Wrongtomorrow.com is a slaughterhouse for the punditocracy, keeping tabs on predictions made by public figures “in order to hold people and media outlets accountable for pretending to see into an unpredictable future.”
On the surface this seems like a great idea: use the power of the Internet and crowdsourcing to gather the commentary of our talk radio culture in one place and prove once and for all who is for real and who is full of sh*t. However, this is a disaster waiting to happen for real analysts. The populace doesn’t have a clue about how intel forecasting works. Something like this could cause the mob to get out the pitchforks, weighing ducks and fake beards (not that the pundits aren’t already accomplishing this).
What I hope is that this site gets popular enough that public figures are more careful with their words, think before they speak and offer the citizenry well formed, nuanced policy options. What I fear is that this site will become so popular that it stifles risk-taking in the analysis and forecasting world, silencing that one person who could identify next black swan, but was too scared of the mob to do so.
I agree with Henri Poincare, one of the pioneers of chaos theory, who said that “It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all.”
Via DF. Quote in the title is attributed to Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics.