Entry details

Curzon
Author

Curzon

Date

August 3rd, 2009

Tags

Comments

19 Comments so far.
Add yours.

How Is America Going To End?

Slate.com looks at a number of apocalytic scenarios in considering how the United States could cease to exist.

If and when America expires, we probably won’t agree on the cause of death. For proof that autopsies of empires are inconclusive, consider the case of Alexander Demandt, the German historian who set out in the 1980s to collect every theory ever given for why Rome fell. The final tally: 210, including attacks by nomads on horseback, blood poisoning, decline of Nordic character, homosexuality, outflow of gold, and vaingloriousness.

In tribute to Demandt, I’ve gone looking for every possible reason why America could fall. I’ve paged through the work of scholars who have studied the characteristics of declining and failed societies. I also collected theories from futurists, doomsayers, separatists, economists, political scientists, national security experts, climatologists, geologists, astronomers, and a few miscellaneous crazy people. The result: a collection of 144 potential causes of America’s future death.

You can “play” the game by selecting up to five causes of disaster that you think will lead to America’s demise and then click play. Your choices are then analyzed and your view of apocalypse is displayed.

My selected criteria matched my view of civilizational collapse influenced by my Kaplan-esque “pessimistic realist” view of the world, but the verdict on my selection was: “You are a humanitarian internationalist. You’re convinced mankind will terminate America—but at least we won’t off ourselves in the process. You’ll know you’re right when: Everyone on Earth pledges allegiance to a world government; the feds default on the national debt.” I think that’s right in the first part—America’s destruction will be man-made yet the human race will survive its collapse—but I don’t think it results in world government. Slate is taking a survey of the results and will be back with an analysis of the reader input on Friday.

Comments to this entry

Chris Swanson
August 4, 2009
1:14 am
Ha! You got the same result I did. :)
ElamBend
August 4, 2009
2:48 am
I got the same. I think the end of America will come from within, mostly from apathy, avarice and corruption.

I've thought about this before. America the polity may disappear but America the place may survive roughly the same due to geographic reasons. To good examples are South Asia and Mexico, the big divider would be the rockies. Any future polity on the East Coast though, I think would end up controlling the midwest. When you consider just how concentrated population and economic power still is on the east coast (the original 13 states together would still be the biggest economy in the world [at least this was true a decade ago]), it's easy to imagine this advantage carrying forward 500 years. Will future North American empires always be intent on 'retaking' California? I think any continental power will want two coasts.

A true breakdown in civilization a la the Romans would likely result in a drop of mobility and new ethnicities arising. Also it would be interesting to know what names would last. Florida will likely always be Florida (or some variation of), but Missouri or Oklahoma or Colorado?

One thing I am sure of, nothing last forever. However, my ancestors managed to live through the collapse of Rome and the Vikings for me to be here (and anyone who came from the area west of the Danube and East of the Urals - well congratulations!). Humanity will live on, hopefully our ancestors will be able to look back at this project with some awe.
PurpleSlog
August 4, 2009
2:52 am
"You are a humanitarian internationalist". Heh, me to.
M-Bone
August 4, 2009
3:10 am
Due to that Russian study from last year, isn't America already supposed to be over?
Curzon
August 4, 2009
3:12 am
Clearly the metrics are off -- those of us who basically expect America to slowly collapse on the weight of its own apathy and laziness ala Rome, with a stray nuke or roaming barbarians added into the mix, are generally pessimistic about human nature and human history, not liberal internationalist who expect the UN to swallow the nation whole.
Curzon
August 4, 2009
3:13 am
M-Bone -- that's 2010:
http://cominganarchy.com/2009/03/17/martial-law-russian-alaska-and-six-autonomous-states/
M-Bone
August 4, 2009
3:24 am
I turned out to be a humanitarian internationalist as well. I'm pretty sure that it just means that we favor rational discussion of issues rather than the aliens, earthquakes, super AIDS, and conspiracy stuff included in the survey.

I like that one about how MILLIONS of (very/fairly well educated and law abiding, high consuming, general value sharing) Canadians streaming south will DESTROY the fabric of American society.
M-Bone
August 4, 2009
3:28 am
"M-Bone -- that's 2010"

Great, I still have time to squeeze in a trip to NY.
B. Waltrhop
August 4, 2009
5:48 am
Anthroprogenic Pragmatist. Where am I, and why am I here?
paolo p.
August 4, 2009
10:21 am
Several causes linked together with positive feedback loops.

This could be helpful

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5528
Roy Berman
August 5, 2009
2:18 am
I also got humanitarian internationalist for my "realistic" scenario. Even though not a single one of my picks had to do with international events or forces...

After going back and making five picks for an alternative more AWESOME scenario I got "bloodthirsty misanthrope" instead.
Durf
August 5, 2009
4:52 am
After I made my picks, I got a phone call from Dan Bradley asking me to help out on his upcoming movie.
Ed
August 5, 2009
5:01 am
The Human race will survive the collapse of America? Phew. Now I feel better.
Hubris, much?
Joe Jones
August 5, 2009
6:49 am
You are a bloodthirsty misanthrope. You believe mankind is stupid and fallible and that America will destroy itself in a bloody mess. You'll know you're right when: The United States succumbs to a torrent of Russian nukes; we clone ourselves, get bum genes, and die.

Wonderful. I didn't choose that many apocalyptic scenarios though (except for the antibiotic resistance one, which seems very plausible to me). I generally agree that America will collapse slowly and drunkenly, much like Rome. Does that make Obama the Emperor Constantine?
M-Bone
August 5, 2009
6:52 am
Durf, I can beat that - Michael Bay has being mentioned as a possible director of a remake of "The Birds". Word is that it is going to Martin Campbell (Casino Royale), however. I vote for Bay, if they are going to remake apocalyptic classsics, they should at least make them great to watch drunk.
Curzon
August 5, 2009
8:28 am
Here is how I would re-categorize myself and many readers:

You are a historical realist. You believe all civilizations rise and fall as an inevitable part of human society and that the United States will ultimately collapse with a whimper, not a bang. You'll know you're right when: US armed forces use foreign legions to fight foreign wars overseas, yet the nation will not send its own troops to defend its own borders from foreign invasion.
Dave Schuler
August 5, 2009
3:28 pm
This is a pretty self-selecting group. I, too, was a humanitarian internationalist.

However, I was surprised that I didn't find what I think is actually more likely than all but a few of the given scenarios: like the Mayas we just walk away.
Chirol
August 8, 2009
2:22 am
Just got my internet back up after a week of being offline. I ended up a humanitarian internationalist too. I'd foresee devolution, decentralization and the increasing "tribal" tendencies leading towards a fracturing along the 9 nations idea. Long live the South!
Nicholas
August 27, 2009
7:46 pm
I believe that the United States will cease to exist because of Nuclear Destabilization. Threat of Nuclear War will cause anarchy in the united states and riot. The States will disband and smaller nations will form. A civil war will cause the end of the United States.