Slate.com looks at a number of apocalytic scenarios in considering how the United States could cease to exist.
If and when America expires, we probably won’t agree on the cause of death. For proof that autopsies of empires are inconclusive, consider the case of Alexander Demandt, the German historian who set out in the 1980s to collect every theory ever given for why Rome fell. The final tally: 210, including attacks by nomads on horseback, blood poisoning, decline of Nordic character, homosexuality, outflow of gold, and vaingloriousness.In tribute to Demandt, I’ve gone looking for every possible reason why America could fall. I’ve paged through the work of scholars who have studied the characteristics of declining and failed societies. I also collected theories from futurists, doomsayers, separatists, economists, political scientists, national security experts, climatologists, geologists, astronomers, and a few miscellaneous crazy people. The result: a collection of 144 potential causes of America’s future death.
You can “play” the game by selecting up to five causes of disaster that you think will lead to America’s demise and then click play. Your choices are then analyzed and your view of apocalypse is displayed.
My selected criteria matched my view of civilizational collapse influenced by my Kaplan-esque “pessimistic realist” view of the world, but the verdict on my selection was: “You are a humanitarian internationalist. You’re convinced mankind will terminate America—but at least we won’t off ourselves in the process. You’ll know you’re right when: Everyone on Earth pledges allegiance to a world government; the feds default on the national debt.” I think that’s right in the first part—America’s destruction will be man-made yet the human race will survive its collapse—but I don’t think it results in world government. Slate is taking a survey of the results and will be back with an analysis of the reader input on Friday.

Comments to this entry
Chris Swanson
August 4, 2009
1:14 am
ElamBend
August 4, 2009
2:48 am
I've thought about this before. America the polity may disappear but America the place may survive roughly the same due to geographic reasons. To good examples are South Asia and Mexico, the big divider would be the rockies. Any future polity on the East Coast though, I think would end up controlling the midwest. When you consider just how concentrated population and economic power still is on the east coast (the original 13 states together would still be the biggest economy in the world [at least this was true a decade ago]), it's easy to imagine this advantage carrying forward 500 years. Will future North American empires always be intent on 'retaking' California? I think any continental power will want two coasts.
A true breakdown in civilization a la the Romans would likely result in a drop of mobility and new ethnicities arising. Also it would be interesting to know what names would last. Florida will likely always be Florida (or some variation of), but Missouri or Oklahoma or Colorado?
One thing I am sure of, nothing last forever. However, my ancestors managed to live through the collapse of Rome and the Vikings for me to be here (and anyone who came from the area west of the Danube and East of the Urals - well congratulations!). Humanity will live on, hopefully our ancestors will be able to look back at this project with some awe.
PurpleSlog
August 4, 2009
2:52 am
M-Bone
August 4, 2009
3:10 am
Curzon
August 4, 2009
3:12 am
Curzon
August 4, 2009
3:13 am
http://cominganarchy.com/2009/03/17/martial-law-russian-alaska-and-six-autonomous-states/
M-Bone
August 4, 2009
3:24 am
I like that one about how MILLIONS of (very/fairly well educated and law abiding, high consuming, general value sharing) Canadians streaming south will DESTROY the fabric of American society.
M-Bone
August 4, 2009
3:28 am
Great, I still have time to squeeze in a trip to NY.
B. Waltrhop
August 4, 2009
5:48 am
paolo p.
August 4, 2009
10:21 am
This could be helpful
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5528
Roy Berman
August 5, 2009
2:18 am
After going back and making five picks for an alternative more AWESOME scenario I got "bloodthirsty misanthrope" instead.
Durf
August 5, 2009
4:52 am
Ed
August 5, 2009
5:01 am
Hubris, much?
Joe Jones
August 5, 2009
6:49 am
Wonderful. I didn't choose that many apocalyptic scenarios though (except for the antibiotic resistance one, which seems very plausible to me). I generally agree that America will collapse slowly and drunkenly, much like Rome. Does that make Obama the Emperor Constantine?
M-Bone
August 5, 2009
6:52 am
Curzon
August 5, 2009
8:28 am
You are a historical realist. You believe all civilizations rise and fall as an inevitable part of human society and that the United States will ultimately collapse with a whimper, not a bang. You'll know you're right when: US armed forces use foreign legions to fight foreign wars overseas, yet the nation will not send its own troops to defend its own borders from foreign invasion.
Dave Schuler
August 5, 2009
3:28 pm
However, I was surprised that I didn't find what I think is actually more likely than all but a few of the given scenarios: like the Mayas we just walk away.
Chirol
August 8, 2009
2:22 am
Nicholas
August 27, 2009
7:46 pm