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Curzon
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Curzon

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September 6th, 2008

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China to invade Vietnam?

Excerpted from the South China Morning Post:

Vietnam protests over Chinese ‘invasion plans’ Beijing dismisses online threats

Vietnam has formally protested to China over so-called “invasion plans” appearing on mainland websites that purport to detail the complete military occupation of the country by China.

Hanoi has twice summoned senior Chinese diplomats to voice its concerns over the material which, while unsourced and apparently unofficial, has alarmed diplomatic and military elites in the Vietnamese capital after appearing repeatedly over the past month.

The supposed plans detail a 31-day invasion, starting with five days of missile strikes from land, sea and air and climaxing in an invasion involving 310,000 troops sweeping into Vietnam from Yunnan , Guangxi and the South China Sea. The electronic jamming of Vietnamese command and communications centres is mentioned, along with the blocking of sea lanes in the South China Sea.

The reasoning?

“Vietnam is a major threat to the safety of Chinese territories, and the biggest obstacle to the peaceful emergence of China… Also, Vietnam is the strategic hub of the whole of Southeast Asia. Vietnam has to be conquered first if Southeast Asia is to be under [China’s] control again.” That’s some serious cognitive dissonance.

China has said the article does not reflect the views of the government. But Vietnam has countered that China actively polices the content of mainland websites.

Comments to this entry

tdaxp
September 6, 2008
7:30 pm
The last month -- so pretty quickly after Russia's invasion of Georgia.

Who benefits?
buzz
September 6, 2008
7:58 pm
China to invade Vietnam?...

The supposed plans detail a 31-day invasion, starting with five days of missile strikes from land, sea and air and climaxing in an invasion involving 310,000 troops sweeping into Vietnam...
Elambend
September 6, 2008
8:24 pm
I can think of one country with a deep water navy and historical experience with Vietnam that could benefit from the rumor of such a threat.

Otherwise, though, I cannot see how this benefits China. Vietnam can be dominated without invasion. The possibly oil-rich ocean areas can be taken without land invasion. Plus, if anything was to be invaded, why not Taiwan. Furthermore, why alienate the rest of East Asia. (talk about freaking out the Koreans and Japan - it would drive the former back to the U.S. and possibly tip the latter to nuclearization). I believe it's nothing more than the hopeful ramblings of nationalist citizens.
B
September 6, 2008
10:34 pm
This report (official or not) reeks of fenqing (angry youth)authorship. An interesting note about nationalistic citizens is that their feelings and (at times, scary) ambitions are often blunted by the CCP. An argument that often appears is that if China were to move quickly toward a democratic system, people with those ambitions would pose a serious bid for control of the leadership.
Jing
September 6, 2008
11:14 pm
People talking trash over the internet is not exactly an invasion plan...
Lexington Green
September 7, 2008
1:30 am
Sometimes you give your military very aggressive programs you never plan to execute on, just to get everybody fired up and doing hard practice and exercises, and to justify budgets, etc. Also, this may be part of posturing for bargaining with Vietnam or others. There are all kinds of reasons this could have been leaked, assuming it even came from the government.
Curzon
September 7, 2008
1:45 am
Jing: "Vietnam has countered that China actively polices the content of mainland websites."
Aceface
September 7, 2008
3:39 am
Wonder how this news would effect this highway project.

http://www.adb.org/Documents/News/VRM/vrm-200718.asp
Yors Truly
September 7, 2008
7:08 am
What the f!@#. God!@#$! nationalists! Is this some sorta joke? Have got to agree with Elambend.
Jing
September 7, 2008
11:23 am
Your point, Curzon? To defend everything is to defend nothing. Censors will only be active on topics which they feel undermine the legitimacy of the state and party.

Pot & Kettle from Vietnam. Considering they routinely unleash their own fenqing at the Chinese embassy with chants of "dey tuk ur Land!" whenever they wish.
Curzon
September 7, 2008
12:36 pm
Jing, is your point that the invading Vietnam is not Beijing's policy, or that the Vietnamese are getting a dose of what they deserve?
Aceface
September 7, 2008
1:20 pm
Fenquing? Unleashed in Hanoi?
I've heard that one before....
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-04/18/content_2844015.htm

"To defend everything is defend nothing" indeed....
Aceface
September 7, 2008
1:36 pm
This is better.From Reuters

"Anti-Japanese Protests Held at Japanese Embassy in Vietnam
Apr. 17, 2005 7:03pm JST

HANOI (4/17, Reuters) Anti-Japanese protests were held in front of the Japanese embassy in Vietnam’s capital city Hanoi.

