The Wine or the Sword?

Last year, while talking with several Georgian students outside an Orthodox church, they pointed at the large statue of a woman which towered over Tbilisi. It was “Mother Georgia” they said and in her hands were a bowl (for wine) and a sword. “We greet our friends with wine and our enemies with the sword” they explained to me, implying what Georgians are most proud of, namely that wine was “invented” in ancient Georgia. Not much has changed for Georgia with the passage of several centuries. It remains small and sandwiched between hostile powers.

It is of course not necessary to remind readers of the long standing and ongoing conflict between Russia and Georgia. Most recently, Russia began formalizing its ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both regions which Russia has unofficially annexed. Several days ago, Russia brazenly shot down a Georgian UAV offering no apology. It seems now that Georgia is fighting back, and with an option I’ve dicussed here before, blocking Russia’s WTO membership. Readers can expect increasingly aggressive actions by Russia and potentially official annexation and/or recognition of their independence before the year’s end.

While the recent NATO summit in Bucharest went well in terms of missile defense and seemingly well in terms of future Georgian and Ukraine membership, one major problem was overlooked. While did indeed issue statements promising to take both countries in the future – face-saving for all sides – it left them dangling in the wind unprotected until the next NATO summit in December. Without official NATO backing and with an increasingly spineless Germany and France, both countries should expect stepped up Russian aggression through the end of the year. Both Europe and North America will need to come out strongly on the Georgian side by offering warnings and reasonably clear threats to prevent Russian action from going too far. Russia will only respect the sword, and Georgia and its Western allies must be willing to use it.