I recently picked up an old friend, a text that I read in the early days of my personal education into realist foreign policy—Henry Kissinger’s Diplomacy —and found myself reflecting for several days on this passage in the first chapter.
Theorists of the balance of power often leave the impression that it is the natural form of international relations. In fact, balance-of-power systems have existed only rarely in human history. The Western Hemisphere has never known one, nor as the territory of contemporary China since the end of the period of warring states, over 2,000 years ago. For the greatest part of humanity and the longest periods of history, empire has been the typical mode of government. Empires have no interest in operating within an international system; they aspire to be the international system. Empires have no need for a balance of power. That is how the United States has conducted its foreign policy in the Americas, and China through most of its history in Asia.
Reading about the 19th and early 20th centuries, I found myself wondering—will a healthy and robust balance of power between the US, China, India, Europe, and possibly Russia and Japan, emerge in the 21st century? Empire, and the balance of power, both work well for preserving international order when they function. When they don’t function, the result is often war and disaster.

Comments to this entry
Felix
March 10, 2010
8:42 am
T. Greer
March 10, 2010
9:44 am
IJ
March 10, 2010
10:22 am
But questions are now being raised: is the Washington-based IMF biased? What should be NATO's new strategy? Should the UN Charter apply equally to all powers; for example, was the intervention in Iraq legitimate? As a sign of the times, the government in Britain has been obliged to hold a public inquiry [Chilcot] into Iraq.
The various submissions to Chilcot raise general points. Are the values of the UN worth upholding? If so, the enforcement system depends on nations volunteering to spend blood and treasure on the UN's behalf.
What's more, the balance of global power is changing. So are values. A few years ago the trend saw the General Assembly adopt 'Responsibility to Protect' [R2P], placing a duty on each government to protect its population from genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing. If the governments failed to protect, the international community was expected to intervene. However nowadays there's little enthusiasm for intervention on any grounds.
Introducing international rules that can be enforced seems the answer for economics and politics.
Greg R. Lawson
March 10, 2010
4:27 pm
tdaxp
March 10, 2010
5:28 pm
It is in our interests that the governments of the United States and the People's Republic be executive committees of the bourgeoisie.
McKellar
March 10, 2010
6:54 pm
When one power decides that they have more to gain by breaking the rules they do by keeping the rules in place, that's when you have devastating conflicts, and the potential for great empires to emerge.
The Balance of Power, then, isn't maintained so much through international law and debate, but through the international system of acceptable competition and conquest, i.e. economic investment, culture, the control of immigration.
T.Greer: What's her fascinating explanation? Everyone seems to want to keep it secret, or at least force me to actually buy the book.
Lexington Green
March 10, 2010
7:19 pm
Guest469
March 10, 2010
9:20 pm
That would actually be a terrible idea. Japan is a country that evoke rather unpleasant historical memories. For her part, Japan regards other Asian states with something between contempt and disinterest.
I would also call into question the feasibility of balancing a great power like China with any of her diminutive neighbors.
IMHO, there can be no balance without the presence of the United States. One end of the balance sits China, on the other end sits America, and ASEAN sits where she likes along the scale to avoid either the USA or PRC being too becoming too powerful. Unfortunately PRC and USA are not equal in power and adding Japan and South Korea to the mix makes it even less balanced so ASEAN nations tend to support China diplomatically in the UN and elsewhere.
Lexington Green
March 10, 2010
9:51 pm
Agreed that today, the USA is the Asian balancer. The USA is the offshore balancer for all of Eurasia, where Britain had been the offshore balancer for Europe. See Barry R. Posen, Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony, International Security, Vol. 28, Number 1, Summer 2003.
Hysteria, Histrionics, and Hypocrisy « 日本
March 10, 2010
11:32 pm
Max Kennerly
March 11, 2010
2:50 am
Curzon
March 11, 2010
5:26 am
I can't tell if the lessons of Europe in the 18th and 19th centuries are totally inapplicable, or a helpful reference, to 21st century Asia.
On the one hand, Europe is unique in how its geography made it easy for multiple states to emerge and for a balance of power to emerge. Kissinger is right in that this is the exception to the history of the world. Asia today has one emerging great power, China, which may be able to set the stage as an Empire and call lots of the diplomatic shots.