Wearing headbands, the participants shouted anti-Japanese slogans into bullhorns and waved banners written in English and Chinese characters. One of the banners read “Japan get out!”

The demonstrators are said to be expatriate Chinese living in Vietnam."
B
September 7, 2008
3:20 pm
Some (although obviously not all) Mainland students studying abroad are on government scholarships and I've heard rumours that many are actively encouraged to participate in such matters of national importance (like sticking it to the Japanese while in a foreign country).
Richard
September 7, 2008
4:33 pm
In Feb of 1979 the Chinese DID invade Vietnam and got a bloody nose in the process.. perhaps as many as 13000 dead.
Jing
September 8, 2008
2:45 am
Both Curzon.

Actually Aceface I was referring to this.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5j2rw7qqR9vew-eOrGCoDgp6S69Kw

and this.

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/china-protests-inspire-vietnamese/
Euv
September 8, 2008
1:02 pm
hey Elambend, did u no dat taiwan is part of China?
idiots these days...
permaterry
September 8, 2008
2:42 pm
Invaders throughout the centuries have tried Viet Nam on. They're still there.
dave
September 8, 2008
6:13 pm
War sounds like fun to me when talking about it, but when it
happens and someone die especially some of your relative die
it's not fun anymore.
Rommel
September 9, 2008
12:19 am
At the risk of baiting...

Euv, you are either a Chinese nationalist troll or you are a troll of an even sadder breed..
Either way your comment was crass and disrespectful to say the least and its kind has no place in this gentleman's forum.
That said, ElamBend, in his geo-politically learned ways needs no defense by me and I would wager he is dignified enough to ignore your ignorant drivel.
Mitch H.
September 9, 2008
11:07 pm
Richard: That was in 1979, when the country was full of battle-hardened veterans of ten years of pitiless war with the biggest, meanest military machine on the planet. The PLA was a rotting hulk just tottering its way out of the Cultural Revolution. That outcome was overdetermined.

Now? The PLA is one of the major economic players in the world economy, and the American War generation in Vietnam are antiques or dead. I wouldn't call it a rollover, but a Chinese victory might be plausible, if they caught the Vietnamese unprepared. The US certainly isn't positioned to do anything about it, I don't think. It isn't as if Vietnam was an island...
dave
September 10, 2008
5:58 am
VN is 85million people, it can have at least 20 million
soldier if China want to invade, I am sure the invader don't
want to spend that much. cost too much money to get something
in return. After all, Vietnamese are people with culture, not
like so called "rebellious" tibetian by China, OR rebellious
Georgia by the Russia whose population just a few millions to
be easy harrass. I know people like to talk bullshit on the internet the facts are people with average IQ knew already.
you want to know about anything go to www.wikipedia.org
dave
September 10, 2008
6:09 am
If you want to buy product that're working good and last long try made in USA or Japan. "Made in China" don't buy it.
Yours Truly
September 10, 2008
9:38 am
Dave, sorry my man. But it's real hard to find anythin' made in US or Japan these days. All of 'em corporations have all moved to China. I'm wonderin' if my BodyGlove T - shirts are even REALLY made in the US...

Got to agree with you, I doubt the Mainland Chinese are so d!@#headed as to invade any of their neighboring states. They just ain't that crazy.
What If? (China invades Vietnam edition)
September 10, 2008
3:05 pm
[...] of an alleged Chinese plan to invade Vietnam, published by the South China Morning Post (hat tip: Coming Anarchy). Vietnam has formally protested to China over so-called “invasion plans” appearing on [...]
Jing
September 11, 2008
1:51 am
I've found that there is an American tendency to overplay Vietnam's strengths in the Sino-Vietnamese war of 79. Almost as if they were making up for having lost their own war with Vietnam by saying haha you lost too. The operational timetable for the war from the Chinese perspective obviously did not include time to occupy Hanoi. The Chinese objectives were twofold; to force a Vietnamese withdraw from Cambodia and to test the extent of the Soviet-Vietnamese military alliance. They failed at the former but demonstrated that the Soviets indeed were unwilling to commit their military forces directly to protect Vietnam.

