Dynamic timeline of Iran protests

This via shloky on Twitter. I have been following it closely for the past couple of days. There is lots going on under the #iranelection hashtag. I am glad Twitter rescheduled its maintenance so as not to stifle news coming out of Iran.

I am still waiting for some solid evidence of election thievery. Speculation based on feelings in the urban centers of Iran have failed western analysts so many times over the past 30 years. Tehran would have erupted even if Ahmadinejad’s results were the same. It is a positive sign that protests have made it out to other places such as Esfahan and Masshad. But I have to ask: what is going on in the countryside? Because it is those people that got Ahmadinejad elected in the first place. Are they rioting?

Nothing seems to have come from the leaked memo showing Ahmadinejad coming in third place. However, we are beyond that now. I think the protests have taken on a different theme. This is no longer about elections and has become about repression. The protests have become a reaction to a police-state crackdown.

Enough rambling. Just would like to say I hope my friends in Tehran and up north are doing well.

Addendum: (2009-06-16 18:14 PM) The BBC reports that Iran’s Guardian Council says it is ready to recount disputed votes.

Addendum 2: (2009-06-16 21:12 PM) fivethirtyeight.com has loads of indepth analysis of Iranian election numbers throughout the past. Nate Silver reflects my skepticism in an interview with Threat Level:

bq. I would characterize the statistics as ambiguous. But there certainly is not a smoking gun as far as what I’ve found.

About Younghusband

Sir Francis Edward Younghusband (1863-1942) was a British explorer, army officer, military-political officer, and foreign correspondent born in India who led expeditions into Manchuria, Kashgar, and Tibet. He three times tried and failed to scale Mt. Everest and journeyed from China to India, crossing the Gobi desert and the Mustagh Pass (alt. c.19,000 ft/5,791 m) of the Karakoram mountain range in modern day Pakistan. Convinced of Russian designs on British interests in India, Younghusband proactively engaged in the nineteenth century spying and conflict over Central Asia between the British and the Russians known as the Great Game. "Younghusband" is a Canadian who has spent a number of years bouncing back and forth between his home country and Japan. Fluent in Japanese and English with experience in numerous other languages from Spanish to Georgian, Younghusband has travelled throughout Asia. He graduated with an MA from the War Studies Department at the Royal Military College of Canada, where he focussed on the Japanese oil industry and energy security issues. He has recently returned to Canada from Japan, and is working in the technology sector.
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5 Responses to Dynamic timeline of Iran protests

  1. ElamBend says:

    After a certain point, it may not matter what the true results were and events on the ground may become the deciding factor.

  2. Carl says:

    I doubt we’ll ever know the true numbers. I think most people in Iran have already decided what they believe was the correct election result, based on rumor and emotion. Like you said, I think it’s past the stage where the numbers really matter anymore. The gov’t has lost all credibility with a large minority, at least, of the population. It’s going to be hard to put the genie back into the bottle. It will be very interesting to see where this all goes from here. Needless to say, if AN did happen to actually win, and the clerics or army or whoever decided to pad the numbers to give him more of a mandate, this has to go down as one of the worst political moves in modern world history.

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