Considering a Policy Response to Mass Global Sterilization

I previously considered how the world would manage the repopulation of a country that was wiped out by a zombie epidemic—the 28 Weeks Later Repopulation Scenario. Now, Marginal Revolution considers the following scenario: a freak solar event results in half of the planet (people, animals, etc) facing the sun to be sterilized. What happens?

I would predict the collapse of many fiat currencies and the immediate insolvency of most financial institutions. Who could meet all those margin calls? Unemployment would exceed 20 percent and martial law would be declared, food rationing and guys with rifles on street corners. The affected countries would take in larger numbers of immigrants, especially young immigrants from poorer countries, to keep their societies going and to use and maintain the still-standing capital stock. Many of those immigrants might be better off in the longer run, especially if they could internalize the norms of the host country by the time the original inhabitants perished. If you let me “cheat,” I’ll postulate that genetic engineering is used to perpetuate the genes of the original inhabitants.

If a poor country were hit by this blast the eventual result probably would be mass starvation. There is a chance that social order would collapse across the entire globe, due mostly to contagion effects, multiple equilibria, and bad expectations.

MR has not analyzed the situation, only described social anarchy, and was too lazy to more thoroughly analyze other than to shout, “Dogs and cats, living together—mass hysteria!” No more babies = mass starvation in poor countries makes no sense to me. One of the first comments wryly states, “I had my vasectomy some years ago and it has not noticeably affected my ability to meet margin calls.”

Here’s how I think countries hit by mass sterilization could respond:

• Babies and children could be imported from countries with a surplus—Congo, Pakistan, Indonesia, etc. Infrastructure designed to handle youth such as schools and childcare centers would quickly empty, giving opportunities for new immigrants.
• For nation states where ethnicity is a strong part of identity, encourage expat nationals living overseas to return home and reproduce. These people could even be hired and paid to serve as “repopulators.”
• Many species would instantly become endangered and many would go extinct. Immediately tackling this to preserve biodiversity would be crucial. Most species are not as globally spread out as humans.
• Explore other creative immigration solutions.
• Cloning.

Final note: the world is facing serious problems with regards to shortages in water, food, energy supplies, raw materials, and other resources. Our environment is under tremendous stress dealing with the enormous and growing human population. Such a scenario might not be such a terrible thing 100 years after the event.

Readers care to weigh in?