Although a McCain supporter and admittedly skeptical of Obama, if the latest CS Monitor is true, then I am very pleased to read about one of his major foreign policy goals: Kashmir. As the war in Afghanistan has gotten worse, the usual echos have continued: Pakistan supports terrorism, elements of the ISI support AQ or other militants. My response? Duh!
Yet, no matter how often these and similar lines are repeated, few ask why Pakistan supported (and supports) the Taliban and various militant and terrorist groups. A key reason is India. Pakistan’s conventional forces are far inferior to India’s and Islamabad has lost many a war and minor clash to New Delhi before. Only through its nuclear arsenal and support for terrorism as a foreign policy tool can Pakistan equalize the situation. The primary reason for this is the ongoing dispute over Kashmir. Obama seems to get that before you get to Afghanistan, you must go through Pakistan, and before them, you must go through Kashmir.
Secondly, NATO is not exactly sending comforting signals to Pakistan. European nations are constantly complaining, refuse to engage the enemy (excluding NL) and discuss pulling out. Considering Pakistan and Afghanistan will be neighbors forever and few in Pakistan are betting on a long term NATO presence, much less success. As part of a hedging strategy, Pakistan continues to support the Taliban to ensure a friendly future neighbor against India.
As part of his push to find new solutions to the war in Afghanistan, President-elect Barack Obama is considering a new diplomatic push on Kashmir, reversing eight years of American silence on the issue.Mr. Obama has argued that Pakistan will not fully commit to fighting the insurgency it shares with Afghanistan until it sheds historic insecurities toward India. Talks about Kashmir, the central point of contention between the two nuclear rivals, are among the “critical tasks for the next administration,” Obama said in an interview last month with Time magazine.
It is a strategy that worries Indians, who suggest the Pakistani Army is blackmailing Obama to support its claims. Yet security analysts say the Afghan insurgency has roots in the power struggle between India and Pakistan and cannot be solved without a regional approach.
Read the whole thing. While not new, it would seem to be news to some. I look forward to seeing how this develops.
I don’t think it’s a good idea.
India’s government and people would likely not take well to such a prominent American role in Kashmir, and unless the US can find that ever-elusive solution to the dispute, this episode could seriously undermine our long-term interests in the region.
The US will have to end up blackmailing India, and keep in mind that Indians will blame failures of negotiations (which are more likely than not) on the US, not just Pakistan. Similarly, Pakistanis will blame America when the process does not work out.
I am not confident enough in our chances of producing anything worthwhile to justify the risk the US would have to undertake.
Can the US identify how it will achieve its desired outcome without damaging its relationship with either country?
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Зачет! и ниипет!