Via Irantracker (showing Iran’s official results) certainly points to an overwhelming Ahmadinejad victory. Consider, however, this image taken from the province of Isfahan where these results show Ahmadinejad took, by considerable margin, every single city:
I’d agree with Younghusband’s account, this entire deal is becoming less about the election results and more about a passive insurgency within a country whose youth, with zero personal memory of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, far outnumber those pushing the status quo. Despite that I’d offer a bit of a caveat to those in the west that have shown spirited support for both Mir Hossein Mousavi and his increasingly mammoth following.
The end of Ahmadinejad in favor of Mousavi is not going to plunge Iran into some fantastical Revolution where Tehran magically becomes a national hub of Iranian secular, liberal, democracy. Mousavi may be a reformist by Iranian measures and has indeed run on a platform of more governmental transparency, equality for women, the end of the Moral Police and privatized (free) media. Mousavi has also called for constitutional reform to shift law enforcement and media out from under the fiat of the Supreme Leader to that of the President (as the President represents the people.) However, Mousavi hasn’t challenged the overall political/governmental structure of Iran.
Mousavi won’t be asking, a la Robespierre, for the head of the Supreme Leader nor has he holed himself up in a Parisian apartment to pen up a new constitution (a la Khomeini.) His intentions are not paramount to yet another socio-political revolution. On the contrary, he’s seeking to affect change from within the <i>existing</i> socio-political system.
I’m happy to see western (specifically US) solidarity with Iran’s mass resistance to apparent political fraud but from what I’m hearing and reading the expectations of many seem to be unrealistically high.