This via shloky on Twitter. I have been following it closely for the past couple of days. There is lots going on under the #iranelection hashtag. I am glad Twitter rescheduled its maintenance so as not to stifle news coming out of Iran.
I am still waiting for some solid evidence of election thievery. Speculation based on feelings in the urban centers of Iran have failed western analysts so many times over the past 30 years. Tehran would have erupted even if Ahmadinejad’s results were the same. It is a positive sign that protests have made it out to other places such as Esfahan and Masshad. But I have to ask: what is going on in the countryside? Because it is those people that got Ahmadinejad elected in the first place. Are they rioting?
Nothing seems to have come from the leaked memo showing Ahmadinejad coming in third place. However, we are beyond that now. I think the protests have taken on a different theme. This is no longer about elections and has become about repression. The protests have become a reaction to a police-state crackdown.
Enough rambling. Just would like to say I hope my friends in Tehran and up north are doing well.
Addendum: (2009-06-16 18:14 PM) The BBC reports that Iran’s Guardian Council says it is ready to recount disputed votes.
Addendum 2: (2009-06-16 21:12 PM) fivethirtyeight.com has loads of indepth analysis of Iranian election numbers throughout the past. Nate Silver reflects my skepticism in an interview with Threat Level:
bq. I would characterize the statistics as ambiguous. But there certainly is not a smoking gun as far as what I’ve found.