With the independence of Kosovo, it seemed that Russia had backed down on its threats to recognize other separatist regions and indeed it did. But it was unlikely there would be no reaction which left analysts wondering when the second shoe would fall. It has:
The breakaway Abkhazia region in Georgia has called on the UN and other international bodies to recognise it as independent. The appeal was made by the separatist Abkhaz parliament on Friday, a day after Russia said it was lifting trade restrictions on the territory. [...]On Wednesday, Georgia’s other breakaway region, South Ossetia, asked the UN and other international bodies to recognise its independence. [...]
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Denisov said the situation regarding Abkhazia had completely changed. He denied the move had anything to do with recognition by some states of Kosovo’s independence. Russia says Kosovo remains part of Serbia.
In lifting trade restrictions and thus withdrawing from a 1996 treaty which bans trade, economic, financial, transport, and other links with Abkhazia, Russia opens the door to openly support the Abkhaz with weapons among other things. The treaty was signed by 12 CIS members and it remains to be seen whether any others can be cajoled into following Moscow’s lead. Indeed, as RFERL notes, the timing was meant to coincide with the recent NATO meeting and remind Europeans, wary of NATO expansion, that Russia will do whatever necessary to block its march eastward.
The move by Russia could be a first step towards annexation of the territory, a move that would essentially go unpunished unless Georgia were a member of NATO. After all, Moscow has already issued Russian passports to Abkazians and South Ossetians in a clever move to provide cover for future involvement to “protect its citizens.” In fact, both regions even voted in Russia’s recent elections. One thing is for sure, although Russia has nothing to offer the world, it can and will continue to play the spoiler.
- BROWSE / IN TIMELINE
- « Welcome to Russia
- » Glorious Insults from Golden Age of the English Language
COMMENTS / ONE COMMENT
jim added these pithy words on 08 Mar 08 at 3:17 amAlthough things don’t look good in Russia at the moment, I still hold out hope that someday Russia will become a normal European country.
Do you think that is possible over the next several decades? What signs should we look for to see if there is progress?
The expansion of the EU and NATO seem like progress, as more and more Russian citizens will interact and absorb the habits and culture of Europe.
Perhaps naively I hope that Ukraine, if brought fully into the NATO/EU fold, could serve as a guide to Russia.
I know this has been a tantalizing dream in the West seemingly forever, and that Russia always ends up choosing to be a rival civilization to Europe and not part of the greater West. Still … I hold out hope. I still get nervous about all those nukes.
SPEAK / ADD YOUR COMMENT
Comments are moderated.
