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Chirol
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Chirol

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September 28th, 2009

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Chirol’s Monday Roundup

There’s been plenty afoot in the world of geopolitics. Here’s a brief roundup:

#1 What Happened:

Brazil VP says country should build nuclear arms

BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) – Brazil’s vice president says his country should develop nuclear weapons. Jose Alencar says “a nuclear weapon has great importance” to prevent attacks on Brazil because of its extensive borders and maritime holdings. Alencar tells Brazilian newspapers that Brazil doesn’t have a program to develop nuclear weapons, but should. Alencar’s influence is relatively limited and he is not a member of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s party. Brazilian officials insist they are developing nuclear energy only for peaceful means.

What it means: Unbeknownst to most, Brazil had an advanced nuclear weapons program several decades ago as did Argentina. They eventually came to settle their differences and agree on a bilateral inspection program, rather unique in the world. With Brazil beginning to see itself as a world player and Venezuela trying to launch a “peaceful” nuclear program, this may be a trial balloon or more likely a warning.

#2 What Happened:

Egypt Pursues Europeans Taking Arabic Classes

Many deeply religious students from Europe come to Egypt to learn Arabic. The question is: are these European Salafists coming to study the language of the Koran or to prepare terrorist attacks? [...] Arabic language schools in Nasr City are doing good business. Young Salafists from Europe come to Egypt in great numbers to learn the language of the Koran, the holy book that Salafists believe can only be understood in the original language in which it was divinely revealed to the prophet Mohammed.

What it means:
The West will have to reexamine its assumptions about the source of terrorist threats. While cases of Westerners turned terrorists have happened and made news, they are still seen as an exception. As we are seeing recently in the US and Europe, it may be time to reevaluate our conception of who is/could be a terrorist. Additionally, working with countries like Egypt, Saudi, Yemen and others for monitoring foreign language learners will be increasingly important.

#3 What Happened:

Majority of Mexicans think life would be better in the U.S., survey finds

Most Mexicans think their lives would be better in the United States, and one in three said they’d move to the U.S. if they could, according to the latest findings on Mexican attitudes from the Pew Global Attitudes Project. Half of those who said they’d migrate north of the border said they would do so without permission, although recent data on immigration suggests that the flow of Mexicans north is slowing. President Felipe Calderon’s military-led campaign against the country’s drug lords and organized-crime networks is “overwhelmingly endorsed” by the majority of Mexicans, although large majorities describe crime (81%) and illegal drugs (73%) as very big problems, according to the study.

What it means:
When the majority of your country wants to leave, there are serious long term issues to be dealt with. That means combining a shorter term solution on the US side (a wall and more LE on the border) with big picture policies in Mexico will be crucial. It’d be interesting to see the same numbers for Central and South American countries and then Eastern Europe/North Africa/Middle East for those who want to go to Europe. More proof that migration will be a major national security challenge in the future.

#4 What Happened:

Merkel set to head new center-right government

Early exit polls show that German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives have won 33.5 percent of the vote, putting them on course to form a government with their preferred partners, the pro-business FDP. An exit poll by public broadcaster ZDF showed the Free Democratic Party (FDP) on 14.5 percent. That puts Merkel on track for a second term at the helm of Europe’s largest economy. It also allows the chancellor to end her awkward four-year “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats (SPD), which has frustrated her efforts to push through economic reforms.

What it means:
Germany will stay in Afghanistan for the near future although any significant increase in troop levels or type of participation is extremely unlikely. Additionally, the SPD took a major blow to the extreme left which garnered 12% of the vote. “Die Linke” was founded by members of the East German SED party and has been growing in recent years. Imagine if the Nazis got to restart their party after the war and change the name! While it does divide the left and thus strengthen conservatives, the rise of extreme parties is worrying.

Comments to this entry

Master Cook
September 28, 2009
6:48 pm
Some nice links, but I have to take exception to the comment on German politics.

First, the DDR does not equal Nazi Germany.

Second Die Linke was born of a merger of disaffected members of the SPD and the reform elements of the SED. The SED link is really pretty thin at this point.

I worry about the tendency of American commentators to see Nazis everywhere.
tdaxp
September 28, 2009
7:17 pm
Master Cook's comment is interesting. Whatever you do, don't go around conflating one totalitarian regime (the DDR) with another (the GDR).
Chirol
September 28, 2009
7:47 pm
Master Cook: I'd like to know what info you're basing your comments on. From my reading on teh Stasi, after the collapse of the DDR, many of the higher up SED members who were not jailed or put on trail formed the PDS which later became the Linke. Check

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_of_Democratic_Socialism_(Germany)

Master Cook & Dan: The DDR was a monstrous regime guilty of murdering and jailing hundreds of thousands of people. It's secret police was more brutal and widespread than even the Gestapo. The DDR was indeed a continuation of the Nazi regime in some ways right down to the uniforms they wore. In fact, not long after WWII, the DDR had to reopen abotu 11 concentration camps because it ran out of room for its political prisoners. There's simply no defense of it.

