Global Trends, Prelude

The Kaplan Doctrine Adopted by US National Intelligence?

The National Intelligence Council together with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has published Global Trends 2025. You can download the 33mb pdf file here and enjoy 120+ pages of an armchair foreign policy wonks wet dream in one readable package.

To summarize the lengthy report in a brief paragraph: the world in 2025 will see a wane of American power. China, India and Russia are predicted to increasingly challenge US influence in every aspect, and the next 20 years will see a period of transition to this new system. Sure, the US will remain the single most important actor, but it will be less dominant. The EU and Japan will face a far steeper decline. Mexico will become older and immigration from South America to the US will slow. Dwindling energy resources and scarce water supplies will be the two greatest causes of conflict.

The pamphlet is really an armchair foreign policy wonk’s wet dream. Just check out these items from the table of contents:

• – Latin America: Moderate Economic Growth, Continued Urban Violence
• – Muslims in Western Europe
• – Winners and Losers in a Post-Petroleum World
• – Technology Breakthroughs by 2025
• – Two Climate Change Winners
• – Strategic Implications of an Opening Arctic
• – Sub-Saharan Africa: More Interactions with the World and More Troubled
• – A Non-nuclear Korea?
• – Why al-Qa’ida’s “Terrorist Wave” Might Be Breaking Up
• – End of Ideology?
• – Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic
• – Greater Regionalism—Plus or Minus for Global Governance?
• – Future of Democracy: Backsliding More Likely than Another Wave

There is a great pile of data in this file. Over the week, I’ll be sharing the contents with readers. Stay tuned!