Global Trends, Part 3: The Changing Face of Conflict

The Russian invasion of Georgia’s secessionist territories was the first conflict by a major power with a smaller neighbor since the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, and the first such conflict in the current “information age.” The Global Trends Final Report has plenty of comments on the trend of change regarding conflicts, and here is a summary of their report.

The Increasing Importance of Information. Advances in information technologies are enabling new warfighting synergies through precision weaponry, surveillance, enhanced command and control, artificial intelligence and robotics. A growing number of states will threaten rapid destruction of an adversary’s critical economic, energy, political, and military and information infrastructures, and the growing importance of information technologies as an enabler of modern warfighting capabilities will make information itself a primary target in future conflicts. By 2025 some states probably will deploy weapons designed to destroy or disable information, sensor, and communication networks and systems including anti-satellite, radiofrequency, and laser weapons.

The Evolution of Irregular Warfare Capabilities. The spread of light weaponry, including precision tactical and man-portable weapon systems, and information and communication technologies will significantly increase the threat posed by irregular forms of warfare. Modern communication technologies such as satellite and cellular phones are giving future irregular forces the ability to organize and coordinate like actual armies. See: Somali Pirates.

The Prominence of the Non-military Aspects of Warfare. Non-military means of warfare, such as cyber, economic, resource, psychological, and information-based forms of conflict will become more prevalent in conflicts over the next two decades. In the future, states and nonstate adversaries will engage in “media warfare” to dominate the 24-hour news cycle and manipulate public opinion to advance their own agenda and gain popular support for their cause. See: Russian invasion of Georgia.

The Expansion and Escalation of Conflicts Beyond the Traditional Battlefield. The advancement of weapons capabilities such as long-range precision weapons, the continued proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the employment of new forms of warfare such as cyber and space warfare are providing state militaries and nonstate groups the means to escalate and expand future conflicts beyond the traditional battlefield.