Uncommon Sense

The more news we seem to read, the less we know. Whether infotainment, political gossip masquerading as analysis or superficial explanations, the more access to news we have, the more it tends to reinforce said nonsense. I’d like to start with a few common assumptions that most people now have regardless of any pesky evidence otherwise.

Resurgent Russia: The news is filled with articles about a resurgent, rising and belligerent Russia. Has the US invested so much political, diplomatic and military capital in Iraq that Russia has started misbehaving? Hardly, Russia’s dramatic and pathetic decline in the 1990s was deeply resented by Russians and Vladimir Putin has sought from the beginning of his time in office to remedy this. Russia’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy since 2004 is as much a means to reach such goals and impress the domestic audience as it is a partial failure of the US to contain Russia. Russia seeks legitimacy from its old foe and we’ve given her an opportunity to attain some.

North Korea wants the bomb: Yes and no. North Korea did indeed secretly develop and successfully build a nuclear weapon. However, most people view this in a strictly military sense or worse Hollywood sense: a crazy bad guy with the bomb. The real and often overlooked question is why. No state acquires nuclear weapons to use them. Their value lies in deterrence and legitimacy. North Korea wants both. While it may be politically and economically weak, militarily it’s strong. North Korea has longed wanted both aid and recognition from abroad but has had nothing in trade. Nuclear weapons now were the perfect solution to achieve both from a position of strength.

Iran wants the bomb: As Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently noted in NY, nuclear weapons didn’t help Iraq nor the Soviet Union which is true to a point. And contrary to fear mongers, Iran would be completely annihilated in a retaliatory strike by the US and/or Israel meaning it’s no more likely to use the bomb than other nations with it. Acquisition of nuclear technology should instead be seen within the context of its entire foreign policy. Iran has always been big on word but not action. Iran’s goals are to move America out of its neighborhood or at least keep it at arm’s length and in addition, reassume its traditional role as regional power. Both can be furthered by the development of nuclear technology which will bring increased diplomacy and political benefits helping to end its isolation. Like North Korea, Iran hopes to reap diplomatic and economic benefits as North Korea is doing. And at the very least, it could act as a successful deterrent against future attack.

While the lack of complex dialogue regarding such issues isn’t surprising, it is indeed dangerous and increasingly so as ordinary Americans continue to ponder their country’s role in the world. While alarmist news reports have been and will continue to be the norm, it would behoove our elected leaders to better explain some of the security situations we’re facing. But with elections coming up, that seems unlikely.