Iran’s influence in post America Iraq

With a rather large exception¹, that has some of his political base less than pleased, President Obama has nailed down his campaign promise for US withdrawal from Iraq. As of August, 2010 Iraq will “officially” enter it’s post America form and uncertainties both internally and regionally abound.

For me one of the more intriguing issues regarding the future of post America Iraq is the measure of influence it’s neighbor and former enemy will have in the coming years. More than a few pundits here in the States have suggested a premature US withdrawal from Iraq might result in the state becoming a proxy of Iran’s want for regional hegemony. I’ve found this assertion both a tad simplistic and indicative of a rather monolithic and naive vision of the two countries and their history.

The presumption seems to be based purely on the two countries most blatant commonality; that the majority of both their populations adhere to the Shia sect of Islam. This presumption is reinforced by the likes of Muqtada al Sadr, his Mahdi following and obvious ties to Iran. Evidence and allegations of Iran arming Iraqi resistance against US forces is touted as proof of the impending Persian envelopment of Iraq.

What’s largely ignored in the Iran will take over Iraq scenario is the ethnic and cultural differences that exist between the two countries, the concept of Iraqi nationalism, the “small” matter of a bloody, eight year war the two countries fought back in the 1980’s and a myriad of other details. As for the complicity of Iran in arming the resistance, well that doesn’t necessarily parlay into subservience for the receiving parties much less indicate Iraq is soon to be a vassal of it’s larger neighbor. See Pakistan’s involvement in first the Afghan/Soviet war, secondly in the Afghan civil war, lastly the current troubles in Pakistan, specifically the Swat valley.

I have little doubt that Iran has been and will continue to assert itself in the internal machinations of the very uncertain state that is the “new” Iraq. What I wonder is, to what depths will this influence reach? I’m curious for some feedback on this and suggest reading this article, which I’ll quote from below, as a mental springboard, if you will. It contains nascent aspects of not only Iran’s potential post American influence but a look at the Iraqi reaction to that influence.

“This is Baghdad,” laments one of the hotel staff, pointing despairingly at the women. “Do you see this? They all look like they are from Iran! What is our country coming to?” he wails.

Reluctant at first, one of the women agrees to talk, but insists it be done away from the crowd.

“Why is everyone dressed like this,” asks this reporter.

“Please don’t misunderstand. We don’t dress like this normally. It is too hot and this is not our style, but if we do not, they threaten us,” she explains. A friend standing by her side nods in agreement.

Another woman, a member of the election committee explained that they were told to dress that way and wear a coat, even in summer if they wanted to be on the committee.

“Iran is taking over everything,” she laments.

Another woman, an Iraqi Assyrian Christian, refuses to partake in a business meeting organized for women, because she is afraid she will be seen.

By whom? Asks this reporter, insisting that this is inside the so-called Green Zone, protected by the U.S military.

“I’m so sorry, but they will see me and it will be a problem for me” says the woman, a hint of trepidation clearly audible in her voice.

Does this mean “they” are watching inside the Green Zone?

The woman becomes very nervous: “They are from Iran,” she says. “They are everywhere. If I am seen they will cause trouble for me. They have hurt many.”

Refusing to accept the notion that Iranians are operating right under the eyes of U.S. forces, this reporter decides to have a look for himself.

Meeting with the Iraqi-American who is coordinating the event I relate the conversation just exchanged across the street.

“I am afraid she may be right,” he says, almost in a whisper.”There are Iranians all over the place,” he adds.

He goes on: “What is happening is that Iranians are coming, but they have Iraqi IDs. We keep telling the Americans that even though they may show up with Iraqi IDs they are in fact from Iran. They don’t want to hear about it. They are everywhere.”