Vice President Carlos Lage (57) or National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon (71) who are both capable and running the country as much as Raul. All three are reformers potentially in the direction of Gorbachev or Deng but Washington is locked down by Miami. Fidel has not left a power vacuum. The immediate post-Fidel moment has very nearly come and gone. Other options are available. Cuba is in the midst of an oil boom with US companies cut out of the deal. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the North Cuba Basin has potential reserves of between 4.6 and 9.3 billion barrels of crude. There is no “democratic” revolution in the works. The Cuban people are not interested in the Washington Consensus “all for us, nothing for you” model, but then, who is anymore? Now that Putin has been screwed on Kosovo, who knows of the possibilities.

That would be interesting. I think that Carlos Lage has the potential of being liberal. There are stories of Cuban/Floridians going to Cuba and looking up where grandpa used to live and of course the homestead has been subdivided and 16 families are living there. Those 16 families get extraordinarily defensive. Beyond that, I think Cuba could unwind pretty quick. I dont think it would go past the Venezuelan model, but despite the propaganda, Venezuela is pretty liberal – liberal as in theoretically speaking – Deng, etc.