Our man Chirol gave us his Petraeus report pre-analysis, and next comes Robert D. Kaplan’s post-analysis in The Atlantic. Kaplan suspects that America will be in Iraq “with tens of thousands of troops for years to come” contributing to bottom-up progress, evident in the Petraeus report:

The editorial writers at The New York Times remind us that military progress is meaningless without political progress. By that logic, since there has been no tangible national reconciliation at the top levels of government in Baghdad, there has been no meaningful progress at all. But that may be too neat an equation. If the surge has helped fortify political progress on the ground at the tribal level in Anbar and other regions of the country—by solidifying the Sunni alliance against al-Qaeda—then perhaps we should not rush toward the exit gates. Just because we can’t engineer change at the top does not mean that we can’t engineer change at the bottom in a way that will gradually and organically affect the top. As Crocker said, “The current course is hard; the alternatives are far worse.”? Indeed, as Petraeus indicated, a rapid withdrawal would unleash centrifugal forces in Iraq that would tear the country further apart, whereas a slow and gradual withdrawal over time will improve the situation.

Saddam’s solution was top-down, using fear to keep the multiethnic hodgepodge of Iraq in line. In order to have a true democracy a certain level of trust between sub-national groups is necessary. Thinking that level of trust was already inherent was a big mistake for the pro-democracy planners of the war. But remember McCain: “We are where we are.” Signs that tribes are coming together is good, and will hopefully lead to a better exit by America. But remember the experience of T.E. Lawrence: the number one priority of a tribe is itself. Even if America makes a face-saving exit by sticking around long enough for a partially operating government, I doubt the survivability of such an organization in the long-run. Call me a pessimist.

Anyways, thanks to Lex for sending this in. This is for you Lex:

My blog wants to
Kaplan all the time,
Kaplan all the time,
Kaplan all the time!

See the original here.

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