Where Kinetic Ops Cant Compete

While I and other commentators have welcomed increased US strikes into the ungoverned Pakistani tribal areas, a recent article brings to light part of the complexities of our more aggressive strategy. There have been five strikes within the last twelve days and while it seems some did eliminate both foreign fighters and Taliban members, no high-value-targets have been liquidated. However,

The reputed target of Monday’s attack, veteran Taliban commander Jalaluddin Haqqani, was not among those killed, and the devastation left on the ground seems only to have strengthened the Taliban’s influence on local civilians. “After about an hour, the Taliban turned up,” said Khan, who helped in the rescue work at Dande Darpa Khel. “They ringed a building and erected a tent (to treat casualties) nearby,” the 35-year-old said. “Then they recovered more bodies and wounded who were sent to hospital.”

This brings home one of the most difficult parts of organizations like these (Terrorist, criminal, etc.) to overcome, their social operations. Hamas and Hezbollah both engage in extensive social welfare programs and other community services. While the U.S., Israel or ISAF can eliminate terrorists when sighted, their respective groups are the ones on the ground picking up the pieces, tending to the wounded and/or dead and organizing locals.

The administration seems to have reached the conclusion that there is no way to alter the loyalties of those in the FATA and that despite further antagonizing them and possibly increasing local support for the Taliban (is this possible?), a more aggressive policy of UAV strikes and special forces operations is the only way forward. As some have noted, Pakistan cannot claim to be sovereign while at the same time ceding national sovereignty to locals and claiming it has no control over the area. Where this takes us remains to be seen, but it is indeed a welcome change to a strategy that yielded no results. However, it would do well to read the article closely and to step up efforts in Afghanistan to mitigate ill will after missile strikes and other operations in more ways than simply paying off locals.