I’m rather absurdly busy with professional matters and will continue as such for the rest of the week—but to post in haste, check out Robert D. Kaplan’s book review of ‘The Ghost War’ in the IHT:
In “The Ghost War,” the New York Times reporter Alex Berenson has fashioned a smart, economically written spy novel that imagines a future clash with the Chinese. As such, it’s a novel for policy wonks, with a very sophisticated vision of how a conflict with China could come about, akin to the kind of war-gaming scenarios that occupy Washington strategists. Here, a power struggle between the military and civilian wings of the Chinese leadership and the accidental ramming of a Chinese trawler by an American destroyer ignite an unwelcome conflict. Adding to the complexity is a new alliance between China and Iran, a secret one between China and the Taliban, the attempted defection of a North Korean spy to the West and the usual moles on each side.
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I Dream Awake » Blog Archive » If War With China Goes Kinetic added these pithy words on Mar 24 08 at 9:16 pm[...] From the always fantastic comments on Coming Anarchy. [...]
Scott Hughes added these pithy words on 23 Mar 08 at 6:39 pmIf the United States went to war with China, how would would the U.S. pay for the war? It gets its funding by borrowing from China.
mihnea added these pithy words on 23 Mar 08 at 11:14 pmi’m still laughing over what scott said. priceless :D
elambend added these pithy words on 24 Mar 08 at 12:24 amWell, that would be a lot of bonds we’d never have to pay back. Of course, as it stands right now, we are going to pay them back for pennies on the dollar as the USD depreciates.
Kidding aside, one would hope the importance of both economies to each other would preclude war; 1914 is not an encouraging precedent, though.
Lexington Green added these pithy words on 24 Mar 08 at 3:08 pmCountries go to war when they think they have to, and figure out how to pay for it on the fly, including the old favorite “print money”.
1914 is indeed the least encouraging precedent there is. Everyone correctly said, “the great powers cannot go to war, they will ruin the world economy and all go broke.” They did it anyway, and it was worse than anyone predicted in every dimension including financial.
The financial sophistication of the Anglosphere powers over the centuries, their ability to tax and borrow and juggle the books, especially during major and protracted wars, has been possibly the singlem predominant source of strength and cause of victory. The Anglosphere powers have won every hegemonic-scale war for over three centuries. If yo have to bet, the trend is your friend.
A protracted conflict with China would be an unmitigated global catastrophe. I have a friend at PACOM who is the sharpest-clawed hawk I know. His comment, very seriously: “If conflict with China ever goes kinetic it will be the worst thing that has ever happened.” But we will ride out the catastrophe much better than China will if, God forbid, it comes to it. Their system is brittle along many axes.
Pray for peace.
Michael added these pithy words on 24 Mar 08 at 8:12 pmLexington, is their system brittle like an old pot, like a Ming vase or like a hand-grenade?
Lexington Green added these pithy words on 25 Mar 08 at 1:03 amAll of the above! Let’s hope they can keep it from breaking, for all our sakes.
ElamBend added these pithy words on 25 Mar 08 at 1:35 amSo, a toast to Chinese stability for 2008 and beyond.
kende added these pithy words on 25 Mar 08 at 5:40 amehem A toast to Chinese stability with a free Tibet… Just don’t drink it out of that Ming vase.
GI Korea added these pithy words on 26 Mar 08 at 9:03 pmI can definitely buy that a military accident that killed Chinese civilians could be demagogued for political purposes within China.
Politicians from a US ally South Korea demagogued a military accident in 2002 that killed two Korean civilians to launch months of protests that featured hundreds of thousands of people, the media lied regularly about what happened to further inflame the public, and it all ultimately led to an anti-US candidate being elected president.
http://www.usinkorea.org/1st/TRAGEDY/index.html
Such a thing happening in China I find very easy to believe. However, would it lead to war? Common sense would think not, but stranger things have happened.
Aceface added these pithy words on 27 Mar 08 at 4:40 amI know this site is dedicated for Kaplan,But can I say he is not that much informed about East Asia,compared to Balkans and Middle East?
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