Entry details

MF
Author

Munro Ferguson

Date

November 20th, 2009

Tags

Comments

18 Comments so far.
Add yours.

Climategate?

The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.

From an alleged email taken by a hacker who’d breached Britain’s climate research unit network and made off with a miriad of emailings and documents. A more extensive account of the less than flattering communications is here. I very much doubt that this is the death knell of the climate change machine but it’s certainly going to raise quite a few eyebrows. Bearing in mind that the above and other quotations are of limited context, it looks as though much of the scientific effort going into climate change is tainted by subjective motivation.

I’m no scientist but it seems to me that an analytical conclusion based on data that is either “inadequate” or that maintains a glaring, inexplicable aberration (that “lack of warming” bit) is questionable at best. This, in and of itself, doesn’t boot the current supposed scientific “consensus” out the door but it does, in my mind, lend some weight to the more thoughtful skeptics out there.

Comments to this entry

dj
November 21, 2009
3:18 am
When you have governments and other groups tossing money around for a political feel good topic like Climate Change (formally global warming) it makes sense to create results the political class wants.

My experience with University research is the Faculty member runs around writing proposals and meeting people for funding. This takes up most of their time. It also distracts them from their other duties like teaching classes, office hours etc.

The surprising thing is they do little of the research, which in this case is computer modeling. I don't know who would ever want to model the Earth's climate. So the Professor uses his graduate students (slave labor). Modeling sucks, so I would not be surprised that they cut corners and overly simplified and very complex and dynamic subject.
McKellar
November 21, 2009
5:35 am
This is a chance to not be cynical about the modern practice of science, as much as there is to be cynical about, in terms of funding and politics. All this shows is that the world is a little bit more complicated than scientists had reckoned, that the models need to be tweaked a bit, maybe some different natural processes brought into the equations. And even if the slowdown eventually disproves global warming, the scientists will (should) be the first to admit it.

What bothers me is the long slippery slope from Munro Ferguson's "thoughtful skeptics" to ID types who believe science is just a matter of opinion, and so make thoughtful, critical examination of ideas and evidence impossible amid accusations of lies and bias.
T. Greer
November 21, 2009
10:20 am
For fairness' sake, you can find the perspective of those hacked here.
Chris Swanson
November 21, 2009
6:11 pm
I've always felt somewhat iffy on the whole global warming thing. I can't help but notice that there's been periods of time when we've been quite a bit warmer as well as those when we've been a lot colder, and all that without even having industrialization.

That said, I also don't really care. I think that it's worth ending pollution for the sake of ending pollution.
Thomas
November 21, 2009
7:07 pm
Ah ha! A collection of out-of-context communications indicating that a handful of scientists at a single institution had some disagreements over professional practices and the interpretation of data prove conclusively that the entire discipline of climate science is fraudulent.

There's a perfect historical parallel here to the first council of Nicea. The bishops at that meeting did little but argue over interpretation and policy and because any disagreement or argument between experts invalidates the entirety of the related body of thought the Catholic Church disintegrated in 325 CE never to be consulted nor to wield authority ever again.

This is exactly like that.
bob
November 21, 2009
7:16 pm
The whole eco-hysteria deal long ago devolved into less of a science and more of a new religious movement. Human beings enjoy apocalyptic belief systems.

The fiasco of the eco-movement is that it shows clearly what happens when science gets politicized -- scientists end up engaging primarily in politics and not science.

The Green movement really is best understood as a new religious movement that has taken root in the secular post-Christian elite of America and Europe. Human beings are naturally wired for religious and transcendental beliefs. The Green movement fits almost perfectly into the dessicated husk that Christianity left.

The eco-bullies cloak their religion in scientific jargon, but the gleam in their eye when they accuse the sinners of heresy show their true nature. And Al Gore is a televangelist, getting rich and living fat while scolding the people that they are sinners bringing doom upon themselves. Gore has made at least $100 million off this doom mongering, telling people to use less energy while he lives in a mansion! That's a beautiful scam if you can pull it off.

