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Chirol
Author

Chirol

Date

December 7th, 2008

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It Needed Repeating

I’ve long wondered why President Bush has failed to repeat the reasoning for invading Iraq. The logic is simple and beliefs were shared by many, including those who became critics after the fact. September 11th made clear that terrorists were no longer intent on using small scale violence or tactics such as hostage taking andh hijacking to draw attention to their political goals. A new breed of terrorists known as al-Qaeda is intent on destroying the West and killing as many people as possible in its attacks. The deaths of over 3,000 people was unmistakable. Terrorist bent on mass-casualties were naturally drawn to weapons of mass destruction.

Thus, counterproliferation quickly moved to the top of America’s national security priorities. A short list of countriesinvolved in WMD and support for terrorism was easily made: Iraq, Iran, North Korea. The undisputable fact is that Saddam had a proven history of producing and using WMD as well as supporting terrorism. Leaving him in power was a risk the President could not take anymore, which he reiterated in a recent speech.

Bush defended his decision to go to war against Iraq in March 2003 and topple Saddam Hussein, saying that after the September 11, 2001, attacks the United States could not risk the threat Baghdad posed at that time. “It is true, as I have said many times, that Saddam Hussein was not connected to the 9/11 attacks,” Bush said.

But after nearly 3,000 people died in the September 11 attacks, the United States had to decide whether it could tolerate an enemy that supported terrorism and was believed to have weapons of mass destruction, and found “this was a risk we could not afford to take.”

Sadly, I doubt anyone is listening now.

Comments to this entry

ZI
December 8, 2008
12:05 am
Sorry, you don't invade country because of a mere "risk".

It's just insane.War is costly,risky and unpredictable.The US got lucky and managed to salvage the situation before it became a total disaster(well, hopefully) but it could have been far, far worse.

No matter how you look at it, it was a bad decision.The worst part is that it didn't take a genius to ask out; "how do we get out?", "What happens next?".But they didn't, the only explanation I can find is that for height years the US was run by fools driven by ideology.

There is probably no words to describe how insane it was.The Iraq war was an attack against the most fundamental rules of the international order, an order that was created by the US.The west as a whole will continue to pay for this mistake for decades.


Georgia is already a splendid demonstration.
mihnea
December 8, 2008
12:42 am
just a brainfart, really, but what would happen if obama would lead america to war on trumped-up charges / intelligence failure? interesting, no?
Curzon
December 8, 2008
1:48 am
ZI, of course possible risk can be a sufficient causus belli -- that's the reason for most of our involvement in the wars of the past century, save for WWII. From WWI to Korea to Vietnam to Persian Gulf, rarely has the US faced a direct, legitimate threat to its homeland and national interest.

The occupation was horrendously mismanaged -- and frankly, the people who "got it right" about Iraq were the moderate-hawkish Lefists who said "Yes, I'm theoretically for invading Iraq, but we can't trust the Bush administration to do a good job." But if you say that "The Iraq war was an attack against the most fundamental rules of the international order," you're just wrong and we'll have to agree to disagree. Needless to say that Russia/Georgia has less to do with Iraq and more to do with the administration's other failings, such as refusing to push our small ally to be practical and prudent, and the fact that the defense minister was appointed when he was 29-years old has a lot more to do with Russia's action than anything else.
Just An Australian
December 8, 2008
8:39 am
I'm sorry, but this is crap. For a start, how could Pakistan be left off that list? Oh, right, it was on "our side". So right away we see that there's more at play than you say.

And even if there hadn't been, there's no way that Saddam "Mr Control Freak" Hussein would've ever given control over nuclear weapons to a free actor.

Also, I remain extremely skeptical that terrorists - even AQ - would actually use a WMD weapon. They are fundamentally in the market for hearts and minds. What's the logical consequence of using a dirty bomb or a real nuclear weapon in a terrorist attack? Inevitably it would mean that some portion of their target audience would be reduced to radioactive waste. While more violence is good for them, that's a quick way to become the most hated and reviled murderers there ever has been.

Finally, even if all that is wrong, and it was a real risk, then the invasion was one of the less effective ways to manage the risk. If there had been real weapons, they would've disappeared into the hands of what would become a free actor interested in asymmetrical warfare. (I still hear that this happened for real too). So how did this address the risk?

