Contemplating Georgia, Part 6: Kazakhstan

While some former Soviet satellites neighboring NATO have hardened in the face of Russia’s invasion of Georgia, more remote Central Asian nations that should be concerned for both their security and their exports are remaining relatively calm, and mildly critical of Russia, despite allegations to the contrary.

Consider Kazakhstan. At present, its oil is shipped by tankers to Baku, where it enters the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and is exported out of Turkey. The construction of this pipeline meant that Kazakhstan could reduce its reliance on Russia for sending its energy exports to market. Once concern was that the conflict would result in a shift of how oil flows through the region, and a recent Turkish report stated that Kazakhstan may decide to pump its oil through Russian pipelines. Stratfor reports that this decision could be the first signal that Kazakhstan is abandoning its plan to diversify its energy options away from Russia’s sphere of influence.

However, Kazakhstan made a strong official response to the allegation that it was pulling out of the BTC pipeline:

The article questions Kazakhstan’s commitment to the existing resource transportation agreements saying that “some countries [Kazakhstan] seem to be bailing out of the existing [pipeline projects]”. Let us leave aside the mysterious “Kazakh official” who was “quoted” as the source of such information, I would like to address here the core of the issue… we have signed a whole set of mutually binding agreements with Azerbaijan and other participants on creating the Caspian transportation system. And let me assure you that Kazakhstan does not even mull the idea of stepping back and leaving the project. We stick to our commitments and have no intention of letting down our partners, that way or another.

Presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan met on August 13 and publically stated that “conflicts such as the one that unfolded between Russia and Georgia must be resolved solely on the basis of international law and only in the political and diplomatic way.” Kazakhstan will probably to continue to talk the same way regardless of what Russia does one way or the other, as long as Astana can keep its export roots open.