My point in comparing it is that after a second bad chapter in Germany's history, the criminal regime was NOT dealt with satisfactorally like after WWII where many were prosecuted/jailed/hanged/etc. Far far less effort went into punishing the DDR regime than teh 3rd reich and that is in itself a crime. Even worse is that many SED members were allowed to go back into politics.
ElamBend
September 29, 2009
3:29 am
Chirol, I agree with your indignation, however, given the circumstances of the time it might have been the price of unification. (or that is, one more part of it).
Kirk Sowell
September 29, 2009
3:34 am
Two comments:

Nomination for understatement of the year: "When the majority of your country wants to leave, there are serious long term issues to be dealt with."

European Muslims studying Arabic: As for the terrorist link, it is just hard to say. A lot of the non-Arab Muslim students of Arabic I've known are harmless, some I'm not so sure. But not a good sign for those who believe Muslim Europeans will integrate. Even assuming no violent tendencies, attempts to enlarge the umma as a political entity in Europe has even more negative repurcussions in the long run.
Lexington Green
September 29, 2009
3:35 pm
When the Soviets took over eastern Germany, they literally kept some of the Gestapo personnel at work, with a change of uniform. I cannot recall where I read this, so no cite. But it makes sense. The cops know who the trouble-makers are, where the keys to the jail cells are kept, where the files are kept, and it makes no sense to start from scratch. The degree of continuity between the Stasi and the Gestapo is well-documented. It is amazing the extent to which Western Leftists will make excuses for the DDR, which was something of a pin-up model for them during the Cold War. My father in law (an academic Leftist) once said that East Germany seemed to him to have been the best country in the world, and he mourned its loss: (1) everyone has a job and health care, (2) everyone has equality and no one was allowed to be rich, and (3) vulgar popular culture was not tolerated, and classical music and other high culture were well-funded and available to everyone. This was long after the Wall fell. You cannot make this stuff up.
Ralph Hitchens
September 29, 2009
5:18 pm
The Brazilian VP clearly has cognition/analysis problems. What is certain about nuclear weapons is that 1) they are hideously expensive to produce, and 2) they have no military utility. It's also baffling that a senior political figure in Brazil would have any reason to suppose that any conceivable territorial threats exist that would justify even far more modest military investments, like 4th generation jet fighters or another aircraft carrier. What does it take to convince people that they live in a "zone of peace?"
Lexington Green
September 29, 2009
5:28 pm
"...they have no military utility."

Really?

Are they not a perfect and total deterrent against invasion and occupation?

And are they not a deterrent to lesser forms of aggression, or a reason for would-be aggressors to think twice?

As a political matter, isn't it the case that countries that acquire nuclear weapons are treated as important and influential in a way that others do not?

Brazil may want them simply to be taken seriously as a major power.

Whether or not it makes sense for Brazil to acquire them -- I don't know enough about Brazil's security concerns to say it does not -- the categorical statement appears to not be correct. Nuclear weapons as a general matter -- Brazil's particular circumstances aside -- may have all kinds of political utility, and as a deterrent against certain kinds of threats they have a high degree of military utility.

Also, you may be correct, I just don't know. But how much is the cost of producing a nuclear bomb that works compared to acquiring an aircraft carrier and its aircraft and crew and training them and operating the ship and its escorts? Is a nuclear weapon program hideously expensive compared to other big-ticket military programs? It was in the 1940s. Is it still?
Rommel
September 30, 2009
2:01 am
I'd be interested to know the ethnic makeup of the European "religious students" traveling to Egypt to study Arabic. Are the majority the sons & grandsons of North African/Arab/Turkish immigrants or are they white Europeans? I have no concrete evidence, but my own observation has been that white converts often tend to be more radical. If this is the case then perhaps there is cause to monitor the situation closely..
Arcane
September 30, 2009
12:47 pm
Master Cook said, "First, the DDR does not equal Nazi Germany."

While it certainly doesn't "equal" Nazi Germany, that doesn't change the fact that it was a highly tyrannical, totalitarian police state. When I was in the Stasi museum, they pointed out that the DDR had four times as many Stasi agents as than the total number of Gestapo. So, if sheer size of the police state is any factor in your calculation, this fact alone certainly makes the DDR as bad as Nazi Germany in many ways.

Cook also said, "Second Die Linke was born of a merger of disaffected members of the SPD and the reform elements of the SED. The SED link is really pretty thin at this point."

I hope you're not German, because it'd be very sad if you are and this ignorant. In fact, you're completely wrong. The Socialist Unity Party (SED) collapsed in 1989 and the remnants formed the Party for Democratic Socialism (PDS) shortly thereafter later that year. In fact, it was originally called the SED-PDS, but they dropped the SED portion from their name in early 1990. The PDS ran as an independent party until 2007, at which point it merged with Oskar Lafontaine's party, the Labor and Social Justice Electoral Alternative (WASG), who were offshoots of the left-fringe of the SPD. The roots of The Left go all the way back to the DDR.

And finally, Cook said, "I worry about the tendency of American commentators to see Nazis everywhere."

Um, it's not the U.S. that bans Nazi symbols, books, and parties. Last I checked, that's Germany.

I truly hate leftist revisionism.