I’m rather absurdly busy with professional matters and will continue as such for the rest of the week — but to post in haste, check out Robert D. Kaplan’s book review of ‘The Ghost War’ in the IHT:
In “The Ghost War,” the New York Times reporter Alex Berenson has fashioned a smart, economically written spy novel that imagines a future clash with the Chinese. As such, it’s a novel for policy wonks, with a very sophisticated vision of how a conflict with China could come about, akin to the kind of war-gaming scenarios that occupy Washington strategists. Here, a power struggle between the military and civilian wings of the Chinese leadership and the accidental ramming of a Chinese trawler by an American destroyer ignite an unwelcome conflict. Adding to the complexity is a new alliance between China and Iran, a secret one between China and the Taliban, the attempted defection of a North Korean spy to the West and the usual moles on each side.
About Curzon
Lord George Nathaniel Curzon (1859 - 1925) entered the British House of Commons as a Conservative MP in 1886, where he served as undersecretary of India and Foreign Affairs. He was appointed Viceroy of India at the turn of the 20th century where he delineated the North West Frontier Province,
ordered a military expedition to Tibet, and unsuccessfully tried to partition the province of Bengal during his six-year tenure. Curzon served as Leader of the House of Lords in Prime Minister Lloyd George's War Cabinet and became Foreign Secretary in January 1919, where his most famous act was
the drawing of the Curzon Line between a new Polish state and Russia. His publications include
Russia in Central Asia (1889) and
Persia and the Persian Question (1892).
In real life, "Curzon" is a US citizen from the East Coast who has been a financial analyst, freelance translator, and university professor; he is currently on assignment in Tokyo.
If the United States went to war with China, how would would the U.S. pay for the war? It gets its funding by borrowing from China.
i’m still laughing over what scott said. priceless :D
Well, that would be a lot of bonds we’d never have to pay back. Of course, as it stands right now, we are going to pay them back for pennies on the dollar as the USD depreciates.
Kidding aside, one would hope the importance of both economies to each other would preclude war; 1914 is not an encouraging precedent, though.
Countries go to war when they think they have to, and figure out how to pay for it on the fly, including the old favorite “print money”.
1914 is indeed the least encouraging precedent there is. Everyone correctly said, “the great powers cannot go to war, they will ruin the world economy and all go broke.” They did it anyway, and it was worse than anyone predicted in every dimension including financial.
The financial sophistication of the Anglosphere powers over the centuries, their ability to tax and borrow and juggle the books, especially during major and protracted wars, has been possibly the singlem predominant source of strength and cause of victory. The Anglosphere powers have won every hegemonic-scale war for over three centuries. If yo have to bet, the trend is your friend.
A protracted conflict with China would be an unmitigated global catastrophe. I have a friend at PACOM who is the sharpest-clawed hawk I know. His comment, very seriously: “If conflict with China ever goes kinetic it will be the worst thing that has ever happened.” But we will ride out the catastrophe much better than China will if, God forbid, it comes to it. Their system is brittle along many axes.
Pray for peace.
Lexington, is their system brittle like an old pot, like a Ming vase or like a hand-grenade?
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All of the above! Let’s hope they can keep it from breaking, for all our sakes.
So, a toast to Chinese stability for 2008 and beyond.
*ehem* A toast to Chinese stability with a free Tibet… Just don’t drink it out of that Ming vase.
I can definitely buy that a military accident that killed Chinese civilians could be demagogued for political purposes within China.
Politicians from a US ally South Korea demagogued a military accident in 2002 that killed two Korean civilians to launch months of protests that featured hundreds of thousands of people, the media lied regularly about what happened to further inflame the public, and it all ultimately led to an anti-US candidate being elected president.
http://www.usinkorea.org/1st/TRAGEDY/index.html
Such a thing happening in China I find very easy to believe. However, would it lead to war? Common sense would think not, but stranger things have happened.
I know this site is dedicated for Kaplan,But can I say he is not that much informed about East Asia,compared to Balkans and Middle East?