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Chirol
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Chirol

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November 16th, 2008

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China to Afghanistan?

Thanks to Chief Wiggum for the head’s up.

Treat this as suspect for the moment, as I’ve only found this article on it so far. But if true, it could be a major turn in Afghanistan.

Brown: Chinese may join Afghan mission

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has announced the possibility of Chinese forces joining the multinational coalition in Afghanistan. Brown told New York’s Council on Foreign Relations on Friday of China’s possible plans for deploying troops to the war-torn country, amid the worst fighting with insurgents since the US-led coalition invaded the country in 2001.

The premier said he expected more nations not currently involved in fighting to join the Afghan mission, comprised of 41 nations. All nations should “see this as the front line” in the battle against terrorism, Brown added. The NATO has called for additional forces, a demand supported by US President-elect Barack Obama, who said he would switch the focus from Iraq to Afghanistan through a phased withdrawal.

My initial thoughts are as follows: Why is Brown speaking for the Chinese? Are they using him to float the idea as a test balloon? And second, are the Chinese interested in supporting the War on Terror and OEF? Are they looking for an opportunity to become a “responsible stakeholder”? Or, are they interested in learning up close and personal how Western troops operate for any potential future conflict? Readers, your first reaction?

Comments to this entry

Adrian
November 16, 2008
2:41 am
Tom Barnett's wet dream.
Alexandru
November 16, 2008
3:19 am
I suppose getting one's military accustomed to real war is not a bad thing, especially if you don't do it at home.

Besides, consider the future scenario of a Western intervention in Iran. Currently Western forces are present both in the west and east of Iran. If China was to be present in one of the two staging areas, under such a scenario, she would become a valued ally, one that could stand to gain for their support and cooperation.

And by gain I mean incentives to offer support at the beginning of any such operation *and* some share in the subsequent spoils of war, in the aftermath.
Alfred Russel Wallace
November 16, 2008
4:08 am
Very hard to believe...
McKellar
November 16, 2008
5:23 am
It was just a matter of time, the Chinese have too many interests in that area, from keeping Uygher militants isolated from AQ to interdicting the Heroin trade to enforcing their territorial claims. I bet they also want to give the US a good reason not to base troops in the Central Asian republics. The main things is that they want to pull off their 'peaceful rise'-- demonstrating their power abroad to impress both the international community and the home crowd without scaring anybody, esp. the new American president. Maybe then they can expand their interests in Africa without the western world crying bloody murder.

Then's their relationship with Pakistan, though I doubt they would ask for Chinese aid in pacifying Waziristan.

Of course, given the CCP's extensive history with the heroin trade. maybe they're just trying to corner the market...
sun bin
November 16, 2008
11:03 am
assuming this is real, though i am skeptical, then the prime reasom is about ETIM/etc. China always wanted to get rid of these terrorists (which was how the shanghai coop got started in first place, when bus bombs went off in the 90s). of course china wants a say about where those chinese/xinjiang originated prisoners will go after guantanamo.
sun bin
November 16, 2008
11:07 am
mckeeler...i agree about the uyghur rationale.
but CCP's extensive history with heroine trade? where did you get this? i know there were some rumour on opium planting in the 1940s, but heroine? and extensive?
opium is the biggest taboo for CCP if you know about their propaganda and history...the first and second opium war and that, mao basically got rid of all druf addicts in the early 1950s.
McKellar
November 16, 2008
11:51 am
Sun Bin: It was meant as a joke, based on that rumor you mention. Mao's suppression of the drug was pretty complete and remarkable, though, especially considering how commonplace it was in the Nationalist period.
Curzon
November 16, 2008
12:50 pm
It is Barnett's wet dream. I am very skeptical. I have the feeling that Brown is saying this for domestic political purposes, to extend legitimacy to the military role in Central Asia when its popularity is waning at home... "even the Chinese are thinking of joining us there!"
brian
November 16, 2008
3:26 pm
McKellar, Sun Bin,

The Jung Chang/John Halliday biography includes allegations that Mao engaged in the opium trade during the pre-PRC revolutionary period.

As for this proposal, it comes out of left field, and I have trouble imagining NATO and the PLA engaged in joint operations. If it happened I would imagine Afghanistan would have to be split into zones of responsibility. The biggest party I can imagine being opposed to this is India as it allows China to consolidate their position in Afghanistan and prevents a backdoor into Pakistan. China likes this as a means of warming up for potential instability in other parts of West China/Central Asia, and China is probably the one country that Pakistan would be happy to have cooperating with them against islamists in the NWFP.

The AP is also carrying this: http://iht.com/articles/ap/2008/11/14/america/NA-US-Brown-China-Troops.php

Just did a google news search of the chinese language media, didn't see any confirmation..
B
November 16, 2008
4:18 pm
I would second "all of the above" regarding a possible rationale for Chinese involvement in A-stan.

Personally, I'm suprised there was rumours of an official involvement earlier given that the two countries share a (small) border.
B
November 16, 2008
4:18 pm
*should be "wasn't rumours" not "was rumours"
al
November 16, 2008
9:52 pm
Given both the Pashtuns' and the extremists' tolerance for communism (even the quasi brand), ringside seats for such a venture would be pricey. Like Streisand at MGM Grand pricey.
ElamBend
November 16, 2008
11:11 pm
The Indians would "s--t a kitten" (as my Dad likes to say). Of course, that may be one of the advantages (for China) not yet mentioned. I'm not sure how the Russians would take it either. Interesting...
Chirol
November 17, 2008
12:42 am
Al: And how would that be different than their love for Westerners interfering in their tribal lands?
sun bin
November 17, 2008
4:15 am
OT (re:brian)

the chang/haliday book (well it is mostly written by the wrathful chang, whose wrath is of course justifiable given how much her family suffered under mao) has been widely discredited by bascially most reputable academics/historians. she basically selectively puts all the rumours together, adds a few condiments from herself, and present them as if they were proven.
but there is indeed talks that Wang Zhen's brigade was involved in opium growing around the WWII period.
Roy Berman
November 17, 2008
6:59 am
There's loads of bad stuff you can say about the CCP, but it was actually KMT people that were involved in the heroin trade. In fact, a lot of former KMT soldiers and presumably their descendants are still doing it in SE Asian, especially Burma. Good depiction of that in "American Gangster" when Denzel's character goes to make a heroin deal in person.
al j.
November 18, 2008
12:49 pm
Chirol, the key difference is the overt nature of (then) Soviet expansionism. And then that essentially all of Islam rallied against Communism at the time. But yes, a lot has changed in the last 30 years... another discussion altogether.
sun bin
November 20, 2008
6:09 am
china's foreign affair spokeman Qin Gang said (responding to brown's talk than "China CAN send troop to afghanistan",
"china's stand on afghanistan has not changed. other than the UN Security Council sactioned peace keeping action, china will not send a single soldier overseas. so there is no such issue as china sending any troop to afghanistan"

http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2008-11/17/content_10372190.htm