While Georgia-Russia tensions have mostly brought involved the US, EU and aforementioned two parties, Germany has stepped in with its own plan for peace in Abkhazia. A Spiegel article notes the plan consists of three phases,
Phase one of the German plan envisages a year of trust-building measures. These would include declarations renouncing violence and the return of around 250,000 refugees to the province. The second phase would see the beginning of reconstruction work, with Berlin organizing a donors’ conference to drum up the necessary funds. The third and crucial phase would involve finding a political solution to the conflict, essentially whether Abkhazia should become reintegrated into Georgia or be granted independence.
Interestingly, the article notes that all sides have found the proposal reasonable. While making declarations renouncing violence should be simple for all parties involved, I’m skeptical of the return of a quarter of a million Georgian refugees. While the UN did recently adopt a resolution calling for the right of return of Georgian IDPs to their homes in Abkhazia. However, given the poor state of Abkhazia’s infrastructure and security, it is questionable how many people would return given that there may be nothing at all to return to and surely no economic or educational opportunities for young people. Additionally, given that the province was historically inhabited by a majority of Georgians, their return would dilute the Abkhaz to the point where the results of a future referendum on the area’s status may be a foregone conclusion.
I’ve checked the UN and German Foreign Office’s websites but have been unable to find further information. If readers have access sources in other languages or are able to find more information, please post links in the comments section. More to come as the situation develops and more details become available.
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