The Alien Invasion Scenario from Avatar

Sometimes, movies inspire thought on public policy, and the film Avatar made me reconsider one outlandish doomsday scenario: how human society should react to an alien invasion.

Arriving with a whimper, not a bang.

Typically, Hollywood films portray alien invasion as either (1) a horde of invisible spies in our midst, or, (2) a sudden attack of overwhelming force. Avatar portrays a third scenario—an alien planet is first colonized by business interests, protected not by a government or state military but by private mercenaries, and who generally use their overwhelming power in reactive mode, which is, objectively, disproportionate and excessive.

The Avatar scenario feels more believable. Throughout human history, conquerors are typically prefaced by scouts, diplomats, and exploratory militant missions, while colonization is typically carried out by independent pioneers or merchant adventurers. Throughout the film, I felt that certain aspects of the plot felt familiar, and that they were taken from the experience of human history, when primitive societies have come into contact with technologically advanced people.

It feels prudent, then, to prepare for an alien invasion not by watching Independence Day and getting pumped for a gung ho, all-or-nothing last stand, but by looking at the experience of wars and empires through history. Consider the experience of some major nations that survived colonization or attempted colonization:

• Alexander’s invasion looks in retrospect like a massive and sudden slaughter, but his was a reactive invasion that only followed after centuries of Persian subjugation of the divided Greek city states. Similarly, in the struggle between Rome v.s. Carthage, the Phoenician superpower held domination over the Mediterranean Sea for centuries and had the power to invade the Italian territory of Rome when tensions flared, and only through steady growth and perseverance did Rome finally win and destroy Carthage. It could take centuries to beat back an alien force, but it may be possible through adoption of new technology over time.
• In India, the corporate interests of London preceded British Imperial authority by playing the various Rajs and warlords of against one another, slowly taking power nationwide when that was easier than propping up a feckless leader, with the population surviving but impoverished. It is possible that an alien invasion could try to play off the major world powers against each other by rewarding some countries with amazing technology in exchange for mining or colonization rights, even of common resources. How could and would the world react if, say, Australia was rewarded with futuristic technologies in exchange for coastal facilities that harvested ocean water?
• In China, colonial interests were able to dominate the coast but found it difficult to penetrate the interior, and benefited by pushing opium on the public, both financially, and in subduing the locals. An alien species could take control of key centers of power and subjugate the population with drugs, food, or entertainment—probably a lot easier than subjugating with force and facing rebellions and sabotage.
• In Japan, when faced with technologically advanced invaders, modernizers pushed out the old government and rapidly modernized by adopting both the methods and technology of the West, later starting its own regional empire. This is the most promising example from world history that shows how we could learn from would-be colonizers or invaders, while remembering that hubris shouldn’t get the better of us. Also, Japan was fortunate that it quickly quashed all rebellions and those loyal to the old order, while Korea, which had the potential to follow Japan’s path, was thwarted by infighting.

Of course, there is much to make us fatalistic or cynical. The Mongols who galloped across Eurasia slaughtered the populations of sieged cities, the colonists in North America and Australia who obliterated the indigenous population with force and disease, and the Moriori who were exterminated without pity by Mauri invaders are just some examples. But I think many examples suggest that an alien invasion would not necessarily be game over for human civilization. Many societies that exist today did so through a social Darwin-esque survival of the fittest. Our own history teaches us much of how to proactively react.