How much of an assassination risk is the President-elect?

In 1963, one of America’s most publicly loved and inspirational leaders was shot dead during a motorcade. My mother, a child living in a small mountain town in western Canada, first heard the news from a teacher at school. All the children were sent home for the day. My mother recalls being very sad. It was a profound experience for all that lived through it, including foreign children. With the amount of attention given to Obama over the past, and the immense expectations he faces next year, how would America and the World react to his sudden death?

Let us consider how much of an assassination risk Barak Hussein Obama is. I would say more than George W Bush (who did survive two attempts himself). Yes, there was much discontent. One could imagine that some leftist anarcho-communist planning the free the Free World. Yet, the spectre of Dick Cheney taking the reins may have stayed their hand.

In the case of Obama I can imagine three types of potential assassins: 1) terrorists bent on popping Obama’s (and the American public’s) high on “hope”; 2) extremist ideologues determined to prevent America’s descent into so-called “socialism”; or 3) a racist group/individual that cannot stand seeing an African-American heading the table in the Oval Office.

With the lack of any successful foreign terrorist activity on American soil in the past few years, I would judge the first instance to be the most unlikely. The second is only slightly less unlikely simply for the the fact that there are not that many violent McCarthyists still around. The last one by far seems to be the most likely. In fact, Obama has already survived an assassination attempt by white extremists earlier this year.

Many newsmedia outlets have been hailing Barack Obama’s election victory as a victory over racism.¹ The election of America’s first black president has struck a serious blow in ending the race politics of Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton. However this does not put an end to the existence of racism in America. Violent racists could make another attempt on Obama. If successful an old white man would rise to the top office, a significant payoff.

The benefit to assassinating the president-elect is plain, the risks to a potential assassin are less easy to determine. In these times domestic terrorism is easier to pull off than international terrorism (e.g. anthrax scares, exploding pipelines, etc.). Authorities have an easier time finding threats outside of the border than from within. A small group or single actor could be hard to catch if they were smart. Hopefully there are a few Jack Bauers within the ranks of America’s domestic security apparatus to keep Obama — and hope — alive.

_________

1. For example see:
NYT: OBAMA: Racial Barrier Falls as Voters Embrace Call for Change
CNN: Obama to be first African-American president
IHT: Obama wins U.S. election: Racial barriers fall; Bush era rejected
↩