It was just a balls up all round. I'm inclined to believe Richard Clarke on this - it's all just excuses to justify something that was already decided.
Sejo
December 8, 2008
10:20 am
Maybe for the frst time since I started reading CA, I strongly disagree with the author's thesis.
When *truly* Saddam was building a nuclear facility, a single plane from Israel destroyed the lot and put an end to his try; when *really* Saddam was using chemicals to kill people, we - the West, as I'm European, and Italian by accident - were supporting another semi-fascist state involved in the Kurdish ethnic cleansing. Or possibly we are forgetting that Saddam himself was *our* man in the Middle East.
No, the war on Iraq, even if right on moral issues - but then again, why do we not invade Sudan or Burma? - it's been a failure from a military point of view: too few troopers, no political and strategical reasoning about the Day After, as in Afghanistan.
Al Qaida is not beaten; maybe not even touched by the military intervention. I do not think that a "war on terror" could be won at all: to win a war you have to confront an enemy like you, with an army and territory and strategical resources. They are a ghost - with some Swiss and other banking paradises' accounts - and the only way to break them up is to give more resources to the intelligence. Being captives in our own military bases in the Middle East or in central Asia is plain silly.
What to do now that the worst ever Usa administration has been involved? Actually, I think we are doing well: get out of Iraq as soon as possible and shift the troops to Afghanistan - also to help stabilize Pakistan and its tribal-Pashtun region. We've done a mess, an irrational mess.
Chirol
December 8, 2008
3:25 pm
Just and Australian: EVeryone agrees Pakistan is a major threat, but since this was post 9/11, we needed Pakistan and also preferred to work with them when possible instead of invade. That was not possible with Saddam.

Also, I agree it would seem unlikely Saddam would give WMD to terrorists but it also seemed impossible that anyone would hihack planes and fly them into buildings. Just because something hasn't happened before or seems unlikely doesn't mean it is. And if you are PResident Bush right after 9/11 where 3,000 Americans were just killed, you don't want to risk that again. Remember, we are judging the decision as made at th etime with the knowledge and assumptions of the time, not of 2008.
feeblemind
December 8, 2008
4:23 pm
'I've long wondered why President Bush has failed to repeat the reasoning for invading Iraq.' This is a microcosm of a major criticism I have had of Bush. He has never gotten out in front of any issue/presidential initiative and used the bully pulpit to make his case, on Iraq or anything else. He has always allowed the naysayers' charges to go unanswered, viewing them as 'background noise'. Debate is an integral part of politics. Bush's reluctance to participate helped cripple his presidency in my view.
jim
December 8, 2008
5:35 pm
Iraq has, by any military measure, been an amazing success. 150,000 troops invaded and occupied a country of 25 million. The casualty rate has been amazingly low. The insurgency which arose after the invasion was defeated within a few years.

You can't compare the war to some fantasy world where nobody dies. To conquer a country of 25 million and rebuild their military and police in 5 years is astonishing. To have only 4,500 coalition deaths as a result is extraordinary.
Just An Australian
December 8, 2008
8:51 pm
Chirol, don't know why it seemed impossible that people would fly planes in to buildings. There had been reports of this in the public before. Agree that the scale and location of the attack was a shocking surprise (need stronger words there).

And agree that Bush had to do something - and the invasion of Afghanistan was the obvious response, and it was all handled really well - but Iraq is not that. I stick to my belief that even if my analysis of the risks is all wrong, the invasion was the wrong response.

Jim, I'm personally sceptical that we've rebuilt anything yet. I will be greatly relieved if the country doesn't deterioriate into civil war as soon as we leave. But you're right that we have been lucky with regard to the costs.
von Kaufman-Turkestansky
December 8, 2008
8:59 pm
Regarding the Chirol-ZI exchange at the top:

Now, I do not happen to be entirely swayed by the idea that Russian move in Georgia was enabled by the Iraq war's making a precendent in inernational law (an example of this theory can be found in Salon:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/08/14/bush_putin/ ..)
But - there is also the notion (attributed as Polish point of view in this article http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0818/p01s01-woeu.html ..) that Iraq was a mistake for America to embark on in the context of European security, as it described as a sort of distraction - tying America's hand in dealing with trouble in Europe and the Caucasus. What about that as an example of unforseen effects of the involvement in Iraq?

Also (only since it speaks to the "other failings" mentioned above), Duck of Minerva had this tidbit of recent Georgia drama:
http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/2008/11/erosi-kitsmarishvili-points-finger-at.html ...
RichL
December 11, 2008
1:46 am
How absurd to defend a failed policy. The two MAJOR failures were -1- freeing Iran to make mischief as it sees fit, and -2- the economic cost of the war, and loss of prestige in the world for nearly no gain.
ron patterson
December 11, 2008
2:53 am
Although I think we bothched the occupation and Rumsfeld should have been removed much sooner, what was Bush supposed to have done. Pakistan was needed, the Saudi's who were the cuprits! were our also needed. The idea that Saddam was 'our man" in the middle east is ridicuolous since Bush I had defeated him in desert storm. Everyone thought Saddam had WMD. the U.N. the FRench the Germans. In the end I think we will see the return of iran to a closer relationship with the U.S. the payoff has been that the Sunni power has been broken. Wahabism has been turned back. The U.s. is now the broker between the sunni and shia worlds. Now Obam can deal with pakistan.