It's all a farce that's been repeated throughout human history and will be again.
Munro Ferguson
November 21, 2009
9:30 pm
Thomas, I'm not sure where you got the idea that I'd categorically dismissed climate science as fraudulent.
ElamBend
November 22, 2009
3:52 am
Thomas,
I invite you to look at what has leaked. Most of it seems very contextual and quite damning.
Curzon
November 22, 2009
12:57 pm
I think there are two sides to this.

One the one hand much of it is taken out of context and I agree with much that appears in the T. Greer link. There is no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy, grand plan to scheme up climate change, or that global warming is a hoax.

Of course, the problem that skeptics such as myself see, is that there is more than an assumption or a hypothesis that the world is warming -- there's a belief, based on faith, that the world is warming, and that this is bad. That's religion, not science.
Alfred Russel Wallace
November 23, 2009
3:30 am
I agree with Bob and Curzon that much of the green movement is religion, not science. But there is the troublesome fact that CO2 IS a greenhouse gas, so it should be having some effect, even if small..... and the ethical truth that we should save some petroleum for our grandchildren...
Roy Berman
November 23, 2009
4:27 am
No particular offense intended to the University of East Anglia, but I would be a lot more bothered by these leaked documents if they had been from a research institution I had actually heard of before.
Roy Berman
November 23, 2009
4:41 am
And by the way, even if excess carbon is not having any particular long-term effect on global temperatures, there is absolutely no doubt that it is destroying the ecology of the oceans. And even if THAT were not true, we would still have a limited supply of fossil fuels that we need to get away from sooner rather than later.
TS
November 23, 2009
8:04 pm
Through a personal connection, I know a bit about the UN IPCC process that has led, over the course a decade or more of international conferences, to the "scientific consensus" regarding global warming/change/whatever. The bottom line is that it is indeed a consensus -- i.e., a negotiated, watered-down, agreed-upon summary of the best literature and research from around the world. There are many scientists involved in IPCC negotiations who think the situation is in fact a lot more dire than what is stated in the final reports. Likewise, there are plenty of scientists involved who don't see quite as much long-term change or damage or problems. But they all get together, often, and the final IPCC reports are what they can all agree on.

Climate science, perhaps more so than most other kinds of science nowadays, is immensely complicated, based on ever-changing and incomplete computer models (which are incredibly complex, but still just models, after all). Climate research involves all kinds of wonky feedback loops, where some things get warmer and some things get colder, some changes accelerate over time, and some trends burn themselves out.

The most well-known example of a counter-intuitive "global warming" feedback loop is that when a certain percentage of Greenland melts, the salinity of the N. Atlantic will change, thereby shutting down the "conveyor belt" current that cycles warm surface water up from the tropics to Europe, and carries deeper cold water back south. When that ocean current shuts down, England will have the same climate as Québec. All because of "global warming." The question for the scienticians is when (or if?) enough of the miles of ice on top of Greenland will melt into the Atlantic, and how much fresh water it would take to shut down that current. It's tricky.

Skepticism + understanding of the processes of science is the best situation.
Munro Ferguson
November 23, 2009
10:07 pm
Roy, I don't disagree that environmental concerns need to be addressed and that we certainly need to work toward fuel alternatives. However we're spending tons of money and time concentrating on mitigating climate change through reduction in CO2. I don't hear anyone laying any contingencies for the possibility that human climate forcing is either fallacy or marginal or that maybe another more potent ghg (methane) is a major factor and that whatever we do regarding CO2, the planets climate will still, naturally, undergo drastic change. This lack of breadth of scope in addressing the issue doesn't smell of science, it smells of self interest.

TS, thanks for the insight. That's a whole lot of vague to be considered conclusive evidence to bring about scientific consensus and subsequent dire warnings and policy recommendations. Agreed on the skepticism which seems to have zero place on the proponents field of play.
Michael Turton
November 24, 2009
3:58 am
RealClimate.org provides much of the context for the out of context stolen emails released just ahead of Copenhagen (what a coincidence!). In the email you cite, global warming is not being discussed, but net radiation readings at the top of the atmosphere, as I recall. The speaker is lamenting the fact that observational technology does not exist to capture the changes. It has nothing to do with measurements of actual global warming.

These emails can only be "damning" if one subscribes to the nutcase belief that all the world's climate scientists and scientific organizations are engaged in a massive conspiracy and fraud to rig data and interpretations. Such a claim is beyond ridiculous. It is in fact totally religious in its denial of reality.

