Serbia Chooses

This weekend’s elections in Serbia brought a sigh of relief to those all over the EU. Boris Tadic was victorious over nationalist Tomislav Nikolic. While most news outlets are emphasizing Serbia choosing Europe and pro-Western, it would behoove them to remember that with regard to Kosovo, the entire country is of one mind. Tadic, who supports Serbia’s joining the EU is just as anti-Kosovar independence as his challenger. His victory means only that Europe and America can likely expect someone a bit more levelheaded and less likely to make any sudden and dangerous moves.

Yet, Kosovo’s breaking away will present an enormous challenge for both Tadic and his party. Should they not deal with the move in a way that satisfies the general public, or rather should Serbs not be pleased with how they think the government handled it, Tadic could be out not and another dangerous “stabbed in the back” myth could be created by Serbian nationalists as happened in post WWI Germany.

Serbia remains the key to stability in the Balkans precisely because it is torn between integration and revenge. While the rest of the former Yugoslavia has come to terms with its past and is confidently moving forward, Serbia has not. Indeed, another real danger largely disregarded in the media is not only the chance for violence after Kosovar independence but the chance for civil unrest and violence within Serbia. Only time will tell. Kosovo claims to be ready to declare independence in the next few days.