only, hostile power. Mongolia is more wary of China, but has a more balanced approach and is keenly aware that it is stuck between two enormous and powerful states.

A “third neighbor” has played an important role for Mongolia since its independence in 1911. Japan briefly served in this capacity in the early 20th century, when Mongolian nationalists in inner Mongolia collaborated with the Japanese. Inner Mongolia received autonomy when the Japanese ruled Manchukuo. But of course, this collaboration disappeared once Japan faced a challenge at home and pulled out, leaving Mongolians to deal with the fall-out: with the first signs of cross-border pan-Mongolian nationalism, Stalin ordered the liquidation of thousands of Mongolian intellectuals for the fear of solidarity with Mongols in China.

Today, the third neighbor is, in some ways, America. But the experience with Japan may have made Mongolians more realistic as to what a so-called “third neighbor” can do, and it maintains strong relations with Japan, both North and South Korea, and unlike Georgia, does not antagonize its neighbors. By contrast, Georgia’s unrealistic expectations of American protection and NATO power brought on the current conflict with Russia. Mongolia is also reluctant to join multilateral organizations and has stayed away from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Mongolians realize that no outside power can project its power at the heart of Inner Asia forever, and the reality of living between two giant neighbors is something that Mongolia will arguably have forever.

Of course, because Mongolia does not threaten the interests of Russia or China like Georgia threatened Russia (bypassing pipelines, American troops presence, NATO involvement, etc.), both countries generally think of Mongolia as a strategic backwater. So Moscow and Beijing can be more generouis with Mongolia becoming close to the US, and its role as a buffer state won’t change—at least not in the eyes of Moscow.

Guest post by Chief Wiggum.

The San Francisco Chronicle has an article that indicates that the Colombian Marxist group FARC is on its last legs:

Colombia’s efforts have rebels ‘falling apart’

Residents of this picturesque hill town set amid poultry and dairy farms readily recall the day leftist guerrillas bombed City Hall and then subjected them to extortion, robbery and worse. “If you didn’t cooperate with them, they took you away, they kidnapped you and they killed you,” said Hector Velasquez, a 45-year-old truck driver.

Velasquez is referring to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, which dominated the region’s 6,000 inhabitants for a decade until government soldiers drove it out in 2002. FARC’s supremacy in Quetame had long symbolized the weakness of the central government, which has been embroiled in a 44-year civil war with FARC and a smaller rebel group called the National Liberation Army. Both groups are on the U.S. State Department’s list of terrorist organizations.

But since 2000, the army – fat with $5 billion in U.S. military aid to defeat the rebels and combat drug traffickers – has driven the rebels out of Quetame and organized area peasants into a self-defense force. Today, only a few bullet holes around the main square – a 2-hour bus ride from the capital, Bogota – are reminders of the guerrillas’ reign.

Across Colombia, there are similar stories, causing some giddy officials to proclaim an imminent victory over Latin America’s oldest, richest and most powerful guerrilla army. They argue that FARC is now nothing more than an unorganized armed militia.

“The FARC is falling apart,” said Minister of Defense Juan Manuel Santos.

This article was quite a surprise, as the likelihood of a Colombian “victory” in this ongoing civil war is problematic. History shows that “light at the end of the tunnel” scenarios can be ephemeral. Kaplan’s discussion of Colombia in Imperial Grunts didn’t suggest a resolution anytime soon.

Counter indications? The failure of the US Congress to approve the Colombia free trade agreement. After the raid into Equador of a FARC camp, and the discovery of communications on a FARC laptop indicating that an Obama administration would be less supportive of the Colombian government.

Kaplan’s description of FARC sums up what the organization is about: “Karl Marx at the top and Adam Smith all the way down the command chain.”

Yet another guest post from Dr. Alfred Russel Wallace.

Plenty of documentation exists to support the existence of Pontius Pilate, a certain Roman governor of Judea. He is mentioned in all four Gospels, the Acts of the Apostles and in the letter to Timothy. He is also mentioned in three important contemporaneous Jewish sources, such as Josephus’ The Wars of the Jews and Philo of Alexandria’s Legatio ad Gaium. Physical evidence of his existence was discovered at Caesarea Maritima in 1961 in the form of a stone indicating he was Prefect of Judea at the time of the Crucifixion. What else do we know about him?

Pontius Pilate was appointed to Judea in 26 AD during the rule of Emperor Tiberius, and seems to have worked hard at keeping his Jewish subjects reasonably content with Roman rule. He learned from the mistakes of his predecessors and did not impose Roman religious symbols in Jewish religious spaces, built an aqueduct (albeit with temple money), but eventually fell foul of Jewish sensibilities when he put down a Samaritan rebellion. He was recalled to Rome in 36 AD and disappears from the historical record. Tradition has him buried in Vienne, in modern day France.