I used to write on energy policy in the US for the government of Japan back in the early 1990s, and even then one encountered the same nonsense from the Denialist side, and in many cases the same tiny group of paid "skeptics" who were funded by Exxon and other fossil fuel organizations and firms through networks of institutes and thinktanks like Heartland, the George C Marshall Institute, Western Fuels, etc. Exxonsecrets.org does a pretty good job of tracking the funding flows.

Belief that humans a driving the current spike in global temps is not religion but its polar opposite: a belief (1) based on evidence whose outcomes are (2) amenable to human action. In religion, no evidence supports belief, and the end of the world must be passively awaited, not actively aborted.

Speaking of religion, in fact Denialism most resembles another agenda-driven, cherry-picking, evidence fre belief: Creationism...

Virtually all world's life scientists treat evolution as a fact
Virtually all world's climate and related scientists treat AGW as fact

All world scientific bodies are evolutionist
All world scientific bodies hold to AGW

Few scientists not religiously committed support creationism
Few scientists not in pay of fossil fuel firms deny AGW

Satan is controlling the scientists in a giant global conspiracy
Environmentalists are controlling the scientists in a giant global conspiracy

No valid Creationist model to explain actual data from earth history
No valid Denialist model to explain current alarming warming trend

Large, well-funded, primarily right-wing network of bogus institutes and think tanks pushing Creationism
Large, well-funded, primarily right-wing network of bogus institutions and think tanks pushing Denialism

Real life scientists must operate in the shadow of ongoing program to discredit their work
Real climate scientists must operate in the shadow of ongoing program to discredit their work

We don't want to face philosophical implications of being just damned dirty apes We don't want to face lifestyle changes because we're roasting the world to death

Unremitting repetition of false and long-discredited "facts": Dinosaur tracks and human tracks together, all known non-human skulls are just apes, the eye could not have evolved...
Unremitting repetition of false and long-discredited "facts": global cooling since 1998, warming is due to urban island effects, global cooling was predicted in the 1970s....

Constant repetition of: New discoveries cast doubt on evolution!
Constant repetition of: New discoveries cast doubt on AGW!

Ver. 1.0 Creationism (Earth is under 10,000 years old) under pressure of reality of evolution morphing to Ver. 2.0 (Intelligent Design)
Ver. 1.0 Denialism (global warming isn't happening, is hoax) under pressure of reality of warming morphing to Ver. 2.0 (there is global warming but it is natural so go ahead and drill baby drill)

"Christianity"
"Free Market"

...and most recently...

Piltdown Man
Hacked Emails

Michael Turton
View from Taiwan blog
some1
November 27, 2009
9:47 am
"I used to write on energy policy in the US for the government of Japan back in the early 1990s, and even then one encountered the same nonsense from the Denialist side, and in many cases the same tiny group of paid "skeptics" who were funded by Exxon and other fossil fuel organizations and firms through networks of institutes and thinktanks like Heartland, the George C Marshall Institute, Western Fuels, etc. Exxonsecrets.org does a pretty good job of tracking the funding flows."

I see what you just did there. You do understand that guilt by association is a fallacy, right?
JAson
November 27, 2009
8:45 pm
Whoever it was that left the link to exxon-secrets website is a complete tool of the emerging world order & so is Greenpeace. Can you actually believe they have agents here who are co-mingling the facts and fallacies. Greenpeace is a tool of the globalists to attack the layman and his un-green habits. They put pressure on governments to pass silly legislation like Kyoto to further the one-world governance agenda. In fact, ExxonMobil funds both sides of the argument but make no mistake, the eugenicist families that own Exxon want a world climate treaty, very very badly.
jorgekafkazar
November 27, 2009
9:28 pm
"RealClimate.org provides much of the context for the out of context stolen emails released just ahead of Copenhagen (what a coincidence!)..."--Michael Turton

Referring to RealClimate as an "authority" in this matter is ludicrous. RealClimate is run by the same conniving bunch of pseudos that are named in many of the emails. As far as the "just in time for Copenhagen" part, Paul Hudson, BBC weather presenter and alleged climate change expert, claims: ‘I was forwarded the chain of emails on the 12th October...”’