Or will it? It's also possible that China could be sufficiently balanced out by India, Japan and China, like France or Germany rising to take control of Europe, with either Japan or possibly the US playing the role of offshore balancer.
T. Greer
March 11, 2010
7:23 am
But to give you a two paragraph preview from my notes on the book:
That is the essence of Hui's argument. She gives a large number of case examples to back up her thesis, and also pens more than a few interesting thoughts as to why European states came to rely (up 'til the Napoleonic wars) on intermediary actors to accomplish their goals the states in ancient China simply increased the government's capacity to dominate society.
@Lexington Green:
What time period are you imagining this happening? When China had a functioning multistate system (600-221 BC - and perhaps the 3 kingdoms to 5 dynasties period as well, though I would have to be convinced that it counts) the Japaense lacked anything resembling a state, much less a military that could act as a balancing force. Or does your counter factual propose that the development of Japanese civilization is sped up a millennium or so?
Rommel
March 11, 2010
1:17 pm
McKellar
March 11, 2010
4:27 pm
As I read modern Chinese history, in particular the civil wars of the early 20th century to 1949, I was struck at how inevitable reunification seemed to all the parties involved, "the government's capacity to dominate society" having moved from a practical to a absolute ideological plane.
It would have been so easy for China to splinter into a Europe-like assortment of smaller nations then, but every faction leader, every warlord, every revolutionary seemed to assume that one would eventually win out, and they had better ally with that one power as soon as possible. Regional independence was simply not an option to be considered.
I would even argue that that 'all or nothing' attitude towards empire extended to the Japanese as well. As a distant cultural scion of the ancient Chinese empire, the Imperial Japanese saw themselves as a faction destined to take over the whole, like the Mongols, Manchu, and other had down before them. Simply being one Asian nation among many didn't make any sense.
Lexington Green's balancer theory makes a lot of sense in more modern contexts, from British support of Portugal to Soviet support of Mongolia. How about with the Roman Empire? Did they arise because of the fall of once-vital balancers (Greece, Egypt, Persia)? How about the development of banks and their ability to quickly move power (money) around the continent?
Lexington Green
March 11, 2010
4:50 pm
IJ
March 11, 2010
4:51 pm
Towards the end of 'Diplomacy', Kissinger criticises the international legal system we have had in the past.
"The failure to give the League of Nations a military enforcement mechanism underlined the problems inherent in Wilson's notion of collective security. The ineffectual Kellog-Briand Pact of 1928, by which nations renounced war as a means of policy, showed the limits of exclusively legal constraints. As Hitler was to demonstrate, in the world of diplomacy, a loaded gun is often more potent than a legal brief."
And if international law is to become effective, who should pay for its enforcement?
Barnett suggested that US policing actions should be funded by big exporters in Asia - there was an implicit agreement that they would take their trade surplus and flow it back into US debt instruments.
We surely need in the future a tangible guarantee of not just loans, but reimbursement for countries that commit to UN approved missions.
SJPONeill
March 11, 2010
10:51 pm
To say however that balance of power has worked ir probably no more true than saying a saucer can balance on top of a stick on its own: yes, it can for a second but in the absence of a stabilising factor i.e the spin, it will soon fall. The line "...Empire, and the balance of power..." should more correctly be "...Empire and the balance of power..."
The trick will be to get the political correctness looney tunes to accept a logical return to imperial ways, means and semantics...
Guest469
March 11, 2010
11:28 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIXH3-A8zMI
T. Greer
March 12, 2010
2:36 am
Regarding Rome - Arthur Eckstein wrote a book titled Mediterranean Anarchy, Interstate War, and the Rise of Rome which attempts to answer that very question. I have not read it, but it is near the top of my reading list. (If you cannot tell, I am a great fan of taking IR theory and applying to the past. It is too fun not to attempt, IMHO).
Regarding China - One notices that the periods of Chinese disunion shrink in length the closer to the present one comes. I think this reflects a psychological change as much as it does a technological one - whereas in the Warring States period the peoples of China viewed themselves as distinct as the peoples of Europe do today, by the time Mao came around the Chinese not only thought of themselves as one people, but were completely convinced that their destiny as a people was to be ruled by a centralized, imperial bureaucracy.
Sistema o imperio
March 12, 2010
9:07 am