Through 2005 and 2006 we wrote several articles on the increased power of Nepal’s Maoist movement. You can read those old posts here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.
At that time both Chirol and myself were very pessimistic about the progress of the Maoist insurgency, the handling of Nepal by foreign powers, our expectations for the new parliament, and the vote to abolish the monarchy. Now, as the new parliament convenes, it today declares the nation a republic, ending the dynasty which has ruled over the Himalayan nation since before the United States was independent. The King is expected to be given 15 days to vacate the palace.
The Maoists, who demanded abolishing the monarchy as a condition precedent to joining the parliament, are naturally delighted. The King will be replaced by ceremonial president. Most power will reside with the prime minister, and the Narayanhity Royal Palace will be turned into a national museum. The public appears to generally accept and welcome the transformation. There have been no demonstrations in support of the king, save for some pamphleteering and bombing by some minor militant Hindu factions. But what terrifies me is that the Maoists have the mandate to rule. They will form the government, and the first Prime Minister of the country will be a Maoist and a member of a group that the U.S. lists as a terrorist organization.
Then there’s the control of violence. For more than a year, Maoist forces have been scheduled to merge into the same national army it has been fighting brutal battles with over the past decade. As an elected of the second largest political party in Nepal stated, “An ideologically indoctrinated army cannot enter the national army… The Army has a historic role and must not be an instrument for any party. It must not be polluted.” And Maoist Chairman “Prachanda” is poised to become Prime Minister and yet maintains his position as commander of the Maoist People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Also, the paramilitary organization and Maoist-affiliated Young Communist League continues to use violence and intimidation to maintain control of villages and towns outside the capital.
Such is the state of affairs in Nepal. Things have progressed in a direction more positive than we feared 2-3 years ago, but there remain many real challenges to moving forward.
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COMMENTS / 7 COMMENTS
Linkspasm - June 5, 2008 « PurpleSlog added these pithy words on Jun 05 08 at 8:12 pm[...] http://cominganarchy.com/2008/05/28/the-end-of-nepals-royal-house : [Nepal] The Maoists, who demanded abolishing the monarchy as a condition precedent to joining the parliament, are naturally delighted. The King will be replaced by ceremonial president. Most power will reside with the prime minister, and the Narayanhity Royal Palace will be turned into a national museum. The public appears to generally accept and welcome the transformation. There have been no demonstrations in support of the king, save for some pamphleteering and bombing by some minor militant Hindu factions. But what terrifies me is that the Maoists have the mandate to rule. They will form the government, and the first Prime Minister of the country will be a Maoist and a member of a group that the U.S. lists as a terrorist organization. [...]
ElamBend added these pithy words on 28 May 08 at 6:49 pmI predict that when the eventual real opposition arises, it will not go well.
Mark added these pithy words on 29 May 08 at 8:46 pmObama isn’t far from a Maoist, either.
R. Elgin added these pithy words on 30 May 08 at 5:57 amThe real tint in the glazing is China. I’m surprised at the lack of reporting regarding the meddling in Nepal by the PRC.
I am not optimistic about the political future of Nepal either but, god willing, they will out grow this idealistic Maoism and evolve into an effective government for the people.
ElamBend added these pithy words on 30 May 08 at 6:53 pmBy real opposition I mean another party or parties that would somehow threaten the Maoist party’s hold on power. It has been rare for a communist party to gain power and then let that power go to another party via elections.
Right now, ditching the king and declaring a republic is pretty popular with everyone except a few bomb-throwing monarchists. However, at some point, people are going to object to a second army, or the intimidating ways of the Maoist in the styx. (or in the cities if they start acting up there).
The real test of the Maoists’ beneficence will not be at the apogee of their power, but when the honeymoon is over. Given their political roots, I don’t expect a happy marriage. Then again, as you say, things have gone more positively than could have been expected.
Michael added these pithy words on 07 Jun 08 at 12:14 amSome of it will depend on the Maoist’s and government’s willingness to assimilate one another. Things will be easier if at least some Maoists are willing and able to join the pre-existing power structure than if the two groups remain wholly separate.
