This is a really crazy moment in the history of the Nation State… The pull outwards into smaller, more ethnically coherent groups is actually overcoming what was, in the 20th Century, and argument for economies of scale in Nation States. Whether that is good or bad , I don’t know, it would be such a profound shift that it would transcend good and bad, it would be a new world order.

1. Why republics? Bavarian independentists vye for a return to the Kingdom of Bavaria, not a republic. There is no explicit Republicanism in Scotland, the Basque country, etc. where there is no Republican tradition.

2. The Basque country (as coloured in your map), Padania and others have never been independent entities, nor do they have a unified language.

3. Being richer doesn’t mean subsidizing the rest. The Basque country is fiscally independent; the only shared budget with the rest of Spain is Social Security, which adds 1% to Basque GDP. So they are, in fact, subsidized by the rest of Spain.

A similar argument could be made about Southern Germany and other rich regions. Transfers are limited to 4% regional GDP, but the money Germany spends in infrastructure, trains, technology, etc. for the poorer Eastern regions ends up as bigger GDP in the richer regions, where that technology, etc. is mostly designed and produced.

4. But for Flanders and Scotland, no other region is seriously proposing seccession. Nationalism or regionalism may have broad support as a way of preserving the region’s historical language(s), getting more money/infrastructure from the central state, and general “devolution” or de-centralizing power. But that doesn’t equal separatism.

E.g. A qualifying majority of Catalans feel Catalonia is a nation, but so is Spain (”a nation made up of nations”); they feel both Catalans and Spaniards, and they speak both Catalan and Spanish fluently. And Catalonia is extremely nationalist when compared to Bavaria, Normandy and the like.

Outright separatist parties have only a marginal support in any coloured regions, but for (maybe) Scotland and Flanders.

Siliesia (Slask) in South-west Poland already has a well-organized, but small, independence movement.

The Czech Republic faces a continuing division between Bohemia and Moravia.

The Transylvania region of Romania faces Hungarian pressure for greater autonomy or independence.

Kaliningrad Oblast has long been suggested as a potential candidate for independence from Russia.

There is always the possibility that if (Southern) Cyprus refuses to accept proposals for a settlement with the north, then Northern Cyprus could be recognized as independent.

Languedoc has its own language, has a heritage of autonomy
Frisia also has its own language
Scania has had an independence movement
Prussia was the most energetic part of Germany & was illegally, under international law, dissolved first by the Nazis & 2d by the Allies
Wales,Cornwall & Galicia are Celtic nations held by non-Celtic governments

@All Remember this is just a thought experiment/scenario. It is in no way a firm prediction. I am also not intimately knowledgeable about every tiny region of Europe. Hence, feel free to argue over some or suggest new ones. Remember, some of my favorite areas are geography, borders and scenario planning. This combines all of them.

there just simply is no serious discussion or debate to be found regarding such a move, either in BW or bavaria.

I have to agree with John on the Sardinia thing: while the Sardists have my simpathy, the island alone would not survive its independence, and the same – I guess – can be said for Sicily which has not a real independentist culture anymore. And when it had, it was one of the armed hands of the local aristocracy and the Mafia.
But, John, I think that discussing is not betting like it’s not foretelling an unbeatable truth: therefore any hypothesis can be interesting as a scenario in itself.

Best regards.
Cesc.

I know you have stated that the list is not exhaustive, but clearly Ukraine has a strong Ukrainian/Russian split–and this split is far more likely to occur, or at least cause considerable international discord than most of the ones in the post.

Latvia also is struggling with its Russian population. Daugavpils in western Latvia is 90 percent Russian and would love to split off.

And the Sudtirolers would love to leave a disfunctional Italy and become a Freistaat or return to Austria.

And Poland is surprisingly still split along the former German/Russian-Austrian border, although nowhere near any serious talk of secession.