The "bloody nose" scenario which every tom, dick, and harry gets from the internet is based on Vietnamese claims of Chinese casualties (real reliable there) and partly on the gross ignorance of many authors when it comes to the definition of the term casualty. A casualty is a broad term that refers to killed, wounded, missing, etc. Too many people think that casualty simply refers to killed.
lirelou
September 11, 2008
1:18 pm
Of course the Chinese military have plans drawn up for Vietnamese contingency operations, but I seriously doubt they were 'leaked' to the news media. As for Vietnam being invaded throughout the centuries, they have been the invaders as often as the 'invadees'. They annihilated Champa to take what is today Central Vietnam, and then stole everything south of that from the Cambodians about the time of the 13 colonies. The one invader who left the most lasting impression on Vietnam is China, given that Chinese culture lies at the very heart of Vietnamese culture. Indeed, the threat of a possible permanent Chinese presence was what spurred 'Uncle Ho' to agree to the return of the French to Tonkin in 1945. Until recently, China could have been described as having the world's largest military museum, the PLA. That is changing and China is developing a maritime power projection capability, and appears to be improving its airborne forces. Is this cause for concern for Vietnam? Yes as regards Vietnamese claims to the Spratleys, but only to a much lesser degree as regards the survival of the Vietnamese state. Vietnam has the terrain and population to make itself a bitter pill to swallow. It could not survive an all out Chinese push to obliterate it, but it can make such an effort so potentially costly that invasion would always remain China's remedy of last resort.
Curzon
September 11, 2008
4:19 pm
Spoken like an area studies expert, Lirelou. Thanks for that.
Chinese Bloggers « 1000 Questions
September 12, 2008
4:31 am
[...] in Uncategorized Apparently Chinese Bloggers want to invade Vietnam now.  Now I’m not saying Chinese bloggers have a strong grip on reality at the best of times - [...]
Jennifer
September 24, 2008
2:05 pm
Euv, even though People's Republic of China claimed Taiwan but they do not have the entire control over Taiwan. Today, the things that are made from Taiwan are still marked 'Made from Taiwan' so that means that PRC does not have the control over the economy. The main reason PRC is trying to attack Vietnam is to get the oil from the South China's Sea and oil = economy. Therefore, what I am trying to say is that PRC will have to take control over Taiwan to completely claim Taiwan as its own. So Elambend was right, PRC still needs to attack Taiwan (but they should not, Taiwan is a great place, nobody wants war there).
Anyway, Vietnam isn't easy to dominate over. If it is, Vietnam would not be Vietnam, it'd probably be a part of France or USA by now.
Usually people would think that Vietnam is a poor country and is very easy to control over...etc. They are indeed wrong. Vietnam's economy is growing rapidly as the quality of a Vietnamese's life is getting better and better everyday. Nowadays, you can see expensive cars all around Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City or other growing cities. Vietnam is developing well, why should we start another war so we can start the whole thing all over again? There are people out there who went to Vietnam once and wanted to go again. If the war starts, nobody will get to go to Vietnam anymore. Noodle soup won't be available anymore as many other great food will not be there as well. (If you're thinking that you'll get noodle soup in other countries, you are wrong. Sure they have them, but the ones in Vietnam are always the best).
Yours Truly
September 24, 2008
5:49 pm
Jennifer : I really doubt that the chinese are in any position to start invadin' her neighbors...fact being they've got enough INTERNAL TROUBLES of their own.

& it would be TRAGIC for 'em to start attackin' countries where there are very substantial populations of ethnic chinese o'er in those places. Anyways, it would be foolhardy to assume that wagin' war with the Vietnamese is gonna be a cakewalk.

Not so much 'bout the material wealth of the populace in a country (in fact material obsession kills a peoples' esprit de corps), but the Vietnamese have always been tough fellas.
Yours Truly
September 24, 2008
5:55 pm
Quite DISSED with all 'em nationalists & "patriots" of all stripes. S!@#$%^&*()_s can go f!@#$%' FIGHT for their countries, instead of 'em REAL PATRIOTS in their countries (re : armed forces personnel). People who have never even damn used weapons or involved 'emselves in war before should just shut the hell up. MHO.
Jennifer
September 25, 2008
10:50 am
Yours Truly: Don't worry, I was just making a point to Euv. Personally I don't think the Chinese are going to do it as those who wrote the so-called 'conspiracy theory' are probably people who haven't been through proper military training. If this theory was actually real, the news should be spread all over the world by now (which it didn't, only a small part of the news leaked through).
What I really wanted to know is that why are they posting this on the internet? If this article wasn't true, the Chinese government will probably track down whoever wrote this. So what kind of benefit are they getting from posting up a piece of false information?
GambleLover
November 14, 2008
9:07 am
Hello everyone,

I do not think China has any plan to do this. It is apparently someone's evil trick again to increase the tension between the two countries and take advantages from this at the end. USA? Japan? Vietnam? or what? I am wondering if Vietnam is so naive to believe this? Vietnam made a voice for some reasons other than the mentioned non-existing plan. What reasons? You guys think about it.