Comments on: Azerbaijan Preparing for War?

By: von Moltke

von Moltke — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 06:55:42 +0000

@ Oliver & Robert

Not sure if this is Western inconsistency, or that Georgia has substantial democratizing elements that Azerbaijan does not. In Yugoslavia, the question may be more of a Bosnian one, as “Yugoslavia” has no history. Why not also the territorial integrity of Hungary or Germany? Armenia? Cyprus? Jordan? The general inclination appears to be towards territorial integrity of modern, recognized nations, viz. Iraq, Sudan, Slovakia, Bosnia (?), Yemen, Georgia, Somalia … all candidates for partition through local self-determination.

Azeris are essentially Turks who settled in Persia. It is not clear whether they gravitate more towards the contiguous state of Turkey, occupying substantial parts of traditional Armenia, or to their fellow-Shi’i Persians, who more or less dominated Azeri politics and culture from their arrival in the Caucasus until around the 1800s. Azerbaijan itself is little more than a Soviet fiefdom, as the remainder of the Azeris are not the minor fraction in NK, but rather the majority living happily in northern Iran. Note that the relations between Persia and Armenia are quite good.

By: Richard

Richard — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 01:50:32 +0000

The Russians (Soviets) backed both sides at different times during the NK war.

The Georgian / Russian war of 2008 has changed everyone’s calculations. It is unlikely that the Azeris, despite their military spending, are ready for a military adventure. Not least they would be concerned about the BTC pipeline which passes within 30 kms of Armenian territory and which would be a target in the event of an attack by Azerbaijan.

For an interesting analysis:
http://www.acnis.am/publications/2009/THE%20MILITARY%20BALANCE%20OF%20POWER%20IN%20THE%20SOUTH%20CAUCASUS.pdf

By: Robert

Robert — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:06:38 +0000

On the one hand we are told that Putin and Aliyev are ex KGB/FSB drinking pals and then again you say with reason that you think that Russia would support Armenia. It is possible that the Western powers meaning US/NATO and the EU think that a war might give them an opportunity to move “peacekeepers” in and strengthen their wedge to the Caspian energy basin, on the other hand Azerbaijan knows that it is between a rock and a hard place between Russia and Iran neither of whom are likely willingly to tolerate western troops on the Caspian shore. So I think Aliyev will tread very carefully.
OLIVER - Absolutely! How many articles have you read pointing out the total inconsistency of western policy accepting the situation in NK and at the same time shrieking about sacred Georgian territory not to mention ex Yugoslavia and Serbia.

By: Oliver

Oliver — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 10:50:37 +0000

I wonder why many care about Georgia’s territorial integrity, but few about Azerbaijan’s.

By: Thomas

Thomas — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:16:19 +0000

We often joke that Americans can’t find most countries on a map. I had always thought myself better informed than most of my countrymen but I have to admit complete ignorance of this entire conflict.

Damn you! Now I have to go research.

By: dj

dj — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:36:46 +0000

It would be interesting if it does go hot how the rest of the Caucasus reacts. Chechen’s like Shamil Basayev fought on the Azeri side in the 90s (Then fought the Georgians on the Abkhaz side). The Armenians proved to be very tough in NK.

By: Chirol

Chirol — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:35:24 +0000

Turkey and Armenia are closer than ever to establishing relations, something AZ is none too thrilled about. I’m not sure inhowfar that plays into its current rhetoric, but it is something I should have mentioned.

By: ElamBend

ElamBend — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:09:12 +0000

Didn’t Armenia and Turkey just sign an accord? This could play into Azerbaijan’s bravado. As I recall, the Azeris weren’t too big on a Turkey-Armenia friendship/understanding.