The Slow Shift

When the Arabs conquered the Mediterranean, shutting off the flow of goods, money, people and security from Europe to North Africa and the Levant, the center of Western civilization moved northwards. As the synergy between mass communications, transportation and new technology empower the East, we see a lagging Asia catching up and the center of world power shifting, albeit slowly, from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Both Thomas Barnett (who I hope to meet Tuesday!)and Robert Kaplan have discussed this trend and that the US is uniquely positioned to be a major player on both sides thanks to its geography.

The announcement that Secretary of State Clinton’s first trip will be to Asia instead of Europe is further evidence.

One interesting question is, assuming the center of global power (political, economic, military) does slowly shift to the Pacific, what will it mean for Oceania’s vast array of failing and ungoverned states? Will we see more interventions and peacekeeping missions? Will the US take the lead or may Australia, New Zealand, Japan, China or India. As traffic increases will instability on the many island states there lead to intervention, or can they be bypassed and isolated given their geographic location? Will they face increased pressure to democratize or to regulate their financial systems (e.g. lots of money laundering)? It would be an interesting topic for the boys at Pacific Empire (if they are still alive).