All four Gospels describe Jesus’ appearance before Pilate, albeit with subtly different descriptions. John has the famous interchange ‘So you are a king?’ Jesus answered, ‘You say that I am a king. For this I was born, and for this I came into the world, to testify to the truth. Everyone who belongs to the truth listens to my voice.’ Pilate asked him, ‘What is truth?’

All four Gospels also portray Pilate as absolving Jesus of guilt, but agreeing to crucify him to pacify the populace. Matthew has him washing his hands and saying, “I am innocent of this man’s blood; see to it yourselves.”

This was enough for the Ethiopian Orthodox church to canonize him and his wife (who warned him that Jesus was an innocent man). The Greek Orthodox Church also canonized Pilate’s wife (although not her husband). Although she is anonymous in the Gospel, she is known as Saint Procula.

The Western world has been less generous. Most portrayals of Pilate show him a weak politician prepared to sacrifice an innocent life to maintain the status quo. Whether we should blame him for this is open to debate (especially since his role is so central to our celebration of Easter), but he has served as a perennial villain. Some have seen him as doing the devil’s bidding. As the Rolling Stones reminded us in Sympathy for the Devil, “I was around when Jesus Christ had his moment of doubt and pain, Made damn sure that Pilate washed his hands, and sealed his fate.” As much of his biography is uncknown, he has been portrayed as a hard governor who ruled with an iron fist, or a sympathetic man who sees clearly how the story of Jesus will affect human history, or a mindless miltiary governor.

[It’s Oceania Day again, brought to you by the Strategist. We had some technical difficulties bringing you the post, but better late than never. – YH]

Back so soon? Australian troops patrolling in Honiara, Solomon Islands, April 2006.

It’s easy to understand why Canberra worries about the island arc to Australia’s north – Indonesia, New Guinea, and Melanesia. In 1942 the Japanese thrust deep into the Southwest Pacific, threatening to invade Australia from island bases. Allied victories at the Kokoda Trail, Guadalcanal and Midway averted the threat. But Australians remember the close call, and this is reflected in their approach to defence.

Australia’s defence policy is based on several key principles:

• alliance with the United States, but stand alone if necessary;
• defence of the mainland, and domination of Australia’s air/sea approaches; and
• attacking hostile forces as far away as practicable.

To do this, Australia needs high-tech air and naval forces with a qualitative edge over regional forces. It must also exert strategic influence over the island arc, to prevent hostile powers establishing a presence. For Australia, the island arc is like a fighter’s guard – get inside the guard and the fighter becomes unbalanced and exposed.

The problem for Canberra is that in recent times the arc has become unstable, with failed states, corrupt governments, violence, poverty and environmental degradation. Indonesia is struggling with Islamic extremism, and Melanesia is plagued by political and ethnic conflict. In the 1990s the phrase ‘Arc of Instability’ was coined. As Australian Labor leader Kevin Rudd recently commented, it has “gone from being a strategic concept a decade ago to an unsettling reality today”.

Instability raises the prospect of rising regional powers, such as China, gaining footholds close to Australia. It is not difficult to imagine a failing state seeking financial assistance from Beijing, and providing basing rights in return. For Canberra, China’s rise, and the perceived erosion of Australian influence in the Arc as Pacific states ‘look north’, are of growing concern.

There are more immediate worries. Canberra perceives that the Arc is becoming a haven for terrorists, drug traffickers, people smugglers and criminal financiers. These elements are attracted by growing lawlessness, corruption, and proximity to Australia. Conflict and economic collapse could trigger refugee waves, and require Australian intervention to evacuate nationals and provide humanitarian aid.

Nightmare scenarios include a fragmenting Indonesia, and the collapse of Papua New Guinea (PNG), a former Australian colony. With substantial security, economic and consular interests in PNG, Canberra would feel obliged to take control of the country. This would be an enormous drain on finances and manpower, and would expose Australian personnel to great risk.

Recognizing the high stakes involved, Canberra provides PNG with substantial financial support, and assists other governments with reforms. Since 1997 Australia has led a number of regional interventions in response to crises – notably East Timor and Solomon Islands.

There is currently a debate in Canberra about whether Australia should be more proactive in addressing the economic and social roots of instability – more ‘fences at the top of the cliff’. Invariably, this would involve greater cost and intrusion into Pacific sovereignty. One thing is certain – Canberra sees a bleak future for the Arc of Instability, and is resigned to further intervention.