Seven Years Later, a look at the state of Al Qaeda

From the LA Times comes this look at the current state of Al Qaeda, which is targeting the West—but failing. So far.

Today’s seventh anniversary of the attacks on the United States finds anti-terrorism officials optimistic that they have damaged Osama bin Laden’s network and its offshoots, but wary of the evolving nature of the threat. Newly disclosed intelligence illustrates that the [a British airplane plot in 2006] was part of a broader campaign. British anti-terrorism officials said information that couldn’t be used in court linked the plot to the bombing of the London transportation system in July 2005 and a failed follow-up attack two weeks later. Intercepts and other evidence indicate that leaders of the plots had contact with each other, converged in Pakistan and were trained by Al Qaeda bosses, officials said. But only the first attack, which killed 52 people on the public transportation network, succeeded.

Is Al Qaeda still active? To an extent, yes. The North African-inspired operation is alive and well and has killed hundreds so far this year. But initial fears that fighters in Iraq would bleed into neighboring areas, or that the campaign would inspire future terrorists has so far turned out to be wrong. Bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman Zawahiri, are still fugitives, but American missile strikes near the Afghan border has slain at least three of their frontline operational chiefs this year.

To summarize the current state of things, here’s the good and bad news:

Good News
1. Pulling off big attacks by terrorists has become much more difficult.
2. Intelligence services have penetrated terrorist networks and police surveliance has improved.
3. Al Qaeda remains determined to strike on American soil, but has been challenged by aggressive surveillance, tough border security, and a lack of local extremist Islamist communities.

Neutral and Bad News
1. Al Qaeda’s core leaders remain at large.
2. The flow of militants that originates in the Muslim world and Europe has shifted its destination from Iraq to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border zone.
3. The Internet has contributed to the rise of a generation of home-grown extremists. The prime example here is the Madrid bombing, which was an amateur operation that killed three times as many people as the London attacks, which by contrast had closer and direct links to Al Qaeda leadership.