A question to readers:

I recently predicted that hostilities between Georgia and Russia will increase through the end of the year. This is due primarily to Kosovar independence now being used as an ostensible reason to ramp up aggression against Tbilisi. However, although official annexation is a possibility, using the alleged Kosovo precent (more here), it is indeed more likely that Moscow will neither annex Abkhazia or South Ossetia nor recognize their independence. Why? Because indefinitely prolonging the crisis combined with the ability to instantly inflame it whenever geopolitically useful to Russia is far more valuable a tool.

What would be the short and long term benefits of actually recognizing the two regions? What would be the short/long term benefits of annexing them? Do they outweigh the benefits of the status quo? With the volatility of energy prices and Europe’s reluctance if not cowardice vis-a-vis Russia in mind, isn’t the status quo far more useful? Additionally, with Russia’s own separatist problems in the Caucasus, outright recognition is unlikely leaving annexation as the only remotely likely possibility.

Meanwhile, Abkhazia asks for a formal military alliance with Russia. I’m somehow reminded of a quote about a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing.

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