I’m rather absurdly busy with professional matters and will continue as such for the rest of the week—but to post in haste, check out Robert D. Kaplan’s book review of ‘The Ghost War’ in the IHT:
In “The Ghost War,” the New York Times reporter Alex Berenson has fashioned a smart, economically written spy novel that imagines a future clash with the Chinese. As such, it’s a novel for policy wonks, with a very sophisticated vision of how a conflict with China could come about, akin to the kind of war-gaming scenarios that occupy Washington strategists. Here, a power struggle between the military and civilian wings of the Chinese leadership and the accidental ramming of a Chinese trawler by an American destroyer ignite an unwelcome conflict. Adding to the complexity is a new alliance between China and Iran, a secret one between China and the Taliban, the attempted defection of a North Korean spy to the West and the usual moles on each side.

Comments to this entry
Scott Hughes
March 23, 2008
6:39 pm
mihnea
March 23, 2008
11:14 pm
elambend
March 24, 2008
12:24 am
Kidding aside, one would hope the importance of both economies to each other would preclude war; 1914 is not an encouraging precedent, though.
Lexington Green
March 24, 2008
3:08 pm
1914 is indeed the least encouraging precedent there is. Everyone correctly said, "the great powers cannot go to war, they will ruin the world economy and all go broke." They did it anyway, and it was worse than anyone predicted in every dimension including financial.
The financial sophistication of the Anglosphere powers over the centuries, their ability to tax and borrow and juggle the books, especially during major and protracted wars, has been possibly the singlem predominant source of strength and cause of victory. The Anglosphere powers have won every hegemonic-scale war for over three centuries. If yo have to bet, the trend is your friend.
A protracted conflict with China would be an unmitigated global catastrophe. I have a friend at PACOM who is the sharpest-clawed hawk I know. His comment, very seriously: "If conflict with China ever goes kinetic it will be the worst thing that has ever happened." But we will ride out the catastrophe much better than China will if, God forbid, it comes to it. Their system is brittle along many axes.
Pray for peace.
Michael
March 24, 2008
8:12 pm
I Dream Awake » Blog Archive » If War With China Goes Kinetic
March 24, 2008
9:16 pm
Lexington Green
March 25, 2008
1:03 am
ElamBend
March 25, 2008
1:35 am
kende
March 25, 2008
5:40 am
GI Korea
March 26, 2008
9:03 pm
Politicians from a US ally South Korea demagogued a military accident in 2002 that killed two Korean civilians to launch months of protests that featured hundreds of thousands of people, the media lied regularly about what happened to further inflame the public, and it all ultimately led to an anti-US candidate being elected president.
http://www.usinkorea.org/1st/TRAGEDY/index.html
Such a thing happening in China I find very easy to believe. However, would it lead to war? Common sense would think not, but stranger things have happened.
Aceface
March 27, 2008
4:40 am