Igor Panarin, dean at the Foreign Ministry’s school for future diplomats, former spokesman for Russia’s Federal Space Agency, and a regular on Russia’s state-guided TV channels, has predicted the collapse of the United States next year.
Panarin predicts six autonomous states, which would be under the influence of neighboring or distant regional powers. Specifically, he believes this will be the California Republic, the Texas Republic, Atlantic America, the Central North American Republic, with Alaska reverting to Russian control (Panarin has also publicly stated that the sale and purchase of Alaska in the 19th century was only a lease), and Hawaii probably going Japanese. (No word on what would happen to the Marshall Islands, Guam, Puerto Rico, or the Virgin Isles, etc.)
Sound unlikely? It sounds even more unlikely when you visualize the map, as I’ve done below:
Taking this analysis at face value for a mere moment, my immediate questions are: would a desire by the peoples of Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia to be together with southern kin override the revulsion to be governed by Mexicans? Would a Mormon rebellion try to unite the Mormons living in Utah (controlled by China), and Idaho (controlled by Canada)? Would Washington and Michigan push to join their neighbors and be governed by Canada? Would the high proportion of Hispanics in the California Republic ultimatly lead to more influence by Mexico than China?
Some of those questions show how outlandish Panarin’s view is, and how unfamiliar he is with American cultural geography (if the breakup was based on something such as the nine nations of North America, I might take this a little more seriously). But Panarin has been predicting this type of American implosion for years, and only recently have the gloomy economy given his predictions more public attention, especially in Russia where he appears on TV regularly. Indeed, Panarin as of last month now believes the date of this crackup will be next year .
We may call this blog Coming Anarchy, and we’re generally concerned about the future stability of the world, including the United States. But Panarin’s predictions are far too outlandish to be taken seriously. In fact, his analysis is nothing short of ludicrous. He bases his prediction on factors that include the financial crisis (sounds plausible), the recession (yup, it ain’t pretty), and moral decline (eh?) such as school shootings (random violence a cause of national implosion?) and rampant homosexuality (ahh, now we know what type of person we’re dealing with). Once that’s disclosed, this type of prediction speaks for itself as what it is — a traditionalist and paternalist fear of the world that believes things are always getting worse, and the certain belief that it will lead to inevitable decline.
But beyond that, Panarin’s vision of the future sounds like it comes from a Russian. Russia is the major country that splintered apart in the 1920s, 1990s, and is widely believed to be a candidate for fracturing in the near future. And speaking of Russia’s break-up in the 1920s… I’ll be back with more on this very, very soon.