U.S.A., 2010: Martial Law, Breakup, and Russian Alaska

Igor Panarin, dean at the Foreign Ministry’s school for future diplomats, former spokesman for Russia’s Federal Space Agency, and a regular on Russia’s state-guided TV channels, has predicted the collapse of the United States next year.

Panarin predicts six autonomous states, which would be under the influence of neighboring or distant regional powers. Specifically, he believes this will be the California Republic, the Texas Republic, Atlantic America, the Central North American Republic, with Alaska reverting to Russian control (Panarin has also publicly stated that the sale and purchase of Alaska in the 19th century was only a lease), and Hawaii probably going Japanese. (No word on what would happen to the Marshall Islands, Guam, Puerto Rico, or the Virgin Isles, etc.)

Sound unlikely? It sounds even more unlikely when you visualize the map, as I’ve done below:


Taking this analysis at face value for a mere moment, my immediate questions are: would a desire by the peoples of Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia to be together with southern kin override the revulsion to be governed by Mexicans? Would a Mormon rebellion try to unite the Mormons living in Utah (controlled by China), and Idaho (controlled by Canada)? Would Washington and Michigan push to join their neighbors and be governed by Canada? Would the high proportion of Hispanics in the California Republic ultimatly lead to more influence by Mexico than China?

Some of those questions show how outlandish Panarin’s view is, and how unfamiliar he is with American cultural geography (if the breakup was based on something such as the nine nations of North America, I might take this a little more seriously). But Panarin has been predicting this type of American implosion for years, and only recently have the gloomy economy given his predictions more public attention, especially in Russia where he appears on TV regularly. Indeed, Panarin as of last month now believes the date of this crackup will be next year .

We may call this blog Coming Anarchy, and we’re generally concerned about the future stability of the world, including the United States. But Panarin’s predictions are far too outlandish to be taken seriously. In fact, his analysis is nothing short of ludicrous. He bases his prediction on factors that include the financial crisis (sounds plausible), the recession (yup, it ain’t pretty), and moral decline (eh?) such as school shootings (random violence a cause of national implosion?) and rampant homosexuality (ahh, now we know what type of person we’re dealing with). Once that’s disclosed, this type of prediction speaks for itself as what it is — a traditionalist and paternalist fear of the world that believes things are always getting worse, and the certain belief that it will lead to inevitable decline.

But beyond that, Panarin’s vision of the future sounds like it comes from a Russian. Russia is the major country that splintered apart in the 1920s, 1990s, and is widely believed to be a candidate for fracturing in the near future. And speaking of Russia’s break-up in the 1920s… I’ll be back with more on this very, very soon.

About Curzon

Lord George Nathaniel Curzon (1859 - 1925) entered the British House of Commons as a Conservative MP in 1886, where he served as undersecretary of India and Foreign Affairs. He was appointed Viceroy of India at the turn of the 20th century where he delineated the North West Frontier Province, ordered a military expedition to Tibet, and unsuccessfully tried to partition the province of Bengal during his six-year tenure. Curzon served as Leader of the House of Lords in Prime Minister Lloyd George's War Cabinet and became Foreign Secretary in January 1919, where his most famous act was the drawing of the Curzon Line between a new Polish state and Russia. His publications include Russia in Central Asia (1889) and Persia and the Persian Question (1892). In real life, "Curzon" is a US citizen from the East Coast who has been a financial analyst, freelance translator, and university professor; he is currently on assignment in Tokyo.
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16 Responses to U.S.A., 2010: Martial Law, Breakup, and Russian Alaska

  1. Alfred Russel Wallace says:

    Atlantic America aligned with the EU?? I think the local vernacular would be “What is HE smoking?’…

  2. Just An Australian says:

    > rampant homosexuality?

    rampant homophobia more likely. Actually, rampant socio- and everything-phobia and the evident willingness of much of the population to go Galt now that there’s a stinkin black muslim socialist appeaser euro-philiac in charge.

    S0, The Empty quarter = Rub El Galt?


