The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.
From an alleged email taken by a hacker who’d breached Britain’s climate research unit network and made off with a miriad of emailings and documents. A more extensive account of the less than flattering communications is here. I very much doubt that this is the death knell of the climate change machine but it’s certainly going to raise quite a few eyebrows. Bearing in mind that the above and other quotations are of limited context, it looks as though much of the scientific effort going into climate change is tainted by subjective motivation.
I’m no scientist but it seems to me that an analytical conclusion based on data that is either “inadequate” or that maintains a glaring, inexplicable aberration (that “lack of warming” bit) is questionable at best. This, in and of itself, doesn’t boot the current supposed scientific “consensus” out the door but it does, in my mind, lend some weight to the more thoughtful skeptics out there.

Comments to this entry
dj
November 21, 2009
3:18 am
My experience with University research is the Faculty member runs around writing proposals and meeting people for funding. This takes up most of their time. It also distracts them from their other duties like teaching classes, office hours etc.
The surprising thing is they do little of the research, which in this case is computer modeling. I don't know who would ever want to model the Earth's climate. So the Professor uses his graduate students (slave labor). Modeling sucks, so I would not be surprised that they cut corners and overly simplified and very complex and dynamic subject.
McKellar
November 21, 2009
5:35 am
What bothers me is the long slippery slope from Munro Ferguson's "thoughtful skeptics" to ID types who believe science is just a matter of opinion, and so make thoughtful, critical examination of ideas and evidence impossible amid accusations of lies and bias.
T. Greer
November 21, 2009
10:20 am
Chris Swanson
November 21, 2009
6:11 pm
That said, I also don't really care. I think that it's worth ending pollution for the sake of ending pollution.
Thomas
November 21, 2009
7:07 pm
There's a perfect historical parallel here to the first council of Nicea. The bishops at that meeting did little but argue over interpretation and policy and because any disagreement or argument between experts invalidates the entirety of the related body of thought the Catholic Church disintegrated in 325 CE never to be consulted nor to wield authority ever again.
This is exactly like that.
bob
November 21, 2009
7:16 pm
The fiasco of the eco-movement is that it shows clearly what happens when science gets politicized -- scientists end up engaging primarily in politics and not science.
The Green movement really is best understood as a new religious movement that has taken root in the secular post-Christian elite of America and Europe. Human beings are naturally wired for religious and transcendental beliefs. The Green movement fits almost perfectly into the dessicated husk that Christianity left.
The eco-bullies cloak their religion in scientific jargon, but the gleam in their eye when they accuse the sinners of heresy show their true nature. And Al Gore is a televangelist, getting rich and living fat while scolding the people that they are sinners bringing doom upon themselves. Gore has made at least $100 million off this doom mongering, telling people to use less energy while he lives in a mansion! That's a beautiful scam if you can pull it off.
It's all a farce that's been repeated throughout human history and will be again.
Munro Ferguson
November 21, 2009
9:30 pm
ElamBend
November 22, 2009
3:52 am
I invite you to look at what has leaked. Most of it seems very contextual and quite damning.
Curzon
November 22, 2009
12:57 pm
One the one hand much of it is taken out of context and I agree with much that appears in the T. Greer link. There is no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy, grand plan to scheme up climate change, or that global warming is a hoax.
Of course, the problem that skeptics such as myself see, is that there is more than an assumption or a hypothesis that the world is warming -- there's a belief, based on faith, that the world is warming, and that this is bad. That's religion, not science.
Alfred Russel Wallace
November 23, 2009
3:30 am
Roy Berman
November 23, 2009
4:27 am
Roy Berman
November 23, 2009
4:41 am
TS
November 23, 2009
8:04 pm
Climate science, perhaps more so than most other kinds of science nowadays, is immensely complicated, based on ever-changing and incomplete computer models (which are incredibly complex, but still just models, after all). Climate research involves all kinds of wonky feedback loops, where some things get warmer and some things get colder, some changes accelerate over time, and some trends burn themselves out.
