Entry details

Curzon
Author

Curzon

Date

November 12th, 2008

Tags

, , ,

Comments

17 Comments so far.
Add yours.

Why Obama Foreign Policy Scares Me

The University of Georgia’s Professor Han S. Park, apparently a buddy of leading Obama Asia advisor Frank Jannuzi (also an East Asia specialist for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee), had this choice comment in the Korea Times (abridged):

Q: Some people keep raising doubt on whether North Korea will give up nuclear weapons. Will it?

A: My response to that is yes. North Korea is expected to relinquish its nuclear programs and weapons themselves, if it has security assurances. No country, including North Korea, is expected to relinquish its security interest in exchange for economic and political interest. We cannot buy off North Korean nuclear arms. No matter how large the amount, North Korea is not going to relinquish its nuclear arms for money. It’s not an economic matter. We have to address North Korea’s security concerns if, in fact, we’re going to press North Korea effectively to compromise its security means.

That, in and of itself, is a fine point. But what is the definition of “security assurances,” you ask?

Firstly, stop the (South Korea-U.S.) joint military exercises. For North Korea, it’s a direct expression of hostility. Secondly, the conversion of armistice agreement into a peace pact. Thirdly, they want the mission of the U.S. military in South Korea to be redefined so that North Korea will not be the primary enemy target. Fourthly, they want American sanctions to be lifted. North Koreans are not interested in symbolic implication of it. They are interested in the prospect of U.S. lifting of trade sanctions and political sanctions imposed on North Korea. Sanctions include not only the bilateral one with the United States, but also the one imposed by the multinational ones, that is, the United Nations. Finally, diplomatic normalization with the U.S. I think that will be sufficient. Then, North Korea will give up everything.

In the last four sentences he undermines his original assertion—that security assurances are separate from economic and political interests. But I’d rather turn the keyboard over to Marmot for the real commentary:

OK, so all it will take is an end to joint exercises with a close US ally, the mission of US troops to be redirected at some other country (maybe the Mongolians?), the lifting of economic and political sanctions, and diplomatic normalization? Where do we sign? Maybe we’ll send Jessica Alba over to jack-off Kim Jong-il as service.

So why my post title? It terrifies me to think that guys like this are going to have influence in the incoming administration.

Comments to this entry

Just An Australian
November 12, 2008
12:02 pm
but none of the things he says are unreasonable. In a world where NK and SK are mutually reassured of each other's security - which is the same world where NK gives up it's nuclear program - all these changes he talks about are natural consequences. (though one never gives up joint military exercises completely, of course, but they get reconfigured, and given different names)

NK has a similar list of things to give up in exchange, with nuclear at the top - but that's mainly symbolic, unlike the genuine political changes also needed. It's called compromise. He didn't mention that, but does he need to?

The problem is how to get from here to there. That's always the hard bit. Especially with the NK's, who smell a little unstable at the present - it's only a matter of time...
Adrian
November 12, 2008
12:22 pm
So an Obama foreign policy scares you because the friend of one of his advisers said something you disagree with? OK....
James
November 12, 2008
12:35 pm
I also heard that Obama pals around with terrorists!
mihnea
November 12, 2008
1:03 pm
despite my support for obama, i don't think that what i am about to say really differs in terms of whatever president is elected. basically, there is a certain direction which is largely unavoidable for the US to approach in terms of north korea. and it really shouldn't give the country more attention than it's worth. what i'm saying is that one should see the entire conflict dispassionately, realize that the two koreas will eventually unite, regardless of external influence, one way or another, and that any steps the US takes are and continue to be driven by a certain south korean recalcitrance towards anything else than peaceful unification.

in terms of how obama presents the issue, the steps he outlines are general enough for a strategic viewpoint. and i don't think he (or mccain, should he had been elected) would have known all the details and cultural undercurrents of the issue. so letting him tone a number of general ideas that make sense and working with specialists in the region afterwards on the details is a much more welcome approach than having him blurt out details which he has no real knowledge of.

my 2c
Curzon
November 12, 2008
1:21 pm
Adrian: as written, it absolutely scares me that people like this are going to have influence on the new administration.
Robert
November 12, 2008
3:45 pm
and that any steps the US takes are and continue to be driven by a certain south korean recalcitrance towards anything else than peaceful unification.

Well, you see, that's the odd thing. Prior to this year, when Lee Myung-bak took over in Seoul, Washington was moving slower than Seoul would have liked in terms of dialogue with the North. Now, the US might be moving quicker than Seoul would like. And as US relations with the North improve, North-South relations are deteriorating... badly. It's an old North Korean tactic --- using dialogue with the United States to isolate the South. The North is very good at keeping the US and South Korea on different pages.