    Me thinks that Panarin is much closer to crack-up than the US of A. I look forward to hearing his opinion of Australia, should he ever bother. Hint: we’d crack up too, if it weren’t for the fact that there’s still beer. Speaking of which….

  3. Good to see the fellow presiding over Russia’s future diplomats has a rock solid grasp on reality.

  4. The man has no idea what he is talking about.

    My rejoinder to him is: Oh yeah? Russia is going to be occupied by little green men from the planet Zontar! So there!

    The fact that a person so completely out of touch is “dean at the Foreign Ministry’s school for future diplomats” among other credentials, makes me think that even the highest levels of Russian government have been brain damaged by 70 years of communist-era toxic waste dumped into the drinking water.

    This is wishful thinking disguised as analysis.

    Russia is pretty damned pathetic at this point.

    I can only imagine what the evil but sane and not stupid Molotov and Stalin would have said if one of their subordinates presented such a half-baked batch of idiocy to them. They’d have cut him off with a few icy words part way through, and he would have disappeared into the Lubyanka within a fortnight.

  5. George says:

    Actually, I thought the guy that came up with this map said the breakup of the US was going to happen this year.

    Needless to say, this is absurd in the extreme. Arizona will be under the Chinese dominated area, and not the Mexican? If Canada really annexed the central US, by shear population Canada would effectively cease to be Canada. This thing is crazy on so many levels it would take me years to enumerate all the ways he’s wrong.

    I also love how Alaska is supposed to become Russian again, when the Russians can’t even give people a reason to not leave Siberia. I don’t know how the US will fare due to the current economic crisis, but I do know that unlike what this guy says Russia and China will be hit harder and go through it worse. Russia’s economy is pretty much oil and look what happened when the price of oil collapsed. Russia’s population implosion continues. China is on the verge of major problems since Americans aren’t buying Chinese goods as much as they used to.

    Knowing all this, the US must be the one to break up? Really? Really? Shouldn’t Panarin want to think about that for a bit?

  6. Given how much outlandish stuff that is published by highly esteemed writers every day on the internet, I think the interesting thing is not the theory it self (crazy), but the enourmus penetration it has had in new and old media online…

    There must be something in Panarin’s thinking that provokes us. Plain stupidity is usually to boring to blog about.

  7. Just An Australian says:

    oh, such fun. Looking at the nine nations thing … would you call the empty quarter “Rub el Galt”?

    I think he’s a little closer to cracking up that US of A.

  8. tdaxp says:

    I’ll be in the cold, cold ground* before I kneel to the Queen of Canada!

    [* Or London, on vacation. Or Canada City.]

  9. Aceface says:

    Yes! We now have the big island.It’s about time…..

  10. Chirol says:

    Disregarding the massive crack pipe in Igor Panarin’s mouth, I’d comment Southerners would definitely fight back. There’d be no Euro-nonsense. Suspending disbelief for a moment, I could see New England being “realisticly” in Europe’s influence, but Virginia on down no way. What was it the Japanese said when considering invading the United States mainland, “behind every blade of grass there’s a rifle”

    Lastly, someone should tell him to worry about a Chinese controlled Siberia in the near future instead of nutty theories about the US.

  11. Ralph Hitchens says:

    Interesting to hear that Panarin was at one time associated with the KGB. The security apparatus appears to have provided a disproportionate number of the Kremlin’s “new men” since Yeltsin’s demise. It’s an open question how much of this is due to Putin’s influence and favoritism and how much to the possibility that these institutions truly did produce what passes for the “best and brightest” in the former USSR. Good at political infighting, perhaps, but clearly not too bright when it comes to geopolitics.

  12. mihnea says:

    Hey, no more visas for New York.. I’m game for the Eastern seaboard :D

  13. Noha says:


    There are computer games that cover this similar idea.

  14. Chirol, MA, CT, RI, maybe. NH, VT and ME not too likely. I think the level of influence would match the level of gun control in each state.

  15. ElamBend says:

    Actually, it’s a big year for Russian projection, this guy has been making the rounds saying that the US reminds him of the USSR in its final throws and is due for imminent societal collapse to be followed by complete chaos.

  16. Sierra says:

    This is ridiculous.