Comments on: Robert Kaplan on ‘The Ghost War’

By: Aceface

Aceface — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 04:40:19 +0000

I know this site is dedicated for Kaplan,But can I say he is not that much informed about East Asia,compared to Balkans and Middle East?

By: GI Korea

GI Korea — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 21:03:55 +0000

I can definitely buy that a military accident that killed Chinese civilians could be demagogued for political purposes within China.

Politicians from a US ally South Korea demagogued a military accident in 2002 that killed two Korean civilians to launch months of protests that featured hundreds of thousands of people, the media lied regularly about what happened to further inflame the public, and it all ultimately led to an anti-US candidate being elected president.

http://www.usinkorea.org/1st/TRAGEDY/index.html

Such a thing happening in China I find very easy to believe. However, would it lead to war? Common sense would think not, but stranger things have happened.

By: kende

kende — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 05:40:15 +0000

ehem A toast to Chinese stability with a free Tibet… Just don’t drink it out of that Ming vase.

By: ElamBend

ElamBend — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 01:35:59 +0000

So, a toast to Chinese stability for 2008 and beyond.

By: Lexington Green

Lexington Green — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 01:03:47 +0000

All of the above! Let’s hope they can keep it from breaking, for all our sakes.

By: I Dream Awake » Blog Archive » If War With China Goes Kinetic

I Dream Awake » Blog Archive » If War With China Goes Kinetic — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 21:16:29 +0000

[...] From the always fantastic comments on Coming Anarchy. [...]

By: Michael

Michael — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 20:12:31 +0000

Lexington, is their system brittle like an old pot, like a Ming vase or like a hand-grenade?

By: Lexington Green

Lexington Green — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 15:08:26 +0000

Countries go to war when they think they have to, and figure out how to pay for it on the fly, including the old favorite “print money”.

1914 is indeed the least encouraging precedent there is. Everyone correctly said, “the great powers cannot go to war, they will ruin the world economy and all go broke.” They did it anyway, and it was worse than anyone predicted in every dimension including financial.

The financial sophistication of the Anglosphere powers over the centuries, their ability to tax and borrow and juggle the books, especially during major and protracted wars, has been possibly the singlem predominant source of strength and cause of victory. The Anglosphere powers have won every hegemonic-scale war for over three centuries. If yo have to bet, the trend is your friend.

A protracted conflict with China would be an unmitigated global catastrophe. I have a friend at PACOM who is the sharpest-clawed hawk I know. His comment, very seriously: “If conflict with China ever goes kinetic it will be the worst thing that has ever happened.” But we will ride out the catastrophe much better than China will if, God forbid, it comes to it. Their system is brittle along many axes.

Pray for peace.

By: elambend

elambend — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 00:24:31 +0000

Well, that would be a lot of bonds we’d never have to pay back. Of course, as it stands right now, we are going to pay them back for pennies on the dollar as the USD depreciates.

Kidding aside, one would hope the importance of both economies to each other would preclude war; 1914 is not an encouraging precedent, though.

By: mihnea

mihnea — Sun, 23 Mar 2008 23:14:29 +0000

i’m still laughing over what scott said. priceless :D

By: Scott Hughes

Scott Hughes — Sun, 23 Mar 2008 18:39:14 +0000

If the United States went to war with China, how would would the U.S. pay for the war? It gets its funding by borrowing from China.