It'll be interesting to see who the Obama administration brings to the party and how they handle the North's BS and the North-South dynamic.
Ralph Hitchens
November 12, 2008
6:02 pm
Ah, yes, those "security concerns" of North Korea. The problem is that we are obliged to regard "North Korea" as a real geopolitical entity instead of what it really is, a populated territorial resource whose sole purpose is to enrich a demented ruling family and their entourage. The irony is that until the appearance of the "Bush Doctrine" (the one that tripped up Sarah Palin in that interview), Kim Jong-il Inc. had nothing to fear from the US. Is this an argument for the utility of "soft power" in today's world? You betcha.
Ralph Hitchens
November 12, 2008
6:06 pm
Oh, and to reassure Lord Curzon, no doubt many people claim to be or are put forward as being "close" to President-elect Obama. But this is mostly nonsense. We have elected a man who keeps his own counsel and has ice water in his veins. Be of good cheer!
McKellar
November 12, 2008
9:08 pm
Do you the rest of you buy the idea that NK's nukes are purely about security, and not economics? It seems to me that North Korea is the last big development opportunity left in East Asia, and those nukes and the dear leader's recalcitrance are the only thing keeping the top half of the Korean peninsula from being swamped with Chinese, South Koreans, Japanese, Taiwanese, and Westerners trying to build the next Guangzhou. Once that kind of development happens, though, NK disappears as an independent political entity, and becomes either a Chinese colony or yet another American East Asian pseudo-protectorate.
galen
November 12, 2008
9:14 pm
I didn't read anything that said all of those things should be granted. All I read is, "this is what the Norks really want and they're not going to be negotiate seriously and honestly if they don't think they can get it." I would call that realism. The whole idea that we can get them to just do what we want by calling them names and threatening "regime change" seems to have been completely disproven. It didn't take a GED to realize that it wouldn't work before it was even tried.

So, you're afraid of Obama's foreign policy because it holds out the prospect of being reality-based?

Here's the reality. Nothing substantive is going to happen with the North because as it stands now, win-win possibilities do not exist on substantive areas. It's called stalemate and frankly, the only things that will change this situation will happen gradually and not be picked up on by the media. In fact, they will probably happen without anyone realizing it and then we'll all ask why didn't I see this coming in hindsight.
Oz
November 12, 2008
9:37 pm
McKellar,I'm not sure what the difference between economics and security is
Jay
November 12, 2008
10:32 pm
How much aid has NK received from Japan and the US? How much aid would NK receive from Japan and the US without it's nuke development threats? We often speak of "carrots and sticks" when discussing policy toward rogue nations. We think we're managing North Korea. I'd say they've done an excellent job of managing us. The North Korean nuclear initiative is as much a crafty bit of geo-political extortion as it is about security.
sun bin
November 13, 2008
2:21 am
"maybe the Mongolians? "

don't you EVER think about it. we inner mongolians are going to dig a hole in the gobi and put some TNT there to fake a nuke, or try detonating it when a 4.0 earthquake strikes; we will also shoot some missiles at our door landing in front of our front yard, too bad the japs didn't call our front yard the Japan Desert while they occupied it but we are still going to demonstrate our missile capability that way! Ha!.... then you would kneel over and beg for us to sign the same deal you did with the norks!
McKellar
November 13, 2008
8:29 pm
OZ: That was my point, UGA's Prof. Park seemed to be saying that the nukes were a purely security issue, which could only be resolved with purely security compromises. But of course, security, economics, and politics can never really be separated out like that. I'm guessing, though, that Prof. Park is South Korean and just wants to blame the whole situation on the US military presence in Korea, and likewise thinks sending the Americans home will diffuse the conflict.

So, Obama is taking over US Foreign Policy at a moment when anti-Americanism is rife, yet those same people who condemn the US for using her military seem to really like Obama because he represents the "good" America, and not the "evil cowboy" America. Does that goodwill give him soft power, or does his image just force him to take a gentler approach to foreign policy?

(Sun Bin: when are you Neimenggouren gonna throw off your chains and return to the mother land? The real Mongolians aren't that ashamed of you, I'm sure they would take you back if you asked nicely. :) )
Just An Australian
November 13, 2008
9:19 pm
McK: gotcha. Maybe the best way to handle the whinging blamers is to give them what they want, and pull the troops out. *If* it does turn out that NK wants to wipe out SK, in the long term would it not serve US best interests to let that happen? I guess is depends on whether that would make use of nukes more or less likely.
YT
November 15, 2008
4:04 pm
Of course it's not advantageous of the two Koreas to unite. Can't sell arms to the South Koreans anymore. Much less have troops there to watch the Russians or the chinese.

Great insights, McKellar.

Just An Australian : Yep, that would reap benefits for the military - industrial nexus in the US of A. What could they call 'em? I mean the names of those WMDs unleashed on the Norks.
Adrian
November 16, 2008
2:47 am
"Adrian: as written, it absolutely scares me that people like this are going to have influence on the new administration."

This dude is "apparently a buddy" of an adviser of Obama. Obama probably doesn't even know him. Think about how many advisers Obama has (dozens if not hundreds), and think about how many friends those people have. The total will be in the thousands. The notion that Obama is responsible for everything all those people say, or that all those people will have an influence on Obama's administration, is silly.

It took me 30 seconds to go to the Obama campaign's issues page and find the following:

"They will maintain strong ties with allies like Japan, South Korea and Australia"

Kind of inconsistent with the notion of stopping joint military exercises.