The most well-known example of a counter-intuitive "global warming" feedback loop is that when a certain percentage of Greenland melts, the salinity of the N. Atlantic will change, thereby shutting down the "conveyor belt" current that cycles warm surface water up from the tropics to Europe, and carries deeper cold water back south. When that ocean current shuts down, England will have the same climate as Québec. All because of "global warming." The question for the scienticians is when (or if?) enough of the miles of ice on top of Greenland will melt into the Atlantic, and how much fresh water it would take to shut down that current. It's tricky.
Skepticism + understanding of the processes of science is the best situation.
Munro Ferguson
November 23, 2009
10:07 pm
TS, thanks for the insight. That's a whole lot of vague to be considered conclusive evidence to bring about scientific consensus and subsequent dire warnings and policy recommendations. Agreed on the skepticism which seems to have zero place on the proponents field of play.
Michael Turton
November 24, 2009
3:58 am
These emails can only be "damning" if one subscribes to the nutcase belief that all the world's climate scientists and scientific organizations are engaged in a massive conspiracy and fraud to rig data and interpretations. Such a claim is beyond ridiculous. It is in fact totally religious in its denial of reality.
I used to write on energy policy in the US for the government of Japan back in the early 1990s, and even then one encountered the same nonsense from the Denialist side, and in many cases the same tiny group of paid "skeptics" who were funded by Exxon and other fossil fuel organizations and firms through networks of institutes and thinktanks like Heartland, the George C Marshall Institute, Western Fuels, etc. Exxonsecrets.org does a pretty good job of tracking the funding flows.
Belief that humans a driving the current spike in global temps is not religion but its polar opposite: a belief (1) based on evidence whose outcomes are (2) amenable to human action. In religion, no evidence supports belief, and the end of the world must be passively awaited, not actively aborted.
Speaking of religion, in fact Denialism most resembles another agenda-driven, cherry-picking, evidence fre belief: Creationism...
Virtually all world's life scientists treat evolution as a fact
Virtually all world's climate and related scientists treat AGW as fact
All world scientific bodies are evolutionist
All world scientific bodies hold to AGW
Few scientists not religiously committed support creationism
Few scientists not in pay of fossil fuel firms deny AGW
Satan is controlling the scientists in a giant global conspiracy
Environmentalists are controlling the scientists in a giant global conspiracy
No valid Creationist model to explain actual data from earth history
No valid Denialist model to explain current alarming warming trend
Large, well-funded, primarily right-wing network of bogus institutes and think tanks pushing Creationism
Large, well-funded, primarily right-wing network of bogus institutions and think tanks pushing Denialism
Real life scientists must operate in the shadow of ongoing program to discredit their work
Real climate scientists must operate in the shadow of ongoing program to discredit their work
We don't want to face philosophical implications of being just damned dirty apes We don't want to face lifestyle changes because we're roasting the world to death
Unremitting repetition of false and long-discredited "facts": Dinosaur tracks and human tracks together, all known non-human skulls are just apes, the eye could not have evolved...
Unremitting repetition of false and long-discredited "facts": global cooling since 1998, warming is due to urban island effects, global cooling was predicted in the 1970s....
Constant repetition of: New discoveries cast doubt on evolution!
Constant repetition of: New discoveries cast doubt on AGW!
Ver. 1.0 Creationism (Earth is under 10,000 years old) under pressure of reality of evolution morphing to Ver. 2.0 (Intelligent Design)
Ver. 1.0 Denialism (global warming isn't happening, is hoax) under pressure of reality of warming morphing to Ver. 2.0 (there is global warming but it is natural so go ahead and drill baby drill)
"Christianity"
"Free Market"
...and most recently...
Piltdown Man
Hacked Emails
Michael Turton
View from Taiwan blog
some1
November 27, 2009
9:47 am
I see what you just did there. You do understand that guilt by association is a fallacy, right?
JAson
November 27, 2009
8:45 pm
jorgekafkazar
November 27, 2009
9:28 pm
Referring to RealClimate as an "authority" in this matter is ludicrous. RealClimate is run by the same conniving bunch of pseudos that are named in many of the emails. As far as the "just in time for Copenhagen" part, Paul Hudson, BBC weather presenter and alleged climate change expert, claims: ‘I was forwarded the chain of emails on the 12th October...”’