Today’s German Tagesschau hints at something (German link) I’ve also been wondering, namely, why the Turks are claiming such wild success having deal “strong blows” and stood up against terrorists when almost nobody has been killed and no proof has been given that anything of value was hit.

It is one thing for the Kurds to deny much has been hit but even the Turks have said little about the concrete accomplishments of the mission. Their public statements’ focus has been on taking action, doing whatever is necessary and saving face. Has the reams of intelligence the US is giving Turkey been bad? Have the PKK simply moved, having had weeks of warning from Turkey? Has the US tipped off the Kurds in order to keep both sides happy and find a face saving solution? At the moment it is hard to say. It is exceedingly unlikely that the PKK did not disperse from the Qandil mountains. Having little infrastructure in the first place, there was little to pack up and move and as a successful guerrilla group, melting back into the environment is what they do best.

As Turkey’s limited raids and air strikes continue, it will be interesting to see the ratio of rhetoric to actual success. At the moment, it would seem the former is far greater than the latter.

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