Other factors that seem similar in that period and our own are, the economic convergence between “late industrializers” and the northern/western European core; the scramble for overseas markets that occurred in that period of globalization as the results of; chronic overcapacity in key economic sectors and a falling rate of profit (towards normal rate) in core markets; market consolidation and financial innovation; and stiffening geopolitical competition for market share.

Key differences in the current period include the fact that the U.S. is on the downswing rather than the upswing in its power cycle; the U.S. has run current account deficits since 1971 as opposed to surpluses in the 200 years prior; China is the rising “continental” power attracting vast quantities of foreign investment as it ‘converges’ towards the economic and technological frontier; whereas the U.S. in the late 19th century had a high marginal product of capital (MPK) and a low marginal product of labor (MPL) vis-a-vis Europe, China now has a a high MPK and low MPL relative to the U.S.

Can the U.S. export its way out of this?

ARW-Reconstruction was barely planned and half-hearted from the beginning, people North and South were more concerned with fighting their Grand Crusade than realistically solving problems…I’d love to hear some guesses as to what we’re messing up today because of the panic.