From the Christian Science Monitor comes a look at six places on the globe where a “warmer” world poses different problems. I think the magazine, like most contemporary observers, mistakenly look at “climate change” as the issue, which is just one of an assortment of environmental degradation issues. But the review is a solid overview of challenges in general, and as Robert D. Kaplan noted in the namesake article of this blog:

Mention “the environment” or “diminishing natural resources” in foreign-policy circles and you meet a brick wall of skepticism or boredom. To conservatives especially, the very terms seem flaky. Public-policy foundations have contributed to the lack of interest, by funding narrowly focused environmental studies replete with technical jargon which foreign-affairs experts just let pile up on their desks.

It is time to understand “the environment” for what it is: the national-security issue of the early twenty-first century. The political and strategic impact of surging populations, spreading disease, deforestation and soil erosion, water depletion, air pollution, and, possibly, rising sea levels in critical, overcrowded regions like the Nile Delta and Bangladesh—developments that will prompt mass migrations and, in turn, incite group conflicts—will be the core foreign-policy challenge from which most others will ultimately emanate, arousing the public and uniting assorted interests left over from the Cold War.

Now on to the CSM’s list:

1. Nepal: Unforeseen flash point: During the past decade, a change in precipitation patterns and the shrinking of glaciers have put added stress on Nepal’s impoverished western hill districts. There is a lack of irrigation, and as snowmelt and glacial runoff have been interrupted, Maoists have stoked these frustrations to turn people against the government. Many highland Nepalis have left, overcrowding lowland districts along the border with India. Twenty years ago, 18 percent of the population lived in these districts, which make up one-fifth of Nepal’s area. Today, nearly half of all Nepalis live there.

2. Indonesia: Unintended effects: To reduce its carbon footprint, the European Union wants 5.75 percent of its nations’ vehicles to run on biofuel by 2010. The result in Indonesia has been an unprecedented acceleration of deforestation to create plantations for palm oil—one type of biofuel—to serve Europe supposedly pro-environment measures.

The impact is twofold. First, the pace of deforestation has made Indonesia the third-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind only the United States and China, in part because of fires lit by some Indonesians to clear land, making an area that covers 0.1 percent of Earth’s landmass accounts for 4 percent of global emissions. Second, Indonesia’s indigenous people rely on the forests for their livelihood. As the deforestation accelerates in already volatile regions like Papua and West Kalimantan, tensions are also mounting.

3. Lagos, Nigeria: Megacity on the brink: Not only might sea-level rise directly affect Lagos, but migration patterns suggest that villagers displaced by the effects of global warming will head to the city seeking jobs, a city already crowded far beyond capacity. “Even in a time of relative stability, there is very little civil governance, and very little ability to serve huge numbers of people with basics like electricity, clean water, healthcare, or education,” writes US Air Force Gen. Charles Wald (ret.) in “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,” a report by CNA Corp., a research firm in Alexandria, Va. “If you add rising coastal waters and more extreme weather events … it makes the possibility of conflict very real.” Criminals and antigovernment groups already have a substantial presence in the city. The instability created by the effects of climate change could provide them with the ability to work more vigorously.

4. United States: A new global ‘National Guard’?: Hurricane Katrina raised concerns that the US National Guard could be overstretched by its dual roles as both war fighters and as first responders during disasters. Climate change could provide the same test for all of America’s armed forces. With climate forecasters suggesting that major weather disasters will likely increase, the United States military is being forced to consider whether it has the resources to continue to play a major role in providing disaster relief. And can US forces could attend to both disaster relief and war-fighting? “If the frequency of natural disasters increases with climate change, future military and political leaders may face hard choices about where and when to engage,” says a study by research group CNA Corp.

5. Arctic: Melting ice and the race for oil: In August, a Russian submarine planted a Russian flag on the seabed beneath the North Pole. As Arctic ice floes melt, suboceanic oil fields never before accessible will become reachable. Russia, Canada, Norway, and the United States are seeking to extend their authority as far as possible in the seafloor. And it could even pit traditional allies – such as the US and Canada – against each other.

6. East Africa: Desertification beyond Darfur: UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon has controversially linked the conflict in Darfur to global warming. Though experts are wary of connecting Darfur directly to climate change, they say the rapid desertification of East Africa has played a role – and that this trend is only accelerating. Decreased food production has set off large-scale migrations across the region. In Somalia, this created the instability upon which the warlords capitalized. And the same patterns hold true across East Africa – from Kenya to Uganda to Eritrea, with desertification and rising populations creating enormous pressures on shrinking resources. Food production in some parts of the region is expected to decline by as much as 70 percent in the future, according to a recent UN report. It is the speed of this change, accelerated by global warming, that is of greatest concern to many analysts.

“It’s not the absolute scarcity of resources – it’s always been dry in Africa – but it is the rate of change,” says security analyst Geoffrey Dabelko. “When it changes so rapidly, institutions don’t have time to respond.”

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