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Chirol
Author

Chirol

Date

February 2nd, 2010

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Growing Insurgency in Russia

There has been yet another IED attack in Russia on the rail system. After Afghanistan and Iraq, Russia is one of the ‘hottest’ place for IED attacks and yet many go unreported in the mainstream news. Most target critical infrastructure such as oil and gas pipelines or transportation.

My immediate thought is whether the future of Russia may one day look like Nigeria. With dozens of ethnic groups, religions and a history of separatism and Islamic extremism it’s not unthinkable. Combine that with the country’s increasing reliance on its oil and gas industries for both economic and political power, and key elements are there for such a campaign.

Comments to this entry

tdaxp
February 2, 2010
5:55 pm
A good thing. Better have a random source of violence in the world than a state-level enemy of NATO and the EU.
Curzon
February 2, 2010
5:56 pm
Yeah, but one injured and disrupting rail service for several hours -- not quite the same as an Iraqi female suicide bomber blowing herself up in a crowd of Shia pilgrims and killing dozens and injuring scores more.
Oliver
February 2, 2010
6:05 pm
Russia would crack down as hard as necessary.
Thomas
February 2, 2010
7:06 pm
Americans tend to forget that Europe is, across the board, a less safe place than the USA as far as terrorism and ethnic upheaval go.

Germany, Spain and the UK, not to mention the Balkans have lived with the possibility of random explosions for decades. Baathists, RAF, IRA, UFF have all contributed to the net instability a number of European nations. The real question is whether these attacks in Russia are more similar to those that rendered the Balkans and that are endemic across much of Africa or if they are of the sort more common to Russia's western neighbors.
kurt9
February 2, 2010
7:41 pm
True. Europe had all of those left-wing terrorist groups during the 70's and even 80's. Bader-Meinhauf gang, Italian Red Brigades, Direct Action, and the Basque ETA. The Brits, of course, had the IRA, which had a nasty habit of putting bombs into rubbish bins in the train stations (which is why Victoria station had no rubbish bins when I passed through there in '91) among other nefarious deeds.

Now they have the radical Islamic groups to deal with. Presumably they got enough practice in dealing with the lefty groups in the 70's and 80's that they should have no problem dealing with the Muslims today. Russia's terrorism is probably no different, except that Russia is much poorer with a huge land area. So, they don't have the military and law enforcement resources to go after them like the Western Europeans do. Despite its size, Russia's military is actually quite weak.

European terrorism in the 70's was ideologically driven. I think Russia's today is ethnic/tribal driven under a thin veneer of Islamism.
spandrell
February 2, 2010
8:11 pm
As Oliver said, Russia will kill the bastards if necessary.
Russians are still a big majority of the population, and they have the will and resources to crack down. Nothing like any African or Middle eastern hellhole
Chirol
February 3, 2010
12:37 pm
I realize this incident is small. However, the fact that these types of attacks are continuing is what I'm focusing on. Each one varies with some causing major damage and others minor, but the fact that Russia is so big, that its impossible to secure such infrastructure, and that it has plenty of disgruntled groups is what I wanted to point out. It would also be the key for smaller states wanting to fight Russia, as John Robb has pointed out several times.
Mark Brueschke
February 3, 2010
4:14 pm
Maybe I'm ignorant of Russia since I focus on Israel, Iraq and Afghanistan, but to me the future of Russia seems to be trending towards city-states whose corporate interests control the wealth out in the hinterlands.

I know from what the Russians did in Lebanon, the government won't take kindly to hostage taking and they aren't squeamish about civilian casualties while rescuing Russian civilians.

Their military isn't adverse to casualties either, heck they'd rather take casualties than lose equipment.
Recommended Reading (2010-02-04) « Automatic Ballpoint
February 4, 2010
3:04 pm
[...] Chirol reminds us that after Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia is the most popular destination for IEDs. He wonders: is Russia’s future as the new [...]
Bob
February 4, 2010
10:55 pm
Sounds like a good "What if graphic novel."
RichL
February 8, 2010
3:27 am
There isn't a great deal of wealth in the hinterlands. Any person with anything on the ball in Russia moves to Moscow or St. Petersburg. That's why there are so many pretty and tall women in these cities.
M. N. Silva
February 8, 2010
12:44 pm
Russia is highly centralised more cohesive and not as dependent on foreign bodies as Nigeria.